Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the San Francisco 49ers in 2015

Are the San Francisco 49ers going to be that bad in 2015?

Or will the 49ers wind up surprising many and be much better than the pundits might think?

These questions, and more, are at the forefront of San Francisco's preparations leading into the upcoming NFL season. With training camp just around the corner, head coach Jim Tomsula's squad is readying itself to answer whether or not it will be a force with which to be reckoned.

On one hand, many experts—like those of a January Yahoo SportsTalk Live panel (h/t CSN Bay Area)—predict the 49ers to finish last within the NFC West.

Yet others, such as new 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith, have a more positive outlook.

Smith told Bleacher Report that outsiders have "no clue" about what the 49ers are doing to get back on track.

"

"Smith: Outsiders Have No Clue on 49ers" via @TeamStream http://t.co/smkjMM1U5y

— Kevin Molina (@KevinMolina85) July 13, 2015"

The reality probably resides somewhere in between. San Francisco could easily be better than what many are expecting. But the 49ers may also fall well short of the lofty hopes that many fans have as the new season approaches.

But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for this team?

Let's try to provide the answers. 

2015 Rookie Class

The 49ers picked up 10 players via the 2015 NFL draft with hopes that at least a few of them will eventually emerge as bona fide forces for the foreseeable future.

The 10 selections are as follows:

1. DE Arik Armstead
2. S Jaquiski Tartt
3. OLB Eli Harold
4. TE Blake Bell
5. RB Mike Davis
6. WR DeAndre Smelter
7. P Bradley Pinion
8. OG Ian Silberman
9. OL Trenton Brown
10. TE Rory "Busta" Anderson

San Francisco's first three selections should warrant the most attention aside from offensive lineman Trenton Brown—who could be a dark-horse candidate to start at right tackle—and punter Bradley Pinion, who will take over the punting duties after the trade of veteran punter Andy Lee.

Defensive end Arik Armstead, safety Jaquiski Tartt and linebacker Eli Harold join positions that already have a lot of depth. The 49ers won't need to ask much of them right away. 

But they will expect an eventual return on their investment.

Armstead could wind up drawing the most praise or criticism depending on how one views his situation. Granted, he's a physical force. But his pedestrian collegiate numbers suggest that something is missing.

Few of the 49ers rookies will be expected to provide a major impact in their respective rookie years. That's a bonus. 

But the majority of them will, at least, be asked to show enough promise to warrant confidence down the road.

Best-Case Scenario

Armstead demonstrates improvement while being placed into specific situations in year one. His efforts relieve the 49ers' concerns for long-term depth at defensive end. Tartt and Harold make impacts as situational defensive forces and reserves over the course of the year.

Worst-Case Scenario 

Armstead struggles in training camp and throughout the preseason, which results in him being inactive for most of the year. Tartt's small-school pedigree comes back to haunt him as he struggles with an NFL role. Harold winds up becoming a player like linebacker Corey Lemonier who never fully reaches his pass-rushing potential.

Reality

Armstead may take a year or two to fully develop into something useful. The 49ers will be required to plug the gap with established veterans until the rookie is ready for a full-time role. Tartt is eventually worked into a starting job in 2016 or 2017, while Harold serves as a situational pass-rusher and backup option behind standouts like linebackers Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch.

The Injury Front

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Linebacker NaVorro Bowman's knee injury could hamper his efforts in the early phases of training camp and beyond.

San Francisco hopes to enter the 2015 season with an injury-free slate. 

Of course, this is far from the reality of any NFL team. Injuries are just as much a part of the game as total yards, scores and touchdowns.

The 49ers suffered enough injuries a year ago. Standout players like linebacker NaVorro Bowman, cornerback Tramaine Brock, right tackle Anthony Davis, center Daniel Kilgore and defensive linemen Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams all missed substantial time last season.

All these players should be healthy by Week 1. 

The obvious worst-case scenario for injuries would be an entire unit being ravaged by the injury bug. A key player, like quarterback Colin Kaepernick, going down would also be detrimental.

For now, all we can do is speculate about the healthy returns of players like Bowman.

"The knee will get to where it needs to be," Bowman stated on the team's website. "Maybe not as fast as you guys expect, but I’m definitely going to get back to that level."

"

LB @NBowman53 updates knee rehab at #49ers OTAs. Hint: It's good news. http://t.co/79Hwra0gAY pic.twitter.com/nCs77yKawP

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) May 30, 2015"

A healthy Bowman mitigates the effects of the retirements of linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to an extent. And having players like Dorsey and Williams returning with a clean bill of health adds substantial depth to the defensive line.

But injuries are almost unpredictable, which is simply the nature of the NFL.

Best-Case Scenario

San Francisco enjoys good fortune on the injury front and loses only a handful of role players throughout the course of the season. Bowman returns to All-Pro form and makes a claim for Comeback Player of the Year.

Worst-Case Scenario

An entire unit—such as the offensive line—is decimated by injury, which tests the 49ers' depth beyond capacity. Players like Bowman are still hindered by lingering injuries and/or suffer further setbacks on the field.

Reality

The 49ers' depth will be tested at various positions, which was the case at cornerback and along the O-line last year. Backups will need to showcase their ability to step up when called upon.

The Offensive Line

The 49ers offensive line endured plenty of setbacks last season, which included injuries to center Daniel Kilgore and right tackle Anthony Davis.

Such setbacks were primary reasons why the O-line gave up 52 sacks over the course of the year.

Davis and left guard Mike Iupati are gone now, and the 49ers are scrambling to find continuity along the line. 

Right now, the only surefire bet is that veteran lineman Joe Staley will start at left tackle. The rest is yet to be determined. Right guard Alex Boone could shift over to the left side of the line—a suggestion made by offensive coordinator Geep Chryst via the team's website—and strengthen that portion of the 49ers' offensive attack.

That leaves the center position and the right side of the O-line up in the air, though.

A healthy Daniel Kilgore could alleviate San Francisco's concerns at center. He was arguably the most consistent lineman last year prior to being injured against the Denver Broncos in Week 7. But Kilgore admitted to Eric Branch of SFGate.com that the recovery process has been slow in preparation for 2015.

"

#49ers C Daniel Kilgore (ankle) on if he’ll be full speed by training camp: “I’m not going to promise anything.”

— Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) June 6, 2015"

And what of the right side? Could rookie right tackle Trenton Brown emerge as the favorite to take over in Davis' wake? Or will it be the veteran Erik Pears?

Is second-year pro Brandon Thomas ready to handle the job at right guard after being redshirted his rookie season?

These are burning questions that will have to be answered by the start of the regular season. And given the importance of the O-line, falling short of desired expectations could have disastrous results.

Best-Case Scenario

San Francisco's O-line jells enough to make a substantial improvement over last season. Led by veterans Staley and Boone, the line remains continuous throughout the majority of the year without substantial setback or injury. Young players like Thomas and Brown solidify their roles by demonstrating excellent pass- and run-blocking abilities.

Worst-Case Scenario

The left side of the line holds its own with Staley and Boone performing well. But the right side remains an unsolved liability. Neither Brown nor Pears performs well at right tackle, and Thomas struggles after his first campaign at the NFL level. Kilgore's injury hampers his efforts, and the 49ers are forced to employ an overwhelming combination of linemen over the course of 2015.

And injuries can always destroy an O-line.

Reality

Thomas looks the part of a developing lineman but flashes enough promise to remain a starter. Pears starts the season at tackle but has strong competition from Brown. The rookie earns consideration for a starting spot, especially if injuries start to take their toll.

The Secondary

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Cornerback Tramaine Brock should return to action after missing the majority of 2015. But who plays alongside him?

Who plays the critical No. 2 cornerback position in 2015?

At least the 49ers have their No. 1 spot all but figured out after getting cornerback Tramaine Brock healthy. Brock missed all but three games last year.

But the 49ers lost defensive backs Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox to free agency. They also lost secondary coach Ed Donatell during the offseason-coaching tumult as well. This was the biggest blow, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee: "The biggest offseason loss may have been secondary coach Ed Donatell, whose coverages worked brilliantly in San Francisco’s overall scheme and produced 78 interceptions over the past four regular seasons."

Figuring out the No. 2 corner position will be one of the pressing questions during training camp. The job could go to established veterans like Chris Cook or Shareece Wright. But neither has truly excelled at the NFL level, and Wright was one of the worst cornerbacks in the league over the past two seasons, according to Jeff Deeney of Pro Football Focus:

"

Shareece Wright ranked in the bottom 10 among CBs in both years as a starter in SD. -16.4 coverage grade in 2014, -11.1 in 2013. #49ers

— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) March 13, 2015"

On a positive note, the 49ers do have some developing talent that could wind up taking over alongside Brock.

Second-year pro Dontae Johnson flashed some promise over 16 games—three of which were as a starter—at cornerback. And cornerback Keith Reaser has done plenty of work to warrant consideration this offseason, according to B/R's Grant Cohn.

There is also the hope that second-year pro defensive back Jimmie Ward improves upon his less-than-stellar rookie efforts. He had a minus-6.4 grade last season, per Pro Football Focus (h/t 49ers Stats).

Best-Case Scenario

The 49ers get stellar play out of their cornerbacks, with Brock returning to solid form. He's complemented by either Reaser or Johnson at the No. 2 spot. Cook and Wright supply worthwhile depth-chart options for this unit, and Ward continues his maturation process. The 49ers back up their 23-interception season with another strong effort in 2015.

Worst-Case Scenario

Brock can't bounce back after the various injuries suffered last year, and the 49ers scramble to find a worthwhile starting combination at the position. Johnson starts off the season strong enough but falls off during the second half like he did last year. Wright is forced into a starting role and continues to be a liability like he was with the San Diego Chargers.

Reality

The No. 2 corner position goes to whoever wins the job in camp. If a veteran like Cook or Wright wins out, that player will likely be surpassed by someone like Johnson or Reaser at some point this season. The young cornerbacks will have their mistakes, but the learning process continues to reveal signs of improvement.

Tight End Vernon Davis

Remember when tight end Vernon Davis was considered one of the league's elite?

We are only two seasons removed from when Davis was named to the Pro Bowl after an 850-yard, 13-touchdown season. But the 31-year-old veteran had a disastrous 2014 campaign. He had just 26 receptions for 245 yards and two touchdowns last year—the lowest numbers since his 2006 rookie season.

Davis attributed the lowly numbers to poor game planning, per Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee (h/t Fox Sports):

"

Whenever I'd run, like, my deep over routes there was a safety sitting over there already. It was just game planning. And nothing really ever opened up. But I wasn't really ever a factor in the offense last year. ... The first game, yeah. But the second game, the tight ends (weren't) really involved as a whole.

"

"

Vernon Davis blames 'game planning' for lackluster 2014 season - http://t.co/pb6g3cR8Z6 pic.twitter.com/3XClXEQRXZ

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) June 16, 2015"

This could have been the case. Or it could be the fact that Davis is no longer the youthful matchup nightmare who earned accolades earlier in his career.

At any rate, the 49ers will need him to return to form in 2015. And he should benefit from the offseason additions of wide receivers Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson. Both these targets have substantial down-the-field speed, which means Davis won't have to be the lone deep threat on offense anymore.

Davis can now be tasked with running more traditional tight end routes—an aspect that should play to his favor given his age and incumbent skill set.

And the fact that he is entering a contract year should also provide plenty of motivation.

Best-Case Scenario

Davis bounces back to Pro Bowl form and re-establishes himself as one of the league's elite. He's benefited by the deep-threat potential of Smith, which allows Davis to make plays in the intermediate receiving areas of the field. Motivated by the desire to land a new deal, he crests 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Worst-Case Scenario

2014 was not just an anomaly in Davis' career—it was a sign of things to come. Age and injuries catch up to Davis, and the veteran tight end disappears from the 49ers offense much like he did over the course of last season.

Reality

Davis should improve upon his lowly 2014 numbers. San Francisco's passing attack seems more well-rounded this year. He won't come close to cresting 1,000 receiving yards, but he may come close to his 605-yards-per-season average.

The Offense

San Francisco's defense will likely not be the primary concern in 2015 despite all the offseason shake-ups and departures.

After all, Jim Tomsula is a defensive-minded head coach who molded one of the best defensive lines in the league prior to his promotion. And defensive coordinator Eric Mangini has his own accolades on that side of the ball.

The real question will be with offensive coordinator Geep Chryst's offense. Despite a strong running effort in 2014, the 49ers finished with the 25th-ranked scoring offense (306 points) under then-offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The passing game posted a mere 3,063 yards, which was No. 30 in the NFL last year. Fifty-two sacks allowed were tied for third most.

San Francisco's ground attack should be just fine with second-year back Carlos Hyde taking over the featured role. A supporting cast of running backs Kendall Hunter and Reggie Bush should also add some different looks here.

But what of the offense in general?

According to new 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith, the situation on offense will be much better than what most outsiders believe will happen. He makes this claim in the B/R video above.

Smith adds speed to this unit—an element the 49ers have lacked in recent seasons.

"

Number of receptions on targets of 20+ yards including postseason (2011-2014): All #49ers WR combined - 53 Torrey Smith - 51

— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) March 9, 2015"

With Smith, and perhaps fellow wideout Jerome Simpson, threatening on deep routes, San Francisco's other receiving targets like tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Anquan Boldin should have more opportunities to make plays underneath. 

At least that's the theory.

And what about the red zone? The 49ers ranked last in the NFL in red-zone efficiency toward the end of last season, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News. The team had just eight red-zone touchdowns despite running 109 plays within opponents' 20-yard lines last year.

Chryst was in charge of the red-zone offense in 2014. And now he's calling all the shots as offensive coordinator.

"

And now Chryst, who was in charge of the #49ers' worst area offensively -- the red zone -- is in charge of the whole offense.

— Dylan DeSimone (@DeSimone_80) February 2, 2015"

Should this be considered a major problem, or were last season's statistics merely a sign of bad context?

The offensive line might be worrisome, but the 49ers have more playmaking talent at their impact positions this year. That is a bonus. But proper coaching influences every aspect of execution, and the 49ers could be hard-pressed to improve upon their lowly standings from a year ago.

Best-Case Scenario

The 49ers offense clicks with deep threats like Smith and Simpson stretching the field. A strong running game ensures opposing defenses will stay honest, which opens up opportunities for quarterback Colin Kaepernick to engage in more play-action and read-option approaches.

The red-zone offense might not be dynamic and overly efficient, but it emerges much stronger than what was seen last year. San Francisco no longer has to rely on its defense to win ballgames. 

Worst-Case Scenario

Chryst fails to improve the 49ers' offensive woes in his first season as OC, and the offense struggles to jell as a unit. Despite the presence of players like Smith, the passing game never reaches its potential, and teams lock in against the running game knowing that it is the lone consistent threat San Francisco has on that side of the ball.

Reality

San Francisco doesn't become a high-flying offense. But the addition of true deep threats allow for the 49ers to make some notable gains in the aerial attack. Smith and Boldin make up a solid, if not dynamic, one-two punch at wide receiver. And targets like Davis and Simpson add noteworthy elements to the receiving game. 

The 49ers continue to be a run-first offense with Hyde at the focal point. But the presence of Smith will force defenses to respect the passing game.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick

We have already talked about San Francisco's offensive line. But will this unit's woes affect quarterback Colin Kaepernick to the point of ultimate failure?

That question is discussed in the above B/R video.

At any rate, Kaepernick will need to prove that he is far better than the mediocrity and regressive tendencies that befell San Francisco's signal-caller last season.

Kaepernick had an 86.4 passer rating in 2014—down from 98.3 in 2012 and 91.6 in 2013. His 10 interceptions last year also marked a career high.

There were plenty of excuses for Kaepernick last season. The O-line was permeable and inconsistent. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman's play-calling was poor. San Francisco lacked a dynamic receiving corps.

In 2015, Kaepernick will have a new-look O-line. Geep Chryst has moved from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. Wide receivers Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson add speed to the receiving game.

And Kaepernick spent a portion of the offseason working with former-NFL great Kurt Warner and quarterbacking guru Dennis Gile.

Will this be enough to turn the page on a forgetful season?

The 49ers sure hope so. Kaepernick is on the hot seat, per Fox Sports NFL writer Alex Marvez:

"

Two seasons removed from almost leading San Francisco to victory in Super Bowl 47, Kaepernick saw his star lose some of its luster in 2014 as he failed to show much progress as a pocket passer. With all the offseason changes in San Francisco, ranging from head coach to personnel, Kaepernick must carry more of the offensive load than in any of his previous 2.5 seasons as a starter.

"

"

ICYMI: Peyton Manning, @Kaepernick7 & @andydalton14 are on my @NFLonFOX list of 11 hot-seat QBs entering 2015 season http://t.co/pOhD5QOicC

— Alex Marvez (@alexmarvez) July 23, 2015"

Which Kaepernick will fans see in 2015? Will it be the quarterback who regressed last season and displayed poor decision-making and progression-reading tendencies over the course of the year?

Or will he rediscover the abilities that made him noteworthy in the first place?

According to head coach Jim Tomsula via Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee), Kaepernick will be asked to run the ball more and utilize play-action and read-option schemes, which made him so potent earlier in his career.

Will this approach be enough to turn Kaepernick's career around?

Best-Case Scenario

Kaepernick returns to the form seen by the NFL in 2012. A strong running game sets up the play action in which he thrived. The quarterback will be asked to improve upon his weaknesses but not at the expense of giving up his strengths.

An added bonus will come from the additions of Smith, Simpson and running back Reggie Bush, who will act as a safety valve of sorts coming out of the backfield.

With these weapons and a return-to-form approach, Kaepernick turns the page on a dark portion of his still-budding career.

Worst-Case Scenario

Regardless of the O-line's ability to protect him, Kaepernick is unable to progress beyond reasonable expectations. His numbers don't necessarily get any worse than they were a year ago, but the lack of any consistency and maturation is a major cause of concern.

And the 49ers offense struggles as a result.

The failed development forces San Francisco's front office to question whether or not Kaepernick is the guy moving forward. Thankfully, his contract has plenty of "outs" worded into the language.

Reality

Kaepernick will improve upon the regressed numbers seen in 2014. He'll benefit from the ability to harness his natural abilities, which will open up his strengths to an extent not seen as much last year.

But he will still make the mistakes seen all too often last season and beforehand. The progressions and decision-making will still be questionable at best.

NFC West Divisional Standing

The 49ers aren't going to be standing atop the NFC West at the conclusion of 2015.

Or will they?

Fansided.com's Brandon Keller (h/t Golden Gate Sports) seems to think so:

"

With Jim Tomsula leading the way this season, it seems like there will be nothing but good vibes throughout the Niners’ organization. The Seahawks may seem promising, but their time on the top is coming to an end.

"

"

.@brandonkellerFA has a bold prediction for the #49ers next season: they'll win the NFC West http://t.co/GbYaWg97FR pic.twitter.com/N4BuF3dJxz

— Golden Gate Sports (@goldenbaysports) July 20, 2015"

This may be a lofty prediction. The Seattle Seahawks' reign over the division seems unfazed especially after adding phenom tight end Jimmy Graham this offseason. And the Arizona Cardinals will likely remain a playoff contender so long as quarterback Carson Palmer stays healthy.

As such, sings point to the St. Louis Rams as being the only team with which the 49ers can compete in order to avoid the divisional cellar.

And it doesn't look too promising, according to Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle (h/t CSN Bay Area).

"I think they'll finish fifth in the division," Ostler stated. "I'm not encouraged. When you look at the picture, it's a scary thing."

Fifth out of a four-team division. Yikes.

Could the 49ers wind up shocking the NFL world as the above B/R video suggests? Of course they could. Anything is possible.

The problem is that San Francisco has far more questions entering this season than before. How will the new coaching staff under Jim Tomsula jell? While the 49ers' depth should be enough to supplant the losses of stalwart players, will their contributions be enough to ensure San Francisco returns to an elite status?

And will linchpins like quarterback Colin Kaepernick, running back Carlos Hyde and defensive end Tank Carradine do enough to carry this team on their shoulders?

It's hard to have confidence in a first-place finish. But we can always hope for the unexpected to happen.

Best-Case Scenario

The 49ers do prove the doubters wrong and finish atop the division. Seattle has a fall from grace, and the Cardinals can't match what they have been able to do in recent seasons. 

Perhaps wide receiver Torrey Smith was right all along.

Worst-Case Scenario

San Francisco falls victim to the offseason speculation and winds up being a last-place team. Seattle and Arizona battle it out for first and second place within the NFC West, while the Rams do enough to secure the No. 3 spot.

The 49ers bring up the rear.

Reality

Optimists may hope otherwise, but the 49ers are in a transition period. And transition periods take time. San Francisco can't keep up with Arizona or Seattle. But it is better than St. Louis.

The 49ers finish third in the NFC West.

Season Outlook

So how will the 49ers fare in 2015?

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee predicted back in June that San Francisco would finish the year with an eight-win season.

"

Matt Barrows: 49ers appear to be 8-8 team again http://t.co/0JavOhlJeP

— The Sacramento Bee (@sacbee_news) June 20, 2015"

That prediction sounds better than a team destined for the cellar of the division and within the NFC. But it also falls well short of anything 49ers fans have come to expect over the previous four seasons.

It would be nice to suggest that San Francisco goes 10-6 or 12-4. And it seems asinine, given the 49ers' incumbent talent, to predict a four-win season.

But it's hard to ignore the fact that San Francisco competes within the NFC West. The 49ers having the third-most difficult schedule, according to CBS Sports' Jon Breech, is also tough to swallow.

San Francisco isn't as bad as, let's say, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons or Cleveland Browns. But the 49ers have certainly lost that aura of eliteness that put them in the same category as the Seattle Seahawks or Green Bay Packers.

The 49ers could, feasibly, finish with a 10-6 or an 11-5 record.

This could happen if quarterback Colin Kaepernick returns to 2012 form. This could happen if running back Carlos Hyde picks up where Frank Gore left off. This could happen if the new coaching staff pulls off all the right moves. This could happen if the defense is in perfect position to return to a top-five tier. This could happen if the rest of the NFC West falters.

There are far too many ifs in that assessment. 

As stated previously, San Francisco is in a transition period. Transitions don't always go smoothly. There are likely going to be proverbial bumps in the road for this franchise. But that doesn't mean all hope is lost.

A .500 finish is not a bad expectation at this point. An 8-8 record, as Barrows suggested, wouldn't be a disaster if many of the core players and coaches show poise, promise and potential over the course of the season.

If players like Kaepernick, Hyde, Carradine, Arik Armstead, Keith Reaser, Brandon Thomas and any other linchpin pieces showcase their best abilities, fans should have plenty of confidence moving forward.

That's an easier "if" to accept.

Best-Case Scenario

San Francisco wins some tough games on its difficult schedule and comes away with a 10-6 record. Maybe even better. Being an under-the-radar team benefits the franchise, and the 49ers wind up sneaking into the postseason as a wild-card team.

Worst-Case Scenario

The 49ers fail to find their rhythm over the course of the season. Their efforts remind fans of the Mike Nolan era when the team finished with a 4-12 record in 2005.

But that team had far less talent on the field.

Reality

An 8-8 record sounds about right. As frustrating as it may be to see the 49ers fall short of a winning record, strong efforts from core players—and a progressively thinking coaching staff—could be enough to give hope that the 49ers are a year or two away from returning to greatness.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.

Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.