NBA Draft 2015: Identifying the Biggest Needs for Every Lottery Team
All NBA lottery teams will go into draft night hoping to land a star. But truth be told, many would be happy to simply walk away with a permanent, reliable rotation piece.
Especially one capable of addressing the roster's biggest void.
No matter where these clubs find themselves on the league's pecking order, they all have areas they could upgrade. By analyzing their current roster and scanning over the stat sheets, we can bring those needs to light.
Not every franchise will use the draft to address a need. There's a sentiment in every sport that it makes sense to pursue the best player available, and that's particularly true in a star-driven league like this.
In other words, don't think of this as a mock draft. We're not predicting what moves the 14 lottery teams will make, but rather we're identifying where they need the most help. We'll still offer up some realistic solutions—what good is a diagnosis without a recommended treatment?—but these squads will have to decide how much (or how little) they'll consider their needs on June 25.
Jonathan Wasserman's Draft Analysis
1 of 15The draft offers some potentially miraculous healing powers for the franchises sitting near the top of the board. With each pick holding the possibility of changing a club's fortune, this time of the basketball year is often one of unbridled optimism.
There's nothing wrong with having hope, but it needs to be coupled with some realistic expectations. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman helps provide some perspective here. Between his mock draft and big board, we can get a pretty clear idea of who might be available when each lottery team makes its selection.
Since we're not only determining each squad's biggest need but also examining some possible remedies, it's imperative to keep this information in mind.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Frontcourt Versatility
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The Minnesota Timberwolves "earned" their jackpot prize by enduring a season that featured only 16 wins against 66 losses. Even with an intriguing collection of young talent on the roster, that abysmal record shows how many weak spots still exist in this rotation.
But none are more pressing than the underwhelming options on the interior.
Nikola Pekovic is a bruiser on the boards and a smooth scorer in the low post thanks to his combination of solid footwork and soft touch around the basket. But the 29-year-old has missed an average of 33 games in the past three seasons and is coming off surgery on his right Achilles tendon. Even when he's healthy, he offers limited offensive range and no rim protection.
Sophomore Gorgui Dieng brings a deeper bag of tricks inside the lines. But he's far more of a complementary piece than a featured one.
The Wolves need more from their frontcourt, particularly on the defensive end. They had this season's worst field-goal percentage allowed both inside the restricted area and in the non-restricted area part of the paint. They tied for the third-fewest blocks per game (4.0) and finished only 15th in fast-break scoring (12.9 per game, via Team Rankings), which seems criminally low for how many young athletes they have.
Minnesota needs a two-way force up front. Karl-Anthony Towns, who can defend the rim and spread the floor as a shooter, should be the obvious choice—even with ESPN Insider Chad Ford reporting that Jahlil Okafor may be the current favorite of Timberwolves executive-coach Flip Saunders.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Interior Scoring and Defense
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The Los Angeles Lakers just completed their worst season in franchise history. Their 61 losses broke the previous low mark of 55 set back in...2013-14.
Regardless which position they address in the draft, there's a very good chance the incoming player will be an upgrade. But the Lakers should focus on strengthening the frontcourt, the one where Carlos Boozer averaged nearly 24 minutes per game this past season.
It's both an area of serious need in L.A. and where the top two players in this class reside.
The Lakers defense offered little resistance from point-blank range. They were the fifth-worst team against shots within five feet of the basket. Their two leaders in blocks, Ed Davis and Jordan Hill, ranked 68th and 75th, respectively, in opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim among the 83 players who faced at least five such shots per game.
In a best-case scenario, the Purple and Gold have two positions settled going forward in point guard Jordan Clarkson and power forward Julius Randle. The jury remains out on both, but they're still the foundation of this prospect collection.
Ideally, Towns would fall into the Lakers' lap and immediately shore things up on both ends. But if he's off the board, Okafor could help this club in a number of ways.
"Jahlil Okafor would be quite the consolation prize for a team looking to compete right away," Wasserman wrote. "He should be able to give the Lakers an immediate option to feed in the half court, given his size, strength and spectacular post skills."
The Lakers need size, strength and a post-Kobe Bryant era go-to scorer. Okafor could potentially provide all three.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Playmaking and Floor Spacing
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Whether the Philadelphia 76ers want to win next season or five years from now, they'll need to eventually help themselves in the backcourt. And that means finding someone who can elevate his teammates with passing and take some heat away from them as a shooting threat.
The Sixers have been forced to settle for one or the other lately. Former Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams was traded away in February in part because he's a career 31.8 percent shooter outside of three feet. That's not nearly good enough to help Philly's big men breathe underneath.
"We all know as we start playing with Joel [Embiid] and Nerlens [Noel], we're going to have to sprinkle some perimeter players in the game," Sixers coach Brett Brown said after the trade, via Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "That's this game. You better put the ball in the hole from the perimeter."
Just ask the NBA Finals combatants. Both the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers ranked inside the top four in three-point makes during the regular season.
Shooting is a must in today's game, but it can't be the only thing the Sixers get from their guards. Isaiah Canaan can fill it up from distance (2.7 threes per game on 36.4 percent shooting in 22 games with Philadelphia), but his career 3.6 assists per 36 minutes don't instill a lot of confidence that he can run an offense.
The Sixers could get a shooter and table-setter in 6'5" combo guard D'Angelo Russell. With Brown, a Gregg Popovich disciple, at the helm, it's obvious why the team would want someone capable of filling both roles.
4. New York Knicks: Anything but a Scoring Forward
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That assessment sounds harsh, but it might be true. Outside of perennial All-Star Carmelo Anthony, who do the New York Knicks have that's definitely a part of their long-term plans?
Other than Anthony, only three other players hold guaranteed contracts for next season: Jose Calderon, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cleanthony Early. Calderon just wrapped the least-efficient campaign of his 10-year career and was shopped heavily around the trade deadline, via ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Ian Begley. Hardaway is a shooting guard who owns a career 40.8 shooting percentage. Early has 39 games under his belt.
The Knicks could virtually go any direction on draft night. They were outperformed by their opponents at all five positions this season, via 82games.com. And although they avoided the league's worst record (by one win), they did post its lowest net efficiency rating of minus-10.1 points per 100 possessions.
That's why no one can seem to get a grasp of their draft plans. Three different players were mentioned by the four writers of Basketball Insiders' consensus mock draft: Willie Cauley-Stein, Emmanuel Mudiay and Justise Winslow. One source told New York Daily News' Frank Isola that the team is "enamored with Trey Lyles."
Cauley-Stein is an above-the-rim center. Mudiay is an athletic attacking point guard. Winslow is a two-way wing. Lyles is a smooth power forward with potential as a long-range shooter. And if either of the two centers Towns and Okafor should slip this far, the Knicks would likely snatch them up.
5. Orlando Magic: Rim Protection
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The identity of the Orlando Magic is starting to take shape. And it looks an awful lot like a potential defensive juggernaut.
Orlando has left the past two drafts with three possible elite defenders: Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. The team doubled down on its commitment to the defensive end with the recent hiring of head coach Scott Skiles.
"His hard-nosed teams have tended to suffocate opponents with discipline and defense," wrote Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan. "In seven of his 13 seasons, Skiles has touted a defense that ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency. On six of those seven occasions, the defense graded out among the top four."
That being said, Orlando's rebuilding effort is still a work in progress.
This team ranked just 25th in defensive efficiency. Only five clubs allowed opponents to shoot a higher percentage at the rim than the Magic's 53.3.
This roster still lacks an imposing presence in the paint. Center Nikola Vucevic is a good scorer, shooter and rebounder, but he's not a shot-blocker. Among the 17 7-footers who played at least 1,500 minutes, Vooch had the third-worst block percentage at 1.7.
If Orlando addresses this need on draft night, it should target human pogo stick Willie Cauley-Stein. He tallied 3.6 blocks per 40 minutes during his three-year career at Kentucky. In 39 games this past season, Cauley-Stein had 67 swats. That's 13 more than Vucevic managed in 74 outings.
6. Sacramento Kings: Frontcourt Shooting
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DeMarcus Cousins had one of the best statistical seasons in the entire league. He was the only player with top-five averages in both points (24.1, fifth) and rebounds (12.7, third) per game. His 25.2 player efficiency rating was the NBA's seventh-highest.
But all of that work resulted in nothing more than the Sacramento Kings' seventh consecutive sub-.400 winning percentage (29-53, .354). Making matters worse, the team has yet to give Boogie the type of frontcourt player who could make his life easier.
Cousins could really use some shot-blocking support on the back line of Sacramento's 27th-ranked defense. But a stretch big man could have an even bigger impact. With less congestion in the paint, Cousins could feast on single coverage or have cleaner lanes to pass out of double-teams.
Current Kings forwards Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, who are both on the books through at least next season, can't scratch either itch. Sliding Rudy Gay to the 4 isn't a safe bet, since his 230-pound frame isn't built for the NBA post. To wit, power forwards posted a 16.5 PER against him compared to the 13.9 PER he surrendered to opposing 3s, via 82games.com.
This internal problem demands an external solution. If Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis is still available when it's the Kings turn to pick, he should get strong consideration.
"He has legitimate three-point range, made possible by a smooth, quick shooting motion," Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien wrote. "... His height and monstrous wingspan obviously enable him to alter shots as a one-on-one defender or helper."
Shot-blocking and three-point shooting? Sign Sacramento up.
7. Denver Nuggets: Consistent Perimeter Scoring
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Remember the run-and-gun (and fun) Denver Nuggets of yesteryear? They're quickly becoming a distant memory.
This formerly high-powered offense just produced only the 12th-most points per game (101.5). And an inability to shoot the long ball—28th in percentage (32.5)—was a main reason why.
Denver was also hurt by the lack of a go-to scorer. That's plagued this franchise ever since the 2011 trade that sent Melo to the Big Apple. Ty Lawson led the way with 15.2 points per game. That was tied for 62nd overall among players who averaged at least 24 minutes a night.
And even Lawson's scoring skills may no longer be a part of this offensive arsenal.
"Lawson represents the Nuggets’ best trade asset and it seems both parties are at least open to exploring Lawson's trade value," wrote Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. "For the Nuggets to truly turn the corner, a major trade may be inevitable and Lawson is likely the center piece of the deal."
With or without Lawson, the Nuggets need someone who can consistently put points on the board. Croatian sharpshooter Mario Hezonja would make a ton of sense in the Mile High City. He can light the lamp from distance as either a spot-up marksman or navigating around screens. His quickness and athleticism help him create his own shots.
If the Nuggets are ready to run again—they have discussed their coaching vacancy with Mike D'Antoni, sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski—Hezonja could help them hit the accelerator.
8. Detroit Pistons: Three-Point Shooting
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Detroit Pistons executive-coach Stan Van Gundy once built a formidable offense around the uber-athletic Dwight Howard and a slew of snipers. There's a hope he can do the same with the similarly freakish Andre Drummond.
But Van Gundy needs to find some perimeter specialists first. The Pistons finished this season tied for 17th with a 34.4 three-point percentage.
Drummond's presence alone heightens the need for proper spacing. During his three NBA seasons, more than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts have come within three feet of the basket. This year, nearly 80 percent of his 494 makes were either dunks (166), layups (158) or tip-ins (70).
The need for outside shooting will grow exponentially if the Pistons bring back Reggie Jackson (restricted) and/or Greg Monroe (unrestricted) in free agency. Jackson is a career 29.4 percent shooter from deep. Monroe rarely strays away from the paint (86.4 percent of his career attempts come within 10 feet).
If the Pistons let Monroe walk, they might have stretch bigs such as Porzingis or Myles Turner on their radar. If they keep the Moose, they could roll the dice on former Kentucky sharpshooter Devin Booker. During his lone season in Lexington, Booker buried 41.4 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
That should be music to the ears of both Drummond and Van Gundy.
9. Charlotte Hornets: Two-Way Wing
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Ideally, teams don't have to choose between three-point shooting and perimeter defense. But the Charlotte Hornets don't have that luxury.
More often than not, Hornets head coach Steve Clifford has gone with defense. Truth be told, he hasn't really had another option.
Charlotte wrapped the 2014-15 campaign ranked 26th in three-point makes (498) and dead last in perimeter percentage (31.8). The Hornets didn't have a single player who attempted at least 50 threes and made 36 percent of them. Veteran forward Marvin Williams came closest at 35.8 percent.
Their wing trio of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson and Lance Stephenson adds zero floor spacing. Henderson has only hit 30.9 percent of his career threes. Stephenson connected on only 18 of his 105 long-range looks during his debut season in Charlotte (17.1 percent). Kidd-Gilchrist has attempted 18 triples over his first three years in the league.
"The Hornets don’t have a good defender with 3-point range in their entire perimeter rotation," noted Grantland's Zach Lowe.
That observation came back in December. It still rings true today.
If Winslow slips this far, Charlotte would almost certainly end his slide. If not, the Hornets should have their sights set on Hezonja, Booker, Stanley Johnson or Kelly Oubre.
10. Miami Heat: Reserve Scoring
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One way or another, the Miami Heat will look dramatically different next season. Either they'll finally field their intriguing starting five at full strength, or they'll scramble to replace the likes of Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and/or Luol Deng should any seek out greener pastures in free agency.
No matter how this summer treats Miami, a pressing need for scoring off the bench won't dissipate. The Heat had the third-worst scoring reserve unit this season, via HoopsStats.com. With the injury bug forcing them to rely on emergency options like Tyler Johnson, Henry Walker and Michael Beasley, that ranking isn't very surprising.
But it obviously has to change. Especially if Wade, Dragic and Deng join Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside in a starting lineup that could (or maybe even should) contend for a top seed in the Eastern Conference.
"That five is pretty good, if everyone's healthy, but you need a little more than that," Wade said in March, via Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post. "... If we come back next season healthy and everybody's going, we still need to add a few pieces. We could be pretty good."
The Heat need shooting. Their 33.5 three-point percentage ranked just 24th overall. That should put them in the market for Hezonja, Johnson and Booker. But there are a number of holes to fill on this second team. That could lead Miami to consider targeting Turner or a more seasoned prospect like the Wisconsin duo of senior Frank Kaminsky and junior Sam Dekker.
Anything that bolsters one of the league's least productive benches is a move worth making.
11. Indiana Pacers: Versatility, Athleticism Up Front
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The Indiana Pacers know the league is moving toward more of a pace-and-space style of play. And they also understand that an aging, plodding frontcourt combination of David West and Roy Hibbert isn't built for that type of game.
"We'd like to play a little faster tempo," Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird said, via Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star. "And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller."
Indiana played at the 19th-fastest pace this season, averaging 95.5 possessions per 48 minutes. It was the fastest this team has operated at since 2010-11. Considering this club has fielded a bottom-third offense in each of the last two seasons, it's easy to see why the Pacers would be so open to change.
This doesn't seem like a short-term measure, either. Not with Hibbert and West entering the final year of their current contracts, assuming both pick up their eight-figure player options for 2015-16.
In fact, this desire has even been communicated to prospects in the Circle City for an interview.
"They put a lot of their focus on the fact that they're trying to get smaller and faster," Turner said, via Buckner.
This draft class is littered with mobile, versatile bigs. Turner, Kaminsky and Lyles could all add some shooting prowess to this frontcourt. But if the Pacers decide to get smaller by deploying Paul George at power forward, don't rule out Indiana targeting an athletic wing like Booker, Dekker or Oubre or a playmaking point guard like Cameron Payne.
12. Utah Jazz: Stretch Big
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The Utah Jazz are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the 2016 playoff field.
Once rim-protecting powerhouse Rudy Gobert moved into the starting lineup after the All-Star break, the Jazz started loudly hinting at their bright future. No one had a stingier defense beyond that point, and only six clubs had more victories than Utah's 19.
For as young as this roster is, it should have more gaps than it does. But if Dante Exum or Trey Burke can stabilize the point guard position, this team could be making postseason noise sooner rather than later. That should lead to a relatively stress-free experience on draft night.
"They have players they like at all five positions and that gives them flexibility to draft for talent instead of need," wrote ESPN.com's Chad Ford.
But Utah's frontcourt looks like it could use another body, particularly one that brings along some floor-stretching ability. Both Gobert and Derrick Favors do their best work at the rim, and Trevor Booker has only a non-guaranteed year left on his deal.
The Jazz should have the chance to land a rangy big man. Turner, Kaminsky, Dekker and Lyles could all be on the board when Utah makes its pick. Even a project like Kevon Looney might be an option, if the Jazz see some potential to develop his shooting touch and face-up game.
13. Phoenix Suns: Well-Rounded Small Forward
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The Phoenix Suns are stuck in that danger zone known as the NBA's middle.
Since being bounced from the 2010 Western Conference Finals, the Suns have considerably regressed—but not to the point of bottoming out. They have a .470 winning percentage over the past five seasons, a mark that yields neither a playoff berth nor a top-level draft choice.
There is some promise in the desert, though it's still hard to tell what it will ultimately produce. The Suns could have their backcourt of the future in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, provided they retain the latter in restricted free agency. Alex Len is starting to make his mark as a solid center, and Markieff Morris keeps pushing his numbers in the right direction.
But the Suns are still searching for an answer at small forward. Gerald Green is slated for unrestricted free agency. P.J. Tucker has yet to post an above-average PER. T.J. Warren had some nice moments as a rookie, but he's an unproven commodity and may never be a long-distance threat. Reggie Bullock didn't average double-digit minutes in either of his first two seasons.
If Phoenix feels good about its current core, it might favor an upperclassman like Dekker. If the Suns want to swing for the fences in hopes of finding a star, Oubre could be too intriguing to pass up. Booker might split the difference as his shooting will almost certainly transition to this level, and the 18-year-old has plenty of time to improve the rest of his game.
Once the franchise figures out whether it's building for the future or chasing something in the present, its draft motives will get a lot clearer.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Superstar Insurance
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are a lottery team by title only. There's no way they would have even sniffed a draft position this high had Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka not missed a combined 88 games due to injury this season.
When healthy, OKC is on a short list of title contenders. But the team still has a few small needs.
The Thunder need depth behind their stars. Not only would that add some immediate relief in terms of bench production, it might also offer (a tiny bit of) protection should OKC lose Durant to free agency in 2016 or Westbrook the following year.
Small forward might be easiest to address if Oubre or Dekker haven't been claimed yet. But the Thunder could see a greater impact by targeting a point guard, which they might already be doing.
"There's been a lot of buzz among rival GMs that the Thunder promised Cameron Payne they'd take him at 14," Ford wrote. "I don't know how much of that is smoke, but he is a great fit at 14 and talent wise he may be the best pure point guard in the draft."
As a "pure" point guard, Payne could be the type of table-setter that D.J. Augustin isn't (career 5.9 assists per 36 minutes). Someone who simply utilizes the top-shelf scoring options OKC has can pile up a ton of production. Payne can also serve as a spot-up shooter or create his own looks off the bounce.
This is probably too high to take another point guard like Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant. And it seems too low to land Booker, who would provide the 3-and-D punch the shooting guard position lacks. But it feels like the right spot to grab Payne and address the biggest need on a team that doesn't have many.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Contract information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
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