Potential Landing Spots for DeMarre Caroll in 2015 NBA Free Agency
NBA free agency is a strange months-long span of the offseason that gives rise to bizarre, unanswerable word problems.
Example: Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll made $2.5 million dollars during a breakout campaign that culminated with him gutting out a conference finals series on one leg—a series that required him to guard LeBron James, the greatest basketball-playing human known to, well, humans. Which team should Carroll sign with now that he's a free agent, and for how much?
Please show your work.
Where do you even start with a scenario like that?
The status quo, of course.
Atlanta Hawks
Sticking with the Hawks makes the most sense for Carroll, though staying put could cost him some cash. There are desperate teams out there that might be willing to overpay for the 28-year-old just to make a splash, and so much of what has made the Hawks great over the last couple of seasons has been their aversion to exactly that kind of overspending.
Then again, all that financial prudence has put Atlanta in a position where splurging on Carroll wouldn't be a disaster.
At most, the Hawks will have $42.9 million in salary commitments going into next year, which means they could toss $15 million a year at both Carroll and fellow unrestricted free agent Paul Millsap without approaching the projected $81.6 million luxury-tax threshold.
Besides, the Hawks still have Al Horford ($12 million) and Jeff Teague ($8 million) under contract at discounted rates next year. And Kyle Korver's deal actually decreases in annual value by a half-million dollars in each of the next two seasons. He'll be making just $5.2 million in 2016-17.
Teams this good aren't supposed to have books this clean. If the Hawks want to keep Carroll, they've got the spending power to do it.
The issue with Carroll, though, is money might not even be the most important thing to him.
You could certainly construe his willingness to play through that brutal knee sprain in the conference finals as an effort to show potential suitors he was healthy enough (and tough enough) to warrant a big offer. But that's not the way he made it sound, per Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal Constitution:
"I’ve been getting a million calls and emails about me, why am I there, this might be the biggest contract of my life. But at the end of the day this game isn’t promised to you. So whenever you’ve got an opportunity to play basketball, a lot of people say it’s bigger than money and it feels like that to me. I cherish this game and I want to be out there fighting, and if I have to fight on one leg, I’m gonna fight on one leg. I can’t let this opportunity pass me by. Eastern Conference finals, playing against LeBron James. I don’t care if I have to do it on one leg, I’ll hobble out there.
"
Sounds to me like Carroll appreciates having a shot at real success, like he values a chance to do something meaningful on the basketball court.
In other words, he likes winning.
That's something to keep in mind when weighing the possibility of Carroll checking out a New York Knicks team that lost 65 times last year.
Citing sources close to Carroll, the New York Post reported in May that the small forward had interest in joining up with the Knicks. Whether the report has legs or not, there's a decent amount of basketball sense behind a Knicks-Carroll marriage.
For starters, Carroll's defensive versatility could help New York hide Carmelo Anthony on the weaker frontcourt option. And you'd have to think having Carroll in the fold would lead to using Melo as a power forward on offense more frequently, which helps create space.
Depending on what they do with various options and non-guaranteed contracts, the Knicks will have between $32 and $41 million committed to 2015-16 salaries. That means they'll have money to burn.
Remember, though, the real free-agent bonanza is coming in 2016, so New York might want to avoid spending wildly now if it means it can't sign another max player or two next summer.
Saginaw, Michigan, product Draymond Green would be a great get for the Detroit Pistons, but the Golden State Warriors' power in restricted free agency means they can match any offer Green gets.
He's going nowhere.
So maybe the Pistons could target another gritty, defense-first forward in Carroll whose outside accuracy could help create room for cornerstone Andre Drummond.
Would anyone be opposed to seeing head coach Stan Van Gundy recreate his successful Orlando Magic formula by playing Carroll at the 4 and surrounding Drummond with shooters? Didn't think so.
And if the Pistons are committed to trotting out Reggie Jackson and/or Brandon Jennings in the backcourt, they'll need as much defensive prowess elsewhere as they can muster.
For PistonPowered's Dan Feldman, it's a question of cost. And a potential $15 million-per-year price tag is a little steep:
"That number is on the high side of projections for Carroll, but it’s not completely implausible. The cap is rising, and his skill set fits every system—including/especially Stan Van Gundy’s. Carroll will have plenty of suitors. Remember, players often sign with the team that offers the most money – which is often more than consensus value.
"
In the interest of completeness, you probably have to throw in the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and any other team with interest (the least meaningful word in free agency, by the way), money and an appreciation for Carroll's skills.
We'll see plenty of suitors pop up as July 1 draws nearer, but the realistic landing spots for Carroll are few.
And the one he's already in probably stands out as the best.
Salary information courtesy of BasketballInsiders.com unless otherwise indicated.
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