5 Potential Trap Games on Miami Dolphins' 2015 Schedule
Trap games tend to be my favorite Miami Dolphins games to cover.
The main reason being the fact that I get to roll out this oft-overplayed but still relevant and fun meme.
What is a trap game? Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz described it as "any game against a sub-.500 opponent slotted between two games against opponents who, on the season, posted records above .500."
I expand upon this definition by adding any regular-season game against a sub-.500 opponent that comes following an emotionally charged victory against an opponent with a similar or better record that affects the standings for both teams.
Based off my much broader definition, the Dolphins played in two "trap games" in 2014: Week 2 at Buffalo and Week 14 at the Jets. They went 1-1 in said games.
As for my explanation of their Week 2 game against Buffalo being a trap game despite the fact that the Bills would finish with a better record than the Dolphins, it's simple: Miami had just beaten New England by 13 points in an emotional Week 1 game where it came in as a decided underdog and at the time looked like a stronger team than the Bills.
This season, we won't really know what are the "trap games" until the season plays itself out. However, we'll look at five potential games that will see Admiral Ackbar making an appearance in future articles.
The games are listed in chronological order, with a full explanation as to why the term "trap game" is being used to describe said game.
Week 2: At Jacksonville
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Whether this game is a trap game or not will depend on how Miami fares in its first game of the season against Washington.
Some might look at Miami's Week 1 contest as a "trap game" because the Dolphins should be significantly better than Washington. While that might be true, I don't see how a Week 1 game is a trap game because it's the start of a new season, and your goal is to get off on the right foot.
Week 2 is when the real trap games start, and the perfect definition of a trap game presents itself against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars have made a lot of steady improvements this offseason, adding defensive tackle Jared Odrick and tight end Julius Thomas while solidifying their offensive line with the signing of Stefen Wisniewski.
The Jaguars also had a spectacular draft, although we won't see the true potential of their class for another year thanks to No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler Jr. tearing his ACL on the first day of rookie camp.
With Fowler, the Jaguars could've had one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, but they're still very solid up front without him.
When it comes to game plans, the Jaguars drew up a good one against Miami last year, one that saw them get plenty of pressure up front—which they will be better at doing this season—and controlling the tempo of the game.
Had it not been for Blake Bortles' turnovers, the game would've been a lot closer than 27-13 at the end.
If Bortles is able to improve, expect the Jaguars to come out with the same game plan. The talent level isn't quite there for Jacksonville to truly compete in the NFL, but the building blocks are there, and it won't just be the Dolphins who wind up looking at Jacksonville as a "trap game" in 2015.
Week 6: At Tennessee
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There's a good reason to think that the Dolphins should be either 3-1 or even 4-0 after their bye week, as three of their first four games come against teams that finished 4-12 or worse in 2014, with their one game against a team who finished above .500 coming at home.
After their bye week, the schedule gets much tougher. But before heading into a big stretch against teams that finished above .500 in 2014, they face the Tennessee Titans in Nashville.
I wrote about how close the Jaguars were to being considered "good" on the last slide, and if I were to put it in terms of how many years away they are from being "good", I'd say one.
The Titans are about five years away from being good. Their roster is fairly thin, they and will have a rookie signal-caller under center in 2015 who will have to make huge adjustments to his game in order to play in the NFL.
This should all scream "easy win" for Miami, but in the NFL—especially on the road—there's no such thing as an easy win.
This is a trap game not only because of the fact that the Titans on paper should be light-years behind the Dolphins, but because of the potential that Miami looks past Tennessee.
Just one week later, Miami will begin a stretch where it plays two games over the stretch of four days. The first of those games comes against a Houston Texans team that it will likely compete with for a wild-card spot in the AFC, and the Dolphins have never beaten them.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins' second game is a Thursday-night contest in Foxborough against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots.
None of those two games will be overlooked by Miami, but the week before against the Titans? That's one where the team will have to be very careful.
Week 10: At Philadelphia
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I don't think the Philadelphia Eagles will be that good in 2015.
They'll present a tough game for anyone on their schedule, but I don't see Sam Bradford as a fit at quarterback for their offense (assuming he stays healthy, which history shows isn't a guarantee).
Their offseason moves have been unorthodox to say the least, but not spoken about is the fact that the team is worse off because of many of them.
This includes the fact that, despite DeMarco Murray leading the NFL in rushing in 2014, LeSean McCoy is a better running back. Their receivers are worse as well, and with the way the team seems to be letting guard Evan Mathis twist in the wind, it seems like the offensive line might be worse in 2015 as well.
Because of all that, I don't see the Eagles being a team that's over .500 in 2015, and if they are, Chip Kelly is the Coach of the Year.
Assuming I'm right on my prediction for this team, it's a trap game for the Dolphins.
It will be their third straight road game, following two against big division rivals they will be competing with for playoff spots. Their next game after the Eagles is against Philadelphia's biggest rival, a Dallas Cowboys team that should be a Super Bowl contender.
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Week 12: At New York Jets
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Going into their second contest of the season against the New York Jets, the Dolphins will be coming off their toughest five-game stretch in recent memory—which includes three consecutive games on the road.
They'll also face another tough five-game stretch with four games against teams that finished above .500 in 2014, three games against teams that made the playoffs last season and two of those games coming against the teams that played in the 2014 AFC Championship Game.
A lot of potential for a look-forward game against the Jets here.
The Dolphins should be better than the Jets, and any comparison shouldn't be as close as it is.
I'd give the Jets a slight edge on defense—they are deeper in the secondary—but on offense, the Jets don't seem to have the offensive line or quarterback to match their playmaking wide receivers.
Yes, I'm aware that they boast a quarterback who threw for a perfect quarterback rating against Miami on the final day of the season, but that was a fluke caused by the perfect storm of a Dolphins offense that lost its way after a key player controversially exited the game and a Dolphins defense that was decimated by injury and couldn't stop the run or rush the passer.
It should be different this season, and while the Jets hold a lot of potential, they are still a team the Dolphins should beat twice in 2015.
Week 14: Vs. New York Giants
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For a variety of reasons, this should be an extremely fun Week 14 contest between the Dolphins and New York Giants.
It's the Giants' first visit to Miami since 1996. To put that into historical context, Bill Clinton had just won his second term in office, the starting quarterbacks were Dan Marino and Dave Brown, and Manning was in his redshirt junior year of college—and I'm talking about Peyton Manning, not a then-15-year-old Eli.
It will give Dolphins fans a chance to see Odell Beckham Jr., and the Dolphins will be wearing throwback uniforms from 1966 to honor the team's 50th season.
It's also sandwiched between a game against the Baltimore Ravens—who most recently have been the Dolphins' nemeses—and a trip out west to take on the San Diego Chargers.
As for the Giants, I don't really see how they will be better in 2015 than they were in 2014 when they finished 6-10. While OBJ should be greatly improved, the rest of the offense inspires yawns, and the offensive line is still a major work in progress.
As for the defense, this isn't the same Giants defense we have seen in the past with a devastating pass rush. Outside of Jason Pierre-Paul, whom should you fear on that line?
The Giants defense in general looks fairly weak.
This game is only being circled because it's a Monday-night game, but outside of that, it's the least important of Miami's final five games of the season. It wouldn't shock anyone if this was a game that got lost in the shuffle toward the end of the season and was looked past.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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