Jets vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?
Even with Rex Ryan out of the equation, it's clear the New England Patriots and New York Jets haven't lost any love for each other. The two teams have traded barbs through the media this week, evoking memories of the trash talk that has been routine in the lead-up to virtually every Patriots-Jets game over the past six seasons.
On the field, however, the Pats will see a different rendition of their rivals. The impotent squad of the past three years has exceeded expectations in Todd Bowles' first season, racing out to a 4-1 start and establishing themselves as legitimate AFC contenders.
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Unlike another AFC East team, New York's offseason spending spree has paid off handsomely, with vets such as Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall and Antonio Cromartie spearheading this resurgence.
At Gillette Stadium, the Pats will be favorites over any squad. But if the first six weeks are any indication, New York is as stylistically difficult a matchup as any team New England will play this season, apart from perhaps the Denver Broncos. So while the Pats have largely cruised in their 5-0 start, Sunday's contest represents the toughest challenge they'll face over the first half of their schedule.
Turning to the film, read on for an X's-and-O's perspective of how the Pats can fend off their frisky rivals and maintain control of the division.
Offensive Game Plan
The headliners on New York's defense are in the secondary, which is arguably the most improved unit in the entire league from 2014. But while old friend Revis might garner the most attention and anxiety from Patriots observers, the real key to a sustainable offense on Sunday is winning in the trenches.
Unfortunately, that task is immeasurably easier said than done. In an article for ESPN.com last week, I found that the Jets had the second-best front seven in the league through the first five weeks, based on a cocktail of stats from Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Info. In particular, Gang Green's run defense has been absolutely superb:
"This year, the Jets' run defense has improved significantly; New York leads the league in adjusted line yards by a huge margin. For reference, the separation between the Jets and the second-place Broncos is almost as large as the gap between Denver and New Orleans, which ranks 27th in the category. And the Jets have done all this without arguably their best player in Sheldon Richardson, who will return Sunday after serving his four-game suspension to open the season.
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New York's Week 6 performance against Washington has done nothing to alter that—according to FO's DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric, it ranks first against the run. New York is allowing just 3.5 yards per rush this season, with Philadelphia's Ryan Mathews being the only opposing running back to break 4.0 yards per carry against the Jets so far.
The Eagles typically use a rushing system vastly different from New England's run scheme, relying on spread sets, zone blocking and the ability for backs to move laterally while using their vision to find the right cutback lane.
However, against New York, Philly diverted from that mold a bit with Mathews, lining up under center far more frequently than the Eagles typically do. Teams almost exclusively line up in nickel and dime packages against the Eagles, and Mathews was able to break some runs going downhill against a lighter box.
Granted, the Jets didn't have Sheldon Richardson that afternoon, as he was still serving his four-game suspension to open the season. But the Eagles did a solid job of keeping New York's defensive linemen from penetrating the backfield, allowing the offensive linemen to reach the second level and down block against instinctive inside linebackers David Harris and Demario Davis.
If the Pats can replicate those results with their own power-blocking scheme, that could allow New England to maintain some semblance of balance on Sunday.
Of course, the Patriots will likely lean heavily toward the pass—last season, New England had a roughly 69-to-31 percent pass-to-run ratio against the Jets, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Unlike in 2014, though, Tom Brady won't be picking on the likes of Marcus Williams and Darrin Walls.
Remember when I said the Jets ranked first in run defense DVOA? Well, they also happen to rank second against the pass. FO incorporates opponent strength adjustments into its rankings, so New York isn't necessarily being rewarded for playing a subpar schedule. It truly is a case of pick your poison against the Jets this season.
As was the case during the Ryan era, how the Patriots handle pressure will be the key to their offensive rhythm. According to ESPN's Rich Cimini, the Jets have blitzed on 47.6 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the league. New York especially loves to blitz on third downs, often showing minimal pressure pre-snap before rushing five or six players at the snap.
Thus, this game will provide the toughest mental test for young players like David Andrews, Tre' Jackson and Cameron Fleming. Bowles doesn't necessarily disguise his pressure or overload blitz as much as Ryan did, preferring to rely on a simpler pressure scheme that nevertheless forces the ball out early. It's a smart schematic foundation, given the strength of New York's big corners in press-man coverage. Enabling Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine to play downhill only accentuates an already-talented cornerback corps.
However, the Pats have the one trump card no other team possesses in Rob Gronkowski. New York has had more trouble defending tight ends than any other position this season, ranking 16th in DVOA against tight ends in pass coverage.
Brady has also had plenty of success targeting Gronk against the blitz this season, which could be New England's biggest offensive advantage in this game, especially if you consider this Brady stat line provided by Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus:
"Todd Bowles’ Ds blitz often & traditionally have struggled w/ TEs. When blitzed and targeting Gronk, Brady is 8 of 9, for 135 yards, & 5 TDs
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) October 23, 2015"
The Jets mostly held Gronk in check last season, limiting the All-Pro to 11 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown across two meetings. At the time, New York employed more zone concepts than usual, keeping a corner on Gronkowski even when he split out wide. The Jets also often used Harris as part of a bracket down the seams, relying on the speed of both the veteran linebacker and cornerback to limit Gronk on vertical routes.
New York isn't a zone-based coverage team at all in 2015, so it will be intriguing to see if Bowles sticks to the foundation that worked against Gronkowski last season. Gronkowski has been relatively quiet the past two weeks, accruing just seven catches on 10 targets, but expect him to once again become the focal point of the Pats offense, especially if New England has issues running the ball on the Jets' nickel personnel.
Defensive Game Plan
Long an underrated running back who could never quite carve out a feature role, Chris Ivory has finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2015. Despite playing just four games, Ivory ranks fourth in the league with 460 total rushing yards, and no one comes close to sniffing his average of 115 rushing yards per game.
Advanced metrics have also been impressed with Ivory, who ranks eighth in DVOA among running backs.
The Pats are familiar with the bruising back, who totaled 160 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry in two games against New England last season. Reviewing the tape from those games, it's astounding how routinely Ivory would carry multiple tacklers downfield.
Yards after contact have always been a huge part of Ivory's game. According to Pro Football Focus, only Le'Veon Bell has gained more yards after contact per rush attempt this year than Ivory at 3.19 yards per attempt.
The combination of his size and sneaky lateral agility in tight spaces makes Ivory an ideal fit for Chan Gailey's spread system, which widens defensive zones and creates bigger rushing lanes, especially when teams counter in sub-package personnel.
Therein lies the main concern for the Patriots, who must decide between committing extra beef to stopping Ivory and risking the prospect of having, say, Dont'a Hightower covering Eric Decker in the slot. Indeed, Ivory is hardly the only straw that stirs the Jets' offensive drink, with Ryan Fitzpatrick posting a strong season in Gailey's offense.
Fitzpatrick is making much quicker decisions this year, as evidenced by his career-low 1.2 percent sack rate, best in the league thus far. The veteran quarterback has funneled most of his targets toward lead-footed but towering wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Decker. Despite the lack of speed in New York's receiving corps, Gailey's system clears out space for Marshall and Decker and enables them to win using their size.
It's not a coincidence New York's worst offensive showing came in the aforementioned Eagles game, which Decker missed with a PCL sprain. The Jets have averaged at least seven yards per pass in their other four games this season, with Marshall and Decker combining for 55 percent of the targets, 72 percent of the receiving yards and all seven receiving touchdowns in those contests.
So whenever the Jets do turn to the air, it's no mystery where they'll be going.
However, while the Pats can't water their cornerbacks to grow a few inches taller, New England can likely contain New York's passing game by eliminating the short-to-intermediate middle of the field and forcing Fitzpatrick to take deeper shots. Despite his reputation as a high-risk, high-reward passer, Fitzpatrick has actually had a difficult time with his deep-ball accuracy, even when receivers are fairly open.
Granted, the Jets don't have ideal vertical passing personnel, especially with second-round rookie Devin Smith struggling mightily in his debut. However, when we look at Fitzpatrick's accuracy stats, which are under his control, the picture isn't pretty.
It's odd to think that Fitzpatrick has been just as mistake-prone as he's been throughout his career, but the 32-year-old has thrown an interception in every single game this season. In fact, he's actually been largely his erratic self in terms of both interception percentage and deep-ball accuracy.
Consequently, I'd expect New England to play heavy doses of its three-safety dime personnel, with Jordan Richards and Duron Harmon seeing an uptick in snaps over third cornerback Justin Coleman. It's easy to envision the Pats using Malcolm Butler on Marshall with safety help over the top from Harmon, while Devin McCourty adopts a slot corner role for the week against Decker, who has turned into Gailey's primary slot receiver this season.
Ultimately, the matchup between the Jets offense and Patriots defense could boil down to the ability of New England's defensive backs to tackle Ivory, which would force the ball into Fitzpatrick's hands against sub-package personnel.
With Hightower still recovering from his rib injury and Jerod Mayo diminished this season, the Pats might consider a lighter 4-2-5 formation on passing downs, with Patrick Chung serving as the second de facto linebacker and Jamie Collins acting as the defensive fulcrum in the middle.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Dion Lewis
The Patriots will likely spread the Jets and turn to the quick passing game to mitigate the pass rush. Thus, expect Dion Lewis to play the vast majority of the snaps on Sunday and perhaps even lead the team in targets, as he did when New England adopted a similar game plan against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.
Lewis was quiet against Indianapolis last week, totaling a season-low 39 yards from scrimmage. However, the Jets have had their share of issues covering running backs, with Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews in particular having success. Look for the Pats to keep Lewis involved early and often with a steady dose of screens and angle routes out of the backfield.
Malcolm Butler
As alluded to earlier, Butler will likely draw the Brandon Marshall assignment on Sunday. Though Butler has given up his share of scores and big plays, he's largely held his own in a vastly expanded role, serving as New England's best man-coverage corner and often shadowing other top wide receivers.
The long-armed Butler will need to jam Marshall and use his ball skills to locate outside the numbers, where the savvy, sure-handed vet thrives. Marshall has also received eight of New York's 22 red-zone targets this season, so watch for how Butler performs in the scoring area after he gave up a touchdown on a fade route last week to Donte Moncrief.
Ryan Wendell
The senior statesman of New England's interior offensive line should finally make his season debut after undergoing heavy conditioning following an illness that cost him the year's first five games. With Shaq Mason possibly down this week, Ryan Wendell's return comes at a timely moment for New England, which will need all hands on deck against the Jets' defensive line.
Wendell started at right guard last season and practiced at left guard in the preseason, but it will be interesting to see where he lines up on Sunday. Josh Kline and Tre' Jackson have been rotational guards on the left and right side, respectively, so perhaps Wendell serves as the utility man who gives Kline and Jackson breathers at both spots.
Dominique Easley
With Jabaal Sheard out this week, the Patriots need their supplemental pass-rushers to come through on Sunday. Though Fitzpatrick has largely mitigated sacks this season, he hasn't traditionally been a level-headed decision-maker. If the Pats can force him to hold the ball, it's not out of the question that pressure could still play an integral role.
Dominique Easley played arguably the best game of his young career last week, notching eight quarterback pressures over just 27 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. The second-year defensive tackle has exclusively stuck to the 3-technique this season, but he has experience playing on the edge. With Sheard out, perhaps Easley sees an uptick in snaps rotating in for Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich outside.
Prediction
In the summer, Week 7 seemed to mark the start of a breezy three-game homestand that would propel the Patriots into the second half of their season. Now, a dinged-up New England squad is facing its best opponent of the season, with the stark possibility of falling into second place by Sunday night.
The bigger concern could come on Thursday, when the Pats play another AFC East opponent, the Miami Dolphins. The Jets are a smashmouth team that will likely extract every ounce of juice New England has to give. For a team with its fair share of injuries, playing two games in five days is hardly ideal.
Of course, the Pats could also have a midseason stranglehold on the division at this time next week, which should provide plenty of incentive to push through this stretch. New England has always struggled to blow out the Jets, even with Gang Green staggering through the final years of the Ryan era, but it has still managed to come out on top in seven of the past eight meetings.
Until New York actually slays the dragon, the Pats deserve the benefit of the doubt, especially at Gillette Stadium. New England may not dictate the action as much as it has over its first five wins, but expect the Patriots to squeeze out enough offense and force enough Fitzpatrick mistakes to stay unbeaten.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 21
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