NFL Predictions Week 9: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

The NFL doesn't have time to wait for Black Monday anymore. It's Black November now, and head coaches' heads are already rolling. First Joe Philbin of the Miami Dolphins and now Ken Whisenhunt of the Tennessee Titans—not to mention coordinators like the Detroit Lions' Joe Lombardi and Indianapolis Colts' Pep Hamilton.

For some NFL teams, not only is the young 2015 season not so young anymore, but it's already over. For a privileged few—namely, the seven teams with six or more wins—the regular season's almost over too; they're well on their way to locking up a division title or postseason berth.

As we round into Week 9, it's hard to imagine the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals or Denver Broncos doing anything but cruising past their far-behind rivals to division titles. Even though the Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals have teams closer on their heels, they're still clearly the class of their divisions and conference.

But the NFL is a cruel and tricky beast, and some of Week 9's matchups pit contender against contender and pretender against pretender. A couple of key upsets, a couple of divisional surprises, and who knows what could happen?

Our experts know—at least as well as anyone can—and they've come together to project for you, by majority vote, the upsets, blowouts, sleepers and peak performances of NFL Week 9.

The voting list for this week includes:

Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst

Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer

Brad Gagnon: NFL Analyst

Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer

Ty Schalter: NFL Analyst

Brent Sobleski: NFL Analyst

Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer

Sean Tomlinson: NFL Analyst

Biggest Upset

David Seelig/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Oakland Raiders (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers—five votes

Five of our experts jumped aboard the Raiders bandwagon, and why not? Having won two in a row and four of their last six, the Raiders are playing very good football.

The Steelers defense has been fantastic, ranked fifth in points allowed, but not quite good enough to keep the Cincinnati Bengals from outscoring a just-back-from-injury Ben Roethlisberger in Week 8. Of course, the Raiders aren't the Bengals, and the Steelers should be ready to take out their frustration on the visitors.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier explained why he and four of our other experts picked Oakland:

"

I saw a bunch of the other guys picking this game, and I braced for one of those B/R editorial memos. "Folks, make sure that your upset of the week is really an upset." I called Uncle Carmine, who called his bookie, and it turns out the Steelers are 4.5-point midweek favorites. That's what Carmine calls a "sucker's spread," built on the perceptions of both teams over several years (and that voodoo logic that one team is "due to lose") instead of what is happening on the field in 2015. Anyway, I am grabbing this Upset of the Week before that spread shrinks down to 1.5 or so before kickoff because everyone realizes that the Steelers have no one who can cover the Raiders receivers.

"

Others receiving votes: St. Louis Rams (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers, none

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark

Biggest Blowout

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Expert Consensus Pick: Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers—six votes

At first blush, it seems like the talented Falcons' dream season is over, their bubble popped, their wings melted. But no, say our experts.

Despite being 1-2 in their last three games—against teams whose collective record in other games is 6-13—our experts overwhelmingly love the Falcons to put it all together and blast the 49ers.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport explains why:

"

It's come to this for the San Francisco 49ers, a team that played in Super Bowl 47. No, really...they did. Almost won even.

Now the 49ers are a 2-6 punching bag, Colin Kaepernick has been benched and Sunday against the Falcons the Niners will start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.

I repeat, the 49ers are going to start Blaine freaking Gabbert under center in an NFL game. On purpose.

I'll just leave this here and let it finish making my point.

"

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots vs. Washington 

Higher Total: DeMarco Murray Rushing Yards or Cowboys RBs Rushing Yards?

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Expert Consensus Pick: Cowboys RBs—six votes

It's one of the juiciest stories of the offseason—heck, of any offseason. The NFL's reigning Offensive Player of the Year, DeMarco Murray, was allowed to leave in free agency by a team in win-now mode, the Cowboys. Not only that, but the team didn't seem all that bothered to see him go.

His nominal replacement, Joseph Randle, even taunted Murray on the way out the door. Randle downplayed Murray's 2,261 yards from scrimmage to the Dallas Morning News (h/t Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper), saying there was "a lot of meat left on the bone."

Fast-forward to this fall, and Murray is averaging a miserable 51.2 yards per game—a career low. The Cowboys are averaging just 127.9 rushing yards per game as a team, down from 147.1 in 2014. Randle, the theoretical chair of the Cowboys' running back committee, has just been released.

So who outruns whom?

Two of our experts picked Murray, who had his first 100-plus-yard game three weeks ago. The rest went with the depleted Cowboys tailbacks, who, despite missing Murray and Randle, will be facing a much softer run defense.

Others receiving votes: DeMarco Murray—two votes

Biggest Mismatch

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Blaine Gabbert vs. Falcons D/"anything"/"anyone"/"life"—six votes

Poor Blaine Gabbert. It's not his fault.

Well, I mean, yes, it is his fault that he is not very good at football. But it is not his fault he will be starting for the 2-6 49ers against the 6-2 Falcons. That blame rests partly on the taut, tattooed shoulders of the deposed starter, Colin Kaepernick, but mostly on the hairy, windbreaker-clad shoulders of head coach Jim Tomsula.

Gabbert shouldn't be in this position, taking over for a much more talented starter. He shouldn't be facing a decent Falcons defense that's ranked 13th in points allowed. He certainly shouldn't be trying to outscore the likes of Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman.

But a cascade of terrible decisions made by very well-paid men have put Gabbert in a position to fail, and that's exactly what our experts believe he'll do.

Others receiving votes: Broncos pass rush vs. Indianapolis Colts offensive line—two votes

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Jameis Winston—four votes

Winston is coming off what might be his first true signature win: an overtime defeat of the division-contender Atlanta Falcons. He didn't put up huge numbers but did account for two touchdowns and zero turnovers.

With the all-over-the-place New York Giants coming to town on the heels of a devastating, exhausting loss, it's quite possible Winston and his always dangerous receiving corps get caught up in a shootout with Eli Manning and Company.

Two other quarterbacks received two votes each: the Chicago Bears' Jay Cutler, going against the disappointing San Diego Chargers defense, and Cleveland's Johnny Manziel, who...well, he's facing the Bengals in a matchup that seems all but impossible. Then again, we've seen Manziel shock us with a couple of big plays already this season; maybe the Bengals will underestimate him, and he'll repeat the feat.

Others receiving votes: Johnny Manziel, Jay Cutler—two votes each

More Passing Yards: Eli Manning or Jameis Winston?

David Goldman/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Jameis Winston—five votes

Fresh off an epic 101-point, 1,024-yard shootout in New Orleans, Eli Manning and the Giants are going back down South to Tampa Bay.

Jameis Winston and Company are up to the challenge, having put up a season-high 297 team passing yards in Week 7 against Washington. Manning hung 350 yards on New Orleans in Week 8, but that's obviously an outlier; he's averaged a much more manageable 253.7 yards over the other seven games the Giants have played. 

Further, the Giants rank dead last in passing-yardage defense; Winston should be primed to have one of his most productive games of the year—especially if, as happened in Week 8, the two teams get caught up in a shootout.

Meanwhile, three of our experts still think the veteran will outproduce the rookie regardless. Manning's outgaining Winston by an average of 30.4 yards per game in 2015; he'll have to be as cold as the rookie is hot to be bested this Sunday.

Others receiving votes: Eli Manning—three votes

More Turnovers: Blake Bortles or Jets QB?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Jets QB—five votes

When our experts were polled, it hadn't yet been determined whether Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start against the Jacksonville Jaguars; per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles announced Fitzpatrick will get the nod.

The good (bad?) news is that whether it was Smith or Fitzpatrick almost didn't matter; they both have a tendency to turn it over. That's why, by a narrow five-to-three margin, our experts picked whoever would dress out in green and white over Jaguars signal-caller Blake Bortles.

Indeed, Bortles is throwing interceptions on 3.0 percent of his passes this year; that's not amazing, but it is lower than Fitzpatrick's 3.3 percent. Despite the Jets' excellent pass defense, our experts like Bortles to protect the football just a little bit better than Fitzpatrick.

Others receiving votes: Blake Bortles—three votes

Sleeper RB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Jeremy Langford—three votes

Full disclosure: Langford, a Michigan State product, is a favorite of your humble columnist. Langford was the goat of Week 8, dropping a critical third-down pass that essentially cost the Bears a critical divisional win.

But with starter Matt Forte out, Langford is in—and NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon explained why he and two other experts see a big opportunity for this sleeper: "The rookie fourth-round pick hasn't been particularly good when spelling Matt Forte this year, but now with Forte hurt he's likely to get a huge workload against a Chargers defense that has surrendered a tied-for-league-high 5.0 yards per carry and a league-high 11 runs of 20-plus yards."

Another committee guy about to get a full-time look because of injury, DeAngelo Williams, finished right behind Langford with two expert votes.

Others receiving votes: DeAngelo Williams—two votes, Giovani Bernard, LeGarrette Blount, Darren Sproles

Sleeper WR Performance

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Michael Crabtree—two votes

Week 9's Sleeper WR Performance category was as diverse and hotly contested as any one category can possibly be and still come away with a consensus pick. Eight experts nominated seven different receivers, and all of them have a great case to be an under-the-radar success in Week 9.

The lucky winner is Michael Crabtree.

A forgotten man after leaving one side of the Bay Area for the other, Crabtree has slowly reminded football-watchers why he used to be one of the most exciting talents in the game. He's getting stronger seemingly by the week, and his seven-catch, 102-yard, one-touchdown performance against the vaunted Jets defense in Week 8 was his most impressive performance as a Raider.

In Week 9, Crabtree will face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing very well on defense but don't have the cornerbacks the Jets do. No offense to any of the other fine receivers nominated, of course, but the combination of Crabtree's play and opportunity gives him the edge.

Others receiving votes: Anquan Boldin, Martavis Bryant, Allen Hurns, Charles Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Rueben Randle

Sleeper TE Performance

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Heath Miller—four votes

In a piquant twist, the Sleeper TE Performance category flips the script from the preceding slide. After agreeing Raiders receiver Michael Crabtree has a great matchup against the Steelers, our experts realized Steelers tight end Heath Miller has a great matchup against the Raiders.

A motivated Ben Roethlisberger and Company against the 31st-ranked pass-yardage defense is easy math to add up. Despite the Steelers' outstanding stable of wideouts, Miller is No. 2 on the team in both receptions and yards.

Getting the second-biggest slice of what will likely be a big pie sounds like great news for football fans and fantasy owners looking for a sleeper tight end.

NFL Lead Writer Matt Miller tabbed Vernon Davis as his sleeper. The closest thing to a trade-deadline deal the NFL got resulted in one aging Pro Bowler teaming up with another—and as it happens, 31-year-old Davis needs a quarterback like Peyton Manning as much as Manning needs a tight end like Davis. Keep an eye on this situation too.

Others receiving votes: Gary Barnidge, Vernon Davis, Jared Cook, Delanie Walker

Best Defensive Performance

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Falcons defense—four votes

Dan Quinn has done an incredible job in his first season as a head coach, especially in his specialty, defense. His Falcons have transformed from the league's worst defense (by yardage allowed) to a top-11 unit.

Going up against the imploding San Francisco 49ers and newly promoted quarterback Blaine Gabbert is a defensive coach's dream come true—and a welcome respite on the heels of three straight disappointing performances.

Four of our experts pounced on this matchup as the one that would produce this week's best defensive performance. In a very rare twist, one expert—NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier—liked a matchup on the other side of the field in the same game: NaVorro Bowman against the Falcons offensive line.

Others receiving votes: Geno Atkins (two votes), Broncos edge-rushers, NaVorro Bowman

Over/Under: 4 Interceptions in Browns-Bengals 'TNF'

David Richard/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: UNDER—five votes

Johnny Manziel, noted turnover enthusiast, is starting at quarterback for the 2-6 Cleveland Browns against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals and their No. 7-ranked scoring defense. The Bengals defense is tied with the Jets and Patriots for the eighth-best interception rate. All the indicators are here for a big day turnover-wise.

Andy Dalton and the Bengals are red-hot and got past their biggest test yet against the Steelers in Week 8. Now they get the Browns, their in-state rival, at home on Thursday Night Football.

Is that the rub? Will Dalton's famous prime-time yips add at least one turnover to the mix? That's probably what our three experts who voted PUSH and OVER on this one are anticipating (though NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, who voted OVER, admitted he did so because "I'm a contrarian").

But if Dalton keeps it clean, it's unlikely Manziel throws more than four interceptions; our experts voted accordingly.

Others receiving votes: PUSH—two votes, OVER

Biggest Flop

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Blaine Gabbert/49ers—four votes

OK, OK: You get it.

Blaine Gabbert is not good.

The 49ers are not good.

These facts have been dominating our Week 9 expert projections, and they dominated this category too. Four of our experts named them the Flop of the Week.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier, though, went in a very interesting direction, citing Rams running back Todd Gurley in his matchup against Adrian Peterson's Minnesota Vikings:

"

I think Gurley is great. He is going to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he should be mentioned for Offensive Player of the Year, But the Vikings defense is brutal to run against, and the Rams passing game and offensive line are still weak. I see a lot of Peterson to Gurley: changing of the guard hype leading up to this game, only for Gurley to gain 45 yards on 15 carries and be out of the game plan when the Rams are playing catch-up in the fourth quarter.

"

Others receiving votes: Panthers, Todd Gurley, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck