5 Realistic Targets for Houston Rockets to Chase in 2015 NBA Free Agency

The Houston Rockets will view free agency differently this year than in the past few summers. That’s because they don’t have the same type of cap room they previously had. They can, however, realistically find help vital to getting another banner.

In theory, they could create a bit of spending money by declining all their options. They are obligated to pay $60.7 million, per Spotrac.com. If they traded their first-round pick for future picks and/or assets and waived all their rights to Patrick Beverley, Jason Terry, Josh Smith, K.J. McDaniels and Corey Brewer, they would free up all their cap holds.  

Additionally, they could waive Kostas Papanikolaou and Pablo Prigioni (who has a partially guaranteed contract) to open up $5.7 million.

Work out the math there, and it cuts the salaries down to $55 million.

If they did all that, however, they would only have nine players under contract. According to Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ, that would mean adding three cap holds for an “incomplete roster charge” of $525,093 each. That would bring the Rockets’ salaries and holds to $57.1 million.

The projected cap is $67.1 million, per Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com, so that would mean $10 million is the most money the Rockets could generate in cap space. But it would essentially cost them their depth and draft pick. And it’s not like a team can get a max contract for that much.

Ergo, the Rockets aren’t going that route. It’s just too much for too little.

The math is much easier if they stay over the cap. They can get a player for the mid-level exception of $5.464 million or less. I do not expect the players on this list to get more than that. 

The Rockets are looking for one thing and one thing only: a scoring point guard who can both catch and shoot while creating for himself and others off the dribble. Therefore, with one exception, all the players on this list fit that description.

They are listed here in order of priority based on how much I feel they would help the Rockets.

5. Beno Udrih

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Beno Udrih experienced a career highlight when Mike Conley was hurt in Game 1 of the Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round series with the Portland Trail Blazers. It was only the second time since the 2010-11 season that Udrih had a game score (a single-number metric devised by John Hollinger) over 20.

That can be taken one of two ways. One, it might mean the 32-year-old point guard still has something in the tank. Or it might mean that he was able to tap into the well and produce for a single night.

The latter is more likely true than the former. That said, the Rockets aren’t looking for a superstar. They’re looking for competence. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Udrih averaged 14.6 points and 5.3 assists per 36 minutes last year. He’s a career 34.9 percent three-point shooter.

He’s not going to be an All-Star, but he could be a starter. And the other advantage is he could do so for less than the full MLE. Splitting the exception would give the Rockets a chance to bring in another solid player.

4. Josh Smith

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There is one world where the Rockets use their MLE on someone other than a point guard, and that’s if they package Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas together with Papanikolaou to bring back a better point guard than they could acquire via free agency.

Were they to do that, they would be slimmed down at power forward. And if that’s the case, they may need to use their cash on Josh Smith.

There’s a bit of a chance, however, that Smith stays for the non-Bird exception as it is. When the Detroit Pistons waived him last December, they did so using the stretch provision.

Per Larry Coon:

"

If another team signs a player who has cleared waivers, the player's original team is allowed to reduce the amount of money it still owes the player (and lower their team salary) by a commensurate amount. This is called the right of set-off. This is true if the player signs with any professional team -- it does not have to be an NBA team. The amount the original team gets to set off is limited to one-half the difference between the player's new salary and the minimum salary for a one-year veteran (if the player is a rookie, then the rookie minimum is used instead).

"

Next year, the Pistons owe Smith $5.4 million, and the one-year veteran’s minimum is $845,049. If the Rockets signed him to the non-Bird exception, which is 120 percent of the 10-year veteran’s minimum, that would work out to $1.8 million. The Pistons could set off $500,000 (half the difference), meaning they would owe him $4.9 million. Add in his Rockets salary, and Smith would make a total of $6.7 million.

If the Rockets paid Smith the MLE, then the set off would be greater ($2.3 million)—meaning Detroit would owe him just $3.1 million. Added together with his Rockets salary, it would come to $8.5 million.

Ergo, while the Rockets would be paying Smith $4.6 million more with the MLE, Smith would be making only $1.8 million extra because of the weirdness of the stretch provision. And that’s why he might be willing to give them a discount for saving his career.

But if he’s not, and the Rockets trade one of their power forwards for a point guard, they will be better off using it on Smith to keep him around.

3. Jeremy Lin

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I will pause here to let you laugh at the idea of bringing back Jeremy Lin.

Finished? OK. Having dispensed with that, let’s move on.

Lin was characterized as being a defensive liability while he was in Space City before, but looking back at the 2013-14 season, it’s perhaps not as bad as some people remember. The Rockets' defensive rating with him on the bench was 104.3 compared to 102.0 when he was on, per NBA.com.

Furthermore, Lin’s defensive real plus-minus was plus-.28, per ESPN.com. And this year, it was plus-.27. By comparison, presently starting Patrick Beverley’s was minus-.30.

Isn’t it within the realm of possibility that the Rockets’ improvement this year had more to do with swapping Chandler Parsons for Trevor Ariza, the increased commitment of James Harden and the system of J.B. Bickerstaff?

Lin can create shots, he’s 34.9 percent from deep in his career. The team’s offensive rating was 111.5 when he was on the court with Harden his last season in Houston, so they certainly work well together.

It’s not utterly insane to consider bringing Lin back.  

2. Mo Williams

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Mo Williams seems to be on track to play for every team in the league before he retires. He already has donned the uniforms of the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Hornets.

Why not the Houston Rockets?

Unlike some of the other well-traveled players, Williams has been productive virtually everywhere he’s been, which makes it odd that he’s never latched on anywhere. He has the two-fold threat of being able to generate points and play off the ball.

Last season, he averaged 14.2 points and 6.2 assists. He shot a 55.2 effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoots, including a 41.3 three-point percentage. And 257 of his 341 field goals were off the dribble.

Williams can also distribute. Last year, the Hornets effective field-goal percentage was a league-worst 45.6 but 49.2 percent off Williams’ passes, indicating his positive influence on shooters. The Timberwolves shot roughly the same with or without him. But remember, the primary passer there was Ricky Rubio.

He might be a nomad, but Rockets fans shouldn’t let that color their perception of him.

1. Sergio Llull

Sergio Llull might not be the best-known candidate by Rockets fans, but that doesn’t mean he’s not the best candidate. In fact, to the contrary, it might be exactly why he is.

I wrote extensively about the reasons he would be a perfect fit for the Rockets here. In brief, he’s a 38.0 percent three-point shooter and 52.8 percent two-point shooter. He can drive the ball, hit the pull-up jumper or on the catch-and-shoot.

He plays intense on-the-ball defense, gets steals and likes to put those turnovers into transition opportunities.

And above all that, he’s an intense player with great leadership aptitude who shows up big in clutch situations. Note the video above.

That’s why Kevin McHale brought him up during an interview with Sports Talk 790’s Charlie Pallilo (h/t Max Croes from The Dream Shake), saying, “We’d love to bring over Sergio Llull from Spain”, and, “Signing a Sergio Lull would be huge.”

McHale coming out so directly indicates that Llull is their No. 1 priority. And with good reason.

There is good reason for a bit of skepticism too. Llull’s entire career has been overseas, and the 27-year-old might not transition his skills to the NBA. But everything he does suggests he can.

Signing him doesn’t prohibit bringing back Patrick Beverley or Jason Terry, the two primary point guards the Rockets used last season. Ergo, the risk is that they’re just no worse than last year.

But of the names on the list, Llull has the highest ceiling. That’s why he’s on top of Houston’s list in this one.