Dwyane Wade Would Be the NBA's Most Fascinating Free Agent on 2015 Open Market
If he opts out of his current deal, which is the overwhelming expectation, the Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade would become the most fascinating free agent to watch this summer.
When healthy, the future Hall of Famer is one of the best guards in basketball, but his extensive injury history and reported salary demands will make it tough for him to find what he's looking for at this stage of his career.
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Wade and the Heat are at an impasse in contract negotiations, opening the door for the three-time NBA champion's possible departure:
"According to associates, Wade wants to opt out this summer, with the hope that the Heat would give him a lucrative three-year deal that would extend past his 36th birthday.
That does not appear to be the Heat's preference. The Heat apparently would be content with Wade opting in for next season, then re-signing for good, but not huge, money for another two seasons after that.
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As for what Wade may be looking for on his next deal, Jackson reported this: "A Wade associate has told people that Wade would welcome a contract averaging $20 million annually over the next three years."
On the one hand, it's hard for the Heat to justify paying an oft-injured 33-year-old guard more than the $16.1 million Wade would make next season, especially with Goran Dragic an unrestricted free agent this summer and Hassan Whiteside due for a new deal the year after. After giving up two first-round picks for Dragic at the trade deadline, the Heat aren't going to just let him walk after half a season.
On the other, Wade has been as synonymous with the city of Miami as the South Beach diet and rapper Rick Ross. After all, Miami-Dade County was once renamed Miami-Wade County for a week, and Wade proclaimed himself a "Heat Lifer" when he signed his two-year, $31 million deal last July.
He also played a pivotal role in luring Chris Bosh and LeBron James to town in 2010 and has taken numerous pay cuts in the past. Additionally, letting an icon like Wade leave a year after James would be a huge gut punch to the franchise.
It's rare to see a player chase a big contract after sacrificing for so long. In the case of other loyal franchise linchpins such as Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, it's been the other way around. However, Wade's pursuit of a near-max deal in the twilight of his career is not unlike Kobe Bryant's final payday with the Los Angeles Lakers. The difference between the two is that Wade has previously collaborated with the Heat in making the money work.
Now, he expects that loyalty to be rewarded.
High Risk, High Reward
Wade still brings a lot to the table. He averaged 21.5 points per game last season, which was 11th-best in the league and his highest scoring output in three years. Since arriving in 2003, he has contributed under 20 points per game just twice in his career, one of which came during his rookie season.
Despite being a career 28.9 percent three-point shooter, Wade continues to be one of the most efficient players in basketball. His career player efficiency rating (PER) of 25.02 ranks third behind James and Chris Paul among active players and is eighth-best all-time, per Basketball-Reference. That's an incredible stat for a shooting guard who has never really learned to space the floor with his outside shot, especially in today's three-happy NBA.
Wade also has a wealth of experience, particularly in the playoffs, which would be beneficial to a team needing a final piece to get them over the hump. In addition to his three NBA championships, he has appeared in 152 postseason contests. Of players who could potentially hit the open market this summer, only Duncan (241), Manu Ginobili (187), James (178) and Paul Pierce (158) have appeared in more games, with James being the only one younger than Wade.
As we've seen with Pierce's run with both the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, having a playoff-tested veteran on the floor can come in handy in big moments.
That's the good news. This is the bad news.
Wade's scoring acumen and lack of durability go hand-in-hand. Without a reliable outside jumper, Flash's offensive game is predicated on attacking the basket. Of his 1,084 field-goal attempts in 2014-15, 456 came within 10 feet of the hoop, where he drained 59.2 percent. When he shot from 16 feet and beyond, he converted just 35.4 percent, including a mere 28.4 percent from three.
| At rim | 171 | 253 | 67.6 |
| 3 to 10 feet | 99 | 203 | 48.8 |
| 10 to 16 feet | 94 | 219 | 42.9 |
| 16 feet to below three-point line | 116 | 307 | 37.8 |
| Three-pointers | 29 | 102 | 28.4 |
Wade's style of play has caused ongoing issues with his knees, dating back to his meniscus surgery in 2002, and he's had to take strategic time off to rest in each of the last three seasons. He's never played a full campaign during his career, and he has missed 78 of a possible 312 regular-season games in the last four years. Wade's lack of durability even has former Heat head coach and current team president Pat Riley concerned, per Jackson:
"He's got to change the narrative himself about his body and about his injuries and about his missing games. And we had a discussion about this. But he always has to answer those questions, and I know those questions are legitimate because they're real.
So night in and night out, there's always the question of whether or not he can or he can't. And so I'd like to have him try to get past that first hurdle mentally and do whatever he has to do to get himself ready to practice and himself ready to play, each and every night.
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Additionally, a team would be making a huge gamble by committing $20-plus million to a player with 933 games and over 34,000 minutes (including playoffs) under his belt. How much longer can Wade go full-throttle on a nightly basis?
The epitome of a high-risk, high-reward player, if his body can withstand the punishment of the NBA grind, Wade can be a solid No. 2 option on a contender. However, if it can't, whatever team signs him will be weighed down financially by Wade's decline.
Limited Market
If Wade does follow through on opting out, he'll find the open market isn't as open as he might hope. The harsh reality is there are few teams, if any, that have a void at shooting guard and the financial resources to meet Wade's reported asking price.
Young squads with promise like the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz already have too much invested in their respective futures. After spending years developing prospects, why accelerate the rebuilding process by signing Wade?
Meanwhile, contenders with the cap space to possibly bring Wade on either have their own free agents to worry about (Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies) or are expected to look at other targets (San Antonio Spurs).
Even if Wade opts out in order to return to Miami for the money he's looking for, the Heat won't have enough cap flexibility to build around their new core. With Bosh ($22.1 million), Wade ($20 million) and Dragic (roughly $21.5 million on a max deal) under contract, the team would be committing $63.6 million of next year's projected $67 million salary cap to three players.
However, before Wade considers staying in South Beach, Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick suggests the two sides spend time clearing the air:
"Sometime prior to the draft, there must be work done toward mending fences and patching partnerships—so that if Wade does opt out, it's not because he's intent on heading out of town. The Heat must fully realize that for all they've done right—so much more than all the other organizations in the market, so much more than many competitors in their sport—they'll never be forgiven by fans if it's perceived that, in any way, they did their signature player wrong.
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In the end, Wade is left with essentially three options this summer: Opt in for next season and hit free agency in 2016 when the salary cap is expected to spike, take less money to play elsewhere or sign for the max with a less talented team and hope his presence can catapult them to the top.
Based on salary and production, Dwyane Wade has been arguably the most underpaid player in the NBA. He's routinely churned out All-Star seasons while making significantly less money than his equally talented peers. This summer, he's looking to be reimbursed for his sacrifices.
As if the alleged tension between Wade and the Miami Heat isn't dramatic enough, the possibility of the former salvaging his career elsewhere and the limited market for an aging, oft-injured slashing guard makes this the most fascinating story of the offseason.
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