5 Potential Trap Games on the San Francisco 49ers' 2015 Schedule
Every season, teams get hit with trap games. Whether because of the distraction of a big upcoming matchup, a tough travel schedule or simply attrition of injuries, inferior teams pull upsets over superior ones all the time. Overlooking your opponents leads to losses in games teams should win.
For the San Francisco 49ers, last season's losses to the Chicago Bears in Week 2 (sandwiched between the season opener against longtime rivals Dallas and a game against division rival Arizona) and the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 (squeezed between the two games against Seattle) could be considered trap games.
Both matchups were against clearly inferior talent, opponents who finished the season with double-digit losses. Both represented lull points in otherwise competitive parts of the schedule. And both losses were embarrassing.
With the 49ers travelling the most in 2015 (27,998 miles), playing the tough NFC West, NFC North and AFC North in 14 of their 16 games this season and led by a rookie coaching staff, the odds that they’ll drop a winnable game or two seem very high.
But which games?
Obviously, trap games are by their very nature impossible to predict; part of the generally accepted definition of a trap game is an unexpected loss to a team that is generally considered to be inferior. However, by looking at teams with poor 2014 records, potential for improving in 2015 or scheduled between other tough matchups, we can come up with some possible candidates.
Here, in chronological order, are the five games 49ers fans have to be most wary of in terms of potential traps.
Week 5 at New York Giants
1 of 5
2014 record: 6-10
The road trip against the New York Giants is not only the first potential trap game on the schedule but also the most likely.
Leading up to this game, the 49ers will be coming off three straight games against 2014 playoff teams, facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 and the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. The two weeks after this game feature matchups against playoff teams as well, with the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks looming on the schedule.
All in all, this is arguably the only soft game on the schedule for a month-and-a-half. It’s not a very welcoming slate for Jim Tomsula and Company.
The 49ers also have to travel across three time zones to get to this one. According to Cold Hard Football Facts, West Coast teams have historically done slightly worse when having to travel all the way to the East Coast, although that effect is primarily isolated in the 10 a.m. (PST) games rather than a Sunday night one like the Week 5 matchup. Still, 49ers might suffer from the long trip.
In addition, the Giants should be significantly better in 2015 than they were last year. The Giants had the most Adjusted Games Lost to injury in 2014, according to Football Outsiders. They set the record in that statistic in 2013 and finished with the second-worst total of all time last season.
San Francisco had more than their fair share of injuries last season, but even the 49ers have to look at the list of key contributors New York lost and wince.
At some point, that injury luck is going to balance out. Eli Manning looks to have a terrific set of wide receivers in Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle, which could give the 49ers’ new cornerback set fits.
On the defensive line, Jason Pierre-Paul and Johnathan Hankins will get their shots at testing the new left guard, presumably Brandon Thomas. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a top cornerback and matches up well with Torrey Smith.
The Giants are set to improve, which could cause trouble if the 49ers overlook them.
Week 6 vs. Baltimore Ravens
2 of 5
2014 record: 10-6
With so many games against top opponents in 2015, it’s difficult to find five matchups against losing teams that look particularly difficult for the 49ers. So this one's a matchup against a playoff team that might nevertheless pose more difficulties than expected simply because of its place on the schedule.
The first matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco’s fiercest modern rivals, takes place on a Thursday night in Week 7. That’s only four days after this cross-conference matchup.
While passions will be somewhat high for this one thanks to it's being against Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin’s old team (after what’s bound to be a week of Jim Harbaugh-related questions for Ravens coach John Harbaugh), it’s by no means as important a game as the one looming just 96 hours after this one.
That’s just begging for a letdown the week before, and any sort of lack of focus can be lethal against a playoff-caliber opponent like Baltimore.
The new-look pass rush will have its hands full getting through the likes of Kelechi Osemele, Marshal Yanda and Ricky Wagner. Defensively, their linebacker corps is good as can be with Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith patrolling the middle of the field and Elvis Dumervil coming in on pass-rush downs. Brandon Williams is one of the top nose tackles in the league, and Will Hill is a punishing safety.
Altogether, that’s quite a test for an offense with at least four new starters that might not have fully jelled yet at this early juncture of the season.
It’s hard to call this one a “trap game” per se, considering the quality of Baltimore in general, but it’s definitely unfortunately placed on the schedule.
Week 8 at St. Louis Rams
3 of 5
2014 record: 6-10
The St. Louis Rams always seem to play the 49ers tough, even when their record is vastly inferior.
Last season, they came out strong in a Week 6 matchup before the 49ers were able to claw their way back and win, 31-17. Then they actually beat the 49ers in a Week 9 matchup, stopping the 49ers twice on the goal line on two questionable plays—both Michael Crabtree and Colin Kaepernick appear to have entered the end zone on two of the last three plays of the game, but there was no definitive angle.
This year’s trip to St. Louis comes after the first game against the Seattle Seahawks, meaning there is some letdown potential here.
The recent retirement of Anthony Davis brings more questions for an offensive line that will have to contain Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald—that’s not an easy task for a line at full strength, much less one missing two starters from last season and likely counting on at least one rookie.
In addition, this is one of those 1 p.m. PST starts with which West Coast teams generally struggle more. At the moment, the 49ers are scheduled to have five early games, more than in recent years.
One of the side benefits of the recent run of success has been a healthy share of prime-time and featured matchups, taking the 49ers out of the early slot and into more lucrative late-night positions. This year, they’ll have to slum with the rest of the league and play some of those early games.
Every year, it seems, people say this is the year the Rams put everything together and become contenders again, with the offense finally catching up to the defense. It doesn't seem likely. Nick Foles might be an upgrade over a perennially injured Sam Bradford but won't turn the offense around single-handedly.
However, rivalry games are always tough, and the Rams always seem to find enough juice to knock the 49ers around. Watch out for this one.
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Week 9 vs. Atlanta Falcons
4 of 5
2014 record: 6-10
If it seems like most of the trap games revolve around the scheduling of the two Seattle Seahawks games, you’re very perceptive.
The end of the 49ers’ schedule is significantly easier than the opening salvo, with matchups against the Bears, Browns and Rams. With so many of the difficult games slated for the first 10 weeks of the season, trap games are more likely to be found there.
You can’t overlook opponents unless you have someone to actually overlook toward.
The second Seahawks game takes place in Week 10, leaving this matchup against Atlanta as a potential trap, and there are reasons to believe Atlanta will improve in 2015.
The Falcons suffered a ton of offensive line injuries in 2014, finishing 30th in offensive AGL, according to Football Outsiders. They still managed a decently potent offensive attack without them, so adding a healthy front line might be enough to take them from good to great there, especially as Jake Matthews continues to improve.
Any offense that can start with Matt Ryan to Julio Jones has the potential to be deadly.
The defense will be much-improved with the addition of first-round pick Vic Beasley, and the Falcons have at least one great cornerback piece in place in Desmond Trufant.
Otherwise, they were talent-starved last season but brought in ex-Seahawks coordinator Dan Quinn into shake things up. We all know the 49ers’ struggles against Seattle’s defense in recent years, and while the Falcons don’t have the same talent level, they should be better by running a version of that scheme.
The Falcons could win the NFC South this year and thus could be overlooked at the moment. The 49ers shouldn't take them lightly—they could be a surprise team in 2015.
Week 13 at Chicago Bears
5 of 5
2014 record: 5-11
Last season, the 49ers had their Week 2 game against the Bears sewn up. After Phil Dawson’s third-quarter field goal made the score 20-7 going into the last 15 minutes, the 49ers should have been able to run the clock out and start the season 2-0.
Instead, Jay Cutler picked on Jimmie Ward, hitting Brandon Marshall for a touchdown. On the next offensive play, Colin Kaepernick threw an interception, setting up a Martellus Bennett touchdown. The very next drive, Kaepernick threw another interception, setting up another Brandon Marshall touchdown. The result was one of the more embarrassing losses of 2014.
This year’s rematch with the Bears takes place in Chicago in one of those 1 p.m. PST matchups and comes after back-to-back games against divisional rivals Seattle and Arizona. That’s a classic trap-game setup right there, and we saw what the Bears can do when a team lets up against them.
The Bears were undeniably a disaster last season, but that’s due in large part to the team's giving up on coach Marc Trestman. The Bears won the coaching carousel race this offseason, bringing in John Fox to run the team and hiring the top offensive and defensive coordinators of the past five years in Adam Gase and ex-49er Vic Fangio, respectively. That’s bound to give the team a boost.
Brandon Marshall’s gone, but quarterback Jay Cutler still has Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Kevin White to throw to, which could make for a very dangerous attack. Cutler got too much of the blame for the team’s struggles last season; while he’ll never be worth his massive contract, there’s reason to expect him to play to at least the league average in 2015.
The defense is another story, with question marks abounding thanks to the shift to a 3-4 defense and the general poor quality of the players Fangio has inherited.
Fangio should be somewhat pumped up to take on the team that promoted one of his underlings ahead of him to be head coach, however, so expect a level above his A-game. There might be a degree of catharsis from getting to pick apart the offense that his defense carried for three seasons in San Francisco.
At the very least, this is the most interesting game in the 2015 season, and if the 49ers don’t take it seriously, it could easily be a trap.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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