Full Scouting Report for New York Knicks' Top 2015 NBA Draft Targets
Considering their team's lack of draft activity over the last decade, New York Knicks fans may not always feel the need to keep up with the expansive NCAA basketball landscape—including even the best programs and the NBA draft's top prospects.
This year, after a franchise-worst 17-65 campaign, all eyes should have been glued to the draft's biggest candidates since November.
What exactly the Knicks plan to do with their fourth overall pick is anybody's guess, which leaves them with plenty of options heading into draft night. There have been rumors of big names sliding into Phil Jackson's hands and whisperings of the opposite. Jackson may trade down or may stand pat.
Until June 25, we probably won't have any idea.
Which means for now, there are plenty of potential candidates to break down.
Top (Unlikely) Targets
Entering the lottery, the Knicks maintained a great chance at nabbing a top-three pick and thus a high probability of taking Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell—whom most can agree to be the top three prospects.
Now, it's not that simple. Some surprises will need to go down next week for New York to land one of the three, whether it be a miraculous trade up by Jackson or a wild card slipping into the top three.
It's a near certainty that Towns won't fall to No. 4, but if he did, the Knicks would end up with one of the highest-value picks ever. With an expansive offensive arsenal—including a jumper that extends to the three-point line and some go-to moves close to the rim—combined with top-flight defending, Towns could go first overall.
There has been at least one report from TheKnicksBlog.com that Okafor could fall to the Knicks at No. 4—although this scenario still seems unlikely. The Duke center's defensive ceiling has been a topic of worrisome discussion during the workout season. But after the freshman dominated the offensive end of the court at relatively unprecedented rates, front offices would likely be more skittish when it comes to passing over him than selecting him.
DraftExpress' mock draft has the Knicks selecting Russell with their fourth pick after the Philadelphia 76ers go with Kristaps Porzingis. The Sixers would need to be in love with Porzingis if they elect to add another big man into the fold, along with Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. But with the latter's health issues popping up again, the Ohio State point guard may become just a tad more of a candidate for New York.
Russell's combination of shooting, penetration and playmaking makes for one of the most complete point guards the draft has seen in recent memory. At 6'5", he has the size and athleticism to compete defensively with both guard positions.
All that being said, Towns, Okafor and Russell could all be gone by the time New York picks at No. 4. That is why it's more important to consider the fits within the next group of standouts.
Fourth-Overall Hopefuls
Emmanuel Mudiay
After spending this past season playing professionally in China, 19-year-old Emmanuel Mudiay is a more realistic candidate for the Knicks at No. 4. Many have debated his placement among point guards in this draft, but Russell's shooting prowess and all-around offensive stability have been enough to keep Mudiay ranked second at the position, generally speaking.
If the Knicks have a chance to select the 6'5", 200-pounder, it would be a tough opportunity to pass up.
Mudiay is a strong, quick, athletic guard with a tremendous feel for the pick-and-roll and an ability to drive the lane. As with any player the Knicks will consider, his fit within the triangle offense has been bandied about. But according to Marc Raimondi of the New York Post, that adjustment won't be an issue.
“I feel like I can adjust to any system, to any style of play," Mudiay said. "I can play a half-court system, too. … [The triangle] is challenging, but I think the more you get into it, the more you learn it, the more you understand it.”
Months ago, DraftExpress compiled a scouting video, outlining his strengths and weaknesses.
Among his strengths are his physical gifts and finishing ability, which would immediately help New York, no matter how free agency pans out. Over the last several years with Carmelo Anthony as the focal point, the team has struggled to find players who can create offense for themselves. With Mudiay's knack for navigating the pick-and-roll as well as isolation, he could instantly solve that issue, at least partially.
Defensively, where the Knicks have struggled over the last decade, Muiday is a question mark. His athletic gifts project to make a solid NBA defender, with quick feet and a 6'8" wingspan that can minimize any passing lane. His development on that end seems to revolve around effort.
The primary flaw when speaking of Mudiay as a top prospect is his shooting. He nailed just 30 percent of his threes in China, and some misses didn't even come close. That's possibly the most correctable flaw over time, but John Wall, in particular, has been a success story of developing into a star without a pristine jumper.
If all works out, Wall seems like an optimistic comparison for Mudiay eventually. Maybe not quite as wildly athletic or quick as Wall, Mudiay is always a force with the ball in his hands, and his impact isn't limited to creating for himself.
Justise Winslow
Ending his freshman Duke campaign on a high note—perhaps contributing more to the school's national title-game victory than teammate Jahlil Okafor—Justise Winslow is an easy prospect to embrace. He entered the season with a reputation for locking down on the defensive end, and as a Blue Devil, he did just that.
Coming in at 6'6 ½" with shoes and a wingspan over 6'10" at the NBA Draft Combine, Winslow projects to be able to guard multiple positions as a pro. In just one season under Mike Krzyzewski, the legendary coach sang high praise about the swingman's defending.
With more polish, that trait could expand to become more versatile and maybe even elite. But right away, Winslow will be a difference-maker for any lottery team.
His offensive impact had been much less touted entering his season with Duke, but the 19-year-old worked to erase those doubts this year. Labeled a worrisome three-point shooter months ago, he sank 46 of his 110 attempts from deep (41.8 percent). One could argue that several of those looks were open ones, as a result of Okafor's presence, but that scenario would be similar to his fit in New York with Anthony.
As for the rest of his current offensive repertoire, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman explained:
"Realistically, teams shouldn't expect much offensively from Winslow as a rookie. His ball skills, from his handle to his one-on-one game, are still a work-in-progress. The fact that he shot 2-of-19 on pull-up jumpers (via DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony) is a fairly telling stat regarding where he's at as a scorer.
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Still, his defensive makeup and three-point stroke should pay immediate dividends. Making use of his frame and athleticism in the triangle, being mobile and setting picks, would also come naturally for Winslow with the Knicks. The team has been deprived of two-way talent for years, and he could finally become part of the solution.
According to ESPN.com's Ian Begley, the Duke product is "in play" for New York after an impressive workout last week. And—for what it's worth—from the looks of his Instagram account, Winslow has been spending most of the summer in New York City.
Willie Cauley-Stein
Without a center on the roster heading into the offseason, the Knicks would be wise to explore all options at the position through the draft. With Okafor and Towns likely off the board by No. 4, Willie Cauley-Stein should remain a possibility.
His value, given his offensive limitations, is debatable. Some would say his one-sided arsenal is too restrictive to select No. 4. But the Kentucky center's rim protection this past season was integral to the Wildcats' near-perfect run and NCAA-best defense.
At 21 years old—roughly two years older than most other top prospects—Cauley-Stein's discipline is a big reason why. Watch him neglect to fall for a Frank Kaminsky pump fake in this Vine courtesy of Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien:
O'Brien also goes on to write about WCS' defense:
"Some of Cauley-Stein's best work comes as a help defender as well. He has terrific closing speed and leaping ability, and he comes out of nowhere to obliterate slashers who thought they had a clear path. Perhaps you've seen some of the highlights.
"The combination of his physical profile and athleticism makes him a huge asset in rim protection," Rafael Uehara of Upside & Motor noted. "Cauley-Stein is very aggressive rotating off the weak side and can elevate off the ground in a pinch."
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It would be a defensive upgrade that the Knicks desperately need and would also enable them to ignore the center market in free agency, allowing them to spend major dollars elsewhere.
Cauley-Stein's fit in the offense would need work. He is splendidly mobile and a terrific screener, which makes for a good start in off-ball situations. But he also needs to be a threat somehow, and in college, he rarely was.
In a workout video courtesy of DraftExpress, the center has been working to add a jump shot into his arsenal in time for his pro career.
Even if it's a simple 15-footer to keep defenses honest, he'll need some type of shot to succeed in the league. If he can hone those corner threes from the workout video above? Then there's no question about his value at No. 4.
Trade-Down Candidates
Cameron Payne
If the Knicks aren't floored by Mudiay's prospects at fourth overall, Jackson could trade down toward the late lottery picks and acquire multiple assets. Murray State point guard Cameron Payne has generated buzz around New York lately, stemming from Jackson's reported interest, according to ESPN.com's Ian Begley.
Averaging 20.2 points and six assists this past year, Payne projects to be a solid option in an NBA backcourt early on. He isn't as athletic or quick as Mudiay, but he's fluid. At 6'1 ½" with shoes, Payne stretches out to a wingspan over 6'7". This puts him right in line with Jackson's other Knicks backcourt pickups—Langston Galloway and Thanasis Antetokounmpo also boast long wingspans and athletic frames.
DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony gave more insight on the guard's offensive game:
"In the half-court, he changes speeds nicely and has a few different gears he can get to, which helps him in particular on the pick and roll, an area that made up nearly half of his overall offense. Payne sees the floor very well and utilizes all kinds of different types of passes, using both hands and sides of the court with outstanding timing and confidence. He stays very low on his drives, which, along with his ball-handling ability and variety of hesitation moves, helps compensate for the fact that he's not blessed with incredible blow-by speed or great strength.
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You can almost describe Payne as the type of point guard Jackson has historically employed in his Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers starting lineups, but with a far greater ceiling. Point men never have been a focal point in Jackson's triangle, rarely getting to showcase extreme creativity within the structured sets. Payne's limited quickness and iffy finishing skill don't make him a threat to dominate the ball, but his playmaking and shooting ability could make for a terrific fit in an ancillary role on the Knicks.
Trey Lyles
One of the more interesting bits to leak this draft season came from Frank Isola of the New York Daily News early this month, when he reported the Knicks are "enamored" with Kentucky forward Trey Lyles.
On the surface, it's confusing. Lyles is a lottery-level prospect but the third-best player on his own team in this draft. He doesn't possess a three-point ball or play overly impactful defense. He's mainly an old-fashioned scorer from in close who will get down and dirty, and work for points in or near the paint.
That sounds an awful lot like basketball in 1998. Or what Jackson thinks can still work today.
Lyles' ceiling could be comparable to a Greg Monroe type, which makes sense considering the Knicks' reported interest in the Piston, per Zack Cox of NESN. Adding Lyles (or Monroe) wouldn't seem to mesh with Anthony's presence, since he'll likely bump up to the power forward as his career progresses and occupies the same space most "true" power forwards would.
The Knicks have a lot of needs, and Lyles wouldn't be filling a single one. This pairing is a curious one, to say the least.
Frank Kaminsky
If trading down is what the Knicks decide on and Payne is off the board, there's a chance that reigning national player of the year Frank Kaminsky could be suiting up at Madison Square Garden next season.
The Knicks are working Kaminsky out on Tuesday, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post. An impressive showing could lead to an interesting scenario for Jackson.
Kaminsky's pro prospects have been questioned throughout his four years, despite his NCAA prominence. At 7'0", 231 pounds, his post presence is fairly non-existent. At least in the early stages of his career, he projects to be a stretch 4—which, beside Anthony at the 3, could work.
Coming off a season in which he shot 41.6 percent from the arc at Wisconsin, Kaminsky would instantly add more outside shooting to the triangle. His mobility is limited, but with some work, his individual offense could become a strength as a pro. He wasn't much of a playmaker in college, averaging 2.6 assists during his senior season, but his basketball IQ and good reads would bode well for the system.
For more on Kaminsky's potential fit, Rick Pietro of nbadraft.net scouted Kaminsky in late 2014:
"[W]ill he be able to succeed in an offensive system different from the one he thrives in at Wisconsin? The fact that he struggled so mightily in the wide open format in front of so many scouts at adidas Nations in the summer has to be a concern ... Theoretically he is the perfect guy to play in the triangle offense, in a way that maybe only Pau Gasol did, and certainly he could find his place an offense like the Spurs (every high IQ player could) ... But could he survive in more ISO oriented offenses where he will not have the ball in his hands much?
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It's an intriguing picture: the Naismith player of the year taking his show to The Garden, as the Knicks attempt to rebuild a winning team in Phil Jackson's image. Kaminsky would be the Zen Master's first major acquisition, and after months and years of doubts toward the 22-year-old's pro career, it would be a courageous one.
Paired with Anthony's scoring, though, and with enough cap space to add sufficient defensive support and rim protection, it might be crazy enough to work.
Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6.
Stats and information from DraftExpress, nbadraft.net and Sports-Reference.com.
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