How Toronto Raptors Should Approach Lou Williams' Free Agency This Offseason

Toronto Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri is a master of prying assets from other teams without them realizing they're getting royally shafted in the deal.

One of his first moves upon joining the Raptors organization was sending former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani to the New York Knicks for a package that included three players and three draft picks—a king's ransom considering Il Mago's decline in production over the years.

Ujiri followed up that heist almost one year later with an under-the-radar transaction, sending seldom-used veteran forward John Salmons to the Atlanta Hawks for Lou Williams and Lucas Nogueira. 

Bringing in Williams was a no-lose situation. He had a built a reputation over the years for being one of the NBA's best bench scorers. An ACL injury suffered in 2012 created some anxiety, but at a price tag of just $5.4 million for one season, the Raptors could afford to roll the dice to see if Williams could find his spark and maintain a clean bill of health.

His style of play was an acquired taste, with his scorer's mentality overtaking his ability to make sound basketball decisions in the heat of the moment. All was right in the universe, though, as long as the ball was falling through the hoop. 

Williams' finest performance came just weeks into the regular season against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers on Nov. 22 at Quicken Loans Arena. The 28-year-old dropped a career-high 36 points on 47.4 percent shooting that night, leading the Raptors to a 17-point victory over the eventual Eastern Conference champions.

Williams stared right in the face of the greatest player on the planet, crossed him over and drained an 18-foot fadeaway jumper in his grill. 

In 80 games, Williams averaged 15.5 points (third amongst bench players), 1.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists with a PER of 19.9 and true shooting percentage of 56.4.

He's never lacked in confidence. It was knowing when to take over games and when to contribute in other ways that Williams failed to discern. The Cleveland game was a prime example of Williams' trigger-happy nature paying dividends, but there were several instances when it blew up in Toronto's face.

There were seven games in which Williams hit just one shot but attempted at least eight. He finished the season shooting 40.4 percent from the field, which ranked him near the bottom of the NBA for players attempting at least 11 shots. 

“You continue to go. You continue to push forward,” said Williams back in February, per Eric Koreen of the National Post. “In 82 games, if you don’t have a couple of bad ones, you’re really special in this league. There are only a handful of those guys in this league. It’s part of the process. You keep your head up and continue to play.”

Voters looked past Williams' inconsistencies when selecting the 2015 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, recognizing his contributions to the Raptors' franchise-best 49-win season instead of holding his poor percentages and one-dimensional arsenal against him. 

It was the first hardware of his 10-year career and the first individual award given to a Raptors player since Vince Carter was named Rookie of the Year in 1999.

With that recognition comes more eyes seeking to acquire his services when he hits unrestricted free agency this summer. Shams Charania of RealGM.com reports that Williams is expected to receive strong interest from the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings. 

Steven LeBron of Raptors HQ thinks the money Williams may garner, which could be anywhere between $8 million and $10 million per season, could be put to better use in other areas:

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Now that we've had some time from the end of the season, I think we can all take a step back and say that while Williams' style was fun, he was an isolation machine and not a very efficient one at that. For the price we had him for last year, that was fine, to a degree.

If we're paying him $8 million annually, I think we can all agree it would be much smarter for Masai Ujiri to invest that money elsewhere. Finding perimeter scoring off the bench is important, but not committing $8 million per year important, especially not for this roster.

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Toronto may fall victim to the dreaded "contract year" curse once again if they overpay Williams. Potential blunders like that bring back nightmarish memories of pizza, "ball" and awful goatees from one Hedo Turkoglu, who signed a five-year, $53 million deal with the team over five seasons ago. 

Many believe, including Doug Smith of the Toronto Star, that the Raptors' downward spiral on defense was largely a result of the offensive culture that took hold when Williams joined the franchise. What was once a top-10 defense in 2013-14 became a debacle in 2014-15, allowing 104.8 points per 100 possessions (23rd).

"That’s not to say he’s a horrible defender," said Smith. "Coaches tell me he’s far better than they had heard or expected—but it’s changed the psychological bent of the team as a whole."

Toronto was 7.8 points per 100 possessions better when Williams was on the floor. He won the Raptors several outings throughout the year but cost the team a bunch as well. Coming to terms with his Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde deviations makes it easier to stomach the roller coaster of emotions he'll put you through. 

With the NBA salary cap set to see a significant spike in the 2016-17 season, when the league's new television deal with ESPN and TNT kicks in, Williams may look into signing a short-term deal to cash in on a bigger payout next summer. 

On the other hand, he may realize that things aren't likely to get any better than they did this past season. It would be wise to sign a lucrative deal now while his value is the highest it's ever been. 

The Raptors have so many issues across the board, including a lack of rebounding and interior defense, that putting all of their eggs in the Williams basket and paying him too much money could cost them in the long run.

A fair deal would see him work under a three-year arrangement that doesn't exceed $25 million, with the third year being a team option.

Anything other than that, barring a short-term deal that makes sense for both sides, would be far too risky. 

Christopher Walder is a featured columnist for the Toronto Raptors at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.

Statistics and salary information provided by NBA.com/Stats, HoopsHype.com and Basketball-Reference.com.