B/R Experts' NBA 2015 Free-Agency Preview
NBA shopping season is here.
To guide everyone through the late-night offers, maximum deals and franchise-shifting transactions, B/R's NBA senior writers Howard Beck, Ric Bucher, Kevin Ding, Ethan Skolnick and Jared Zwerling predict how some of the most intriguing decisions to come will play out, starting July 1.
1. What Team Has the Most at Stake This Summer?
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The Knicks. For a team that's nosedived in recent years, deals with a fair share of criticism, has the basketball mind of Phil Jackson running the show, involves Carmelo Anthony reportedly recruiting top free agents, offers plenty of cap space and is in the No. 1 media market, I would say it's the blue and orange, hands down.
— Jared Zwerling
2. Should Lakers Go All-In Now or Continue Preparing for Post-Kobe Era?
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It's not necessarily one or the other, because the Lakers want the highest-end talent they can get right now, bottom line. It's why they chased Carmelo Anthony a year ago and will do the same with LaMarcus Aldridge now despite him turning 30 this summer. But they aren't going to win it all if they trade all their assets for DeMarcus Cousins to play with Bryant next season.
The Lakers haven't enjoyed sitting out the NBA playoffs the past two seasons, but the organizational philosophy is to build a champion. To that end, they put no priority on rushing back to mere respectability, no matter how heartwarming it would be for NBA fans to see Bryant in the playoffs one more time with the help of veteran players.
The Lakers will undoubtedly be much better after free agency because they're determined to use their cap space instead of carrying it over to 2016. But their goal—which is the correct one—is to invest in players who will be part of a championship crew.
— Kevin Ding
3. What's the Worst-Case Scenario for LeBron James This Offseason?
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That's hard to envision when you have total control of an organization, as James does now.
You could say that it would be losing Tristan Thompson in free agency, but that won't happen, not with James pressuring Dan Gilbert to commit something near a maximum deal. You could say it would be Kevin Love leaving, but—recent pool party aside—the sense here is that their connection will always be uneasy anyway.
So it's simply about what other teams do, and whether the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder get stronger and make it more difficult for James to leap that last hurdle after likely getting to the Finals again.
— Ethan Skolnick
4. Who Is the Perfect Free Agent for Phil Jackson's Knicks?
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It's a tough question, because the talent-starved Knicks have so many gaps in their lineup. A lot of guys would fit.
But the perfect free agent? Marc Gasol, without a doubt. He would provide the rim protection the Knicks desperately need, along with a versatile offensive skill set. He can score inside and from the perimeter. He's a gifted passer, with great court sense and a high basketball IQ. He's selfless. And he's a vocal leader—another quality the Knicks need badly. He would thrive in the triangle offense—just as his brother Pau did under Jackson with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Unfortunately for the Knicks, I can't see Gasol leaving a perennial playoff team in Memphis for a rebuilding project in New York. If he's going to change teams this summer, it would be to join a title contender, like San Antonio.
For that matter, I don't think any of the top-tier free agents (Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan) will choose the Knicks when there are more attractive options available. The Knicks' best approach is to sign as many high-level role players as possible, to make themselves more competitive and attractive next year, when Kevin Durant will lead an even stronger free-agent class.
— Howard Beck
5. Who Has the Best Shot at Landing LaMarcus Aldridge?
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It remains the Portland Trail Blazers, who can offer him $30 million more than any other suitor. As tempting as joining Dallas, San Antonio or the Lakers might seem, they all have issues that are as great or greater than those he has with the Blazers.
Are the Mavs any more primed to compete for a title? If star treatment is what he seeks, that's not San Antonio's style, and he'll have to wait in line. The Lakers? California tax will take a bite out of an already smaller payday, and he'll be fighting another personable point guard (D'Angelo Russell) for attention on a rebuilding team.
— Ric Bucher
6. Who Poses the Greatest Threat to the Cavs Keeping Kevin Love?
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The Lakers are the biggest threat, but hardly the only threat. The Blazers and Celtics are both attractive to Love, and the Rockets could also make a play for him.
It's no secret that Love has been unhappy in Cleveland, so he will absolutely be considering other options. L.A. tops the list. His girlfriend is from there. He lives there in the offseason. And he played there collegiately, at UCLA. It's where he's most comfortable.
The Lakers have a ton of cap room, a dazzling new point guard (No. 2 pick D'Angelo Russell) and a glaring need for another star, with Kobe Bryant nearing retirement. Portland is close to Love's childhood home (Lake Oswego, Oregon), and the Blazers will have room if LaMarcus Aldridge bolts, as expected. Boston has tons of cap room and some decent young players. Houston has no cap room, but the Rockets are always creative and absolutely interested. They might be able to land him in a sign-and-trade.
— Howard Beck
7. Who Will Be the Biggest Name Involved in a Trade This Summer?
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While DeAndre Jordan to the Mavericks for Tyson Chandler could heat up, I think the star center will stay put in Los Angeles to continue his run with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.
That's a solid, still-young-enough core. So I'm going to go with Joe Johnson to the Grizzlies, who have needed a go-to perimeter scorer. If Johnson can regain his knee support—he struggled a bit with knee tendinitis last season—he's still got a few more effective 15-plus-point-per-game years in him. And he's a strong defender to complement the Grindhouse mentality.
— Jared Zwerling
8. What Are the Fears in Giving Draymond Green a Max Contract?
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If the team giving the max contract is the Warriors, the fears are minimal. If it's another team, well, that's different.
There's much to love about Green: He's a phenomenal defender, an excellent passer and a very good three-point shooter. He was as critical to the Warriors' success this season as anyone. To Golden State, he's practically indispensable, and worth a max deal: $15.7 million next season, and $90.3 million over five years.
But is he just as valuable to another team? That's not entirely clear. Yes, any team could use a player with Green's talents, especially his defensive versatility. But he needs bigger offensive stars around him to maximize his skill set. He's an incredible third or fourth piece, not a primary building block. He's not going to get a team 25 points a night.
A rebuilding team, such as New York or Boston, just can't afford to give Green a max deal, even though the salary cap is spiking by 30 percent in 2016. But the Warriors, who have Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson anchoring the offense, will have no hesitation paying Green the big bucks to anchor the defense.
— Howard Beck
9. What Free Agent Will Be the Most Overpaid This Summer?
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J.R. Smith, who declined his $6.4 million player option for next season, was writing an underdog story for himself until he—predictably—turned into a suspension-drawing, shot-missing pumpkin when the Cavaliers needed him most.
He is who he is, skilled and potent but undependable. If his brief period of focus playing a solid role next to LeBron James sells some club that Smith, 29, can be a foundational piece, that general manager is a sucker. Even the Cavs, who at least have some reason to believe James can keep Smith at his best, aren't sure Smith is worth the trust or the dollars.
— Kevin Ding
10. Who Will Be the Biggest Bargain in Free Agency?
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It will be Tim Duncan, because it's always Tim Duncan, but the Spurs will undoubtedly get the benefit of that bargain again, making that boring to most.
So if you're looking for someone who will change teams, the way Rodney Stuckey did last season, giving Indiana great minutes for the minimum, it could be center Kosta Koufos, who has been a solid backup to Marc Gasol and could leave for a bigger role elsewhere.
Another option? Mike Dunleavy, if he comes in at something close to last season's cost of $3 million.
— Ethan Skolnick
11. What Team Will Leave NBA Fans Puzzled This Offseason?
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Unless the Kings flip DeMarcus Cousins for D'Angelo Russell and whatever else they can pry from the Lakers, they've already locked this up.
They exposed a rift between their best player and head coach; drafted a big man with a quirky personality and without both an offensive game and, supposedly, a strong work ethic; and turned over their front office to an administrative neophyte (Vlade Divac).
If, however, they can somehow flip Cousins for a potential star in the making, they step aside for the perpetually mystifying Sixers.
— Ric Bucher
