3-Step Plan for Houston Rockets to Return to the Playoffs in 2015-16
The Houston Rockets got to the Western Conference Finals this year—a level of success which surpassed expectations coming into the season. But as they assess their offseason, they can’t skip to that point and figure out how to get further. First, they just need to get back to the playoffs.
This is, after all, the highly competitive Western Conference. Houston grabbed the No. 2 seed with 56 wins, but that’s just one more than the sixth-place San Antonio Spurs.
The New Orleans Pelicans are on the rise with the fresh hiring of Alvin Gentry, who designed the Golden State Warriors’ No. 2 offense. They have Anthony Davis emerging as a contender for “best player in the world.”
The Oklahoma City Thunder will have Kevin Durant back, which will bring them back to the forefront of the conference.
Ergo, the difference between the No. 2 seed and missing the playoffs entirely is amazingly small.
To get back to the postseason first, then to the Finals, the Rockets will need to get better. But with all of that qualification, they’re not starting from scratch. They need adjustments, not an overhaul. With three steps, they can improve and position themselves to win it all in 2015-16.
Add a Second Playmaker
Of paramount importance is that the Houston Rockets add a second playmaker. As I mentioned previously, the degree of responsibility on James Harden to carry the offense is overwhelming. To save you the click, I’m just going to repost this chart:
(Note: The specifics of how these numbers were determined are complicated. I obtained the points by assist from the NBA.com, as linked. The unassisted field goal points, however, required more than one click. For the players who weren’t traded I used the “Shooting” profile at Basketball-Reference.com, subtracting the assisted field goals from total field goals to get the unassisted field goals. Here’s Harden’s as an example. For the midseason acquisitions, I had to separate out the Houston field goals, so I used the Event Finder. Here is Smith’s as an example.)
There are essentially three ways a player can generate offense: unassisted field goals, assists and getting to the free-throw line. The chart shows how many points per game each player produced for the Rockets last season (excluding players no longer with the team).
The degree to which Harden’s bar towers over everyone else’s is a big indication of how much the offense depends on him. And, while that’s a great argument for MVP, it’s also a big reason they were ultimately defeated in the playoffs.
When a team relies on one player that much, a great defensive opponent can stop him in the playoffs. And, while the great player might still have great games, the other team just has to get the best of him four times to win the series, as the Warriors did.
Point blank: The Rockets need another shot creator. And, it’s not just me. Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle reports:
"But Harden also would like to see the Rockets add another playmaker to take some of that responsibility out of his hands. Heading into an offseason in which the Rockets are more likely to tweak than overhaul their roster, Harden said he'd share his suggestion for general manager Daryl Morey's shopping list.
"That's one of the conversations me and Daryl are going to have, (and) the coaches," Harden said. "That's one of the pieces to add, but that's later conversations. We'll be all right. We're very confident in the group we have. This summer we have to work hard and be ready for next year."
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Whether it's targeting someone in the mold of George Hill via trade, landing someone like Jerian Grant via the draft or both, the Rockets need to add a point guard who can generate offense for himself and others.
Minimize Turnover
The Rockets need to make a move to acquire a second playmaker, but in doing so they must minimize player movement as much as possible.
Per Feigen, star center Dwight Howard would like to see the team stick together:
"This group didn't really play together (on the same team) all season long. I think next season that trust will really be there, knowing if we trust each other we can really get far. I think that's the biggest area offensively - continue to move the ball, continue to play with pace, just have confidence with each other. If we tweak those things, we'll be fine.
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Much of the Rockets’ season lacked continuity. As Feigen notes, only five of the players presently on the roster were there for the 2014 playoffs: Patrick Beverley, Harden, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Howard. And, to really put things in perspective, a look at game logs reveals those five were suited up at the same time for just the first two games of this season.
While that makes what the team did accomplish this year all the more impressive, there’s no reason to unnecessarily repeat that turbulence.
Some players will have to be traded to acquire the aforementioned playmaker, and the Rockets will have a number of decisions to make.
Jason Terry, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith are unrestricted free agents. K.J. McDaniels and Patrick Beverley are restricted free agents. Also, the Rockets have a team option for Kostas Papanikolaou for $4.7 million.
What Houston does will probably depend on what it can do, i.e., what players are available for trade and what those potential trading partners’ needs might be. Right now, there’s just too much unknown to responsibly discuss much. But it might require some aggressive tactics from general manager Daryl Morey.
Of course, asking Morey to be aggressive is like asking Harden to grow a beard.
Offensive Assistant
Finally, Houston needs to look toward signing an offensive assistant. As the head coach of the Golden State Warriors this year, Steve Kerr thrived by allowing his assistant coaches to thrive. Alvin Gentry ran the offense, and Ron Adams took care of the defense.
The Rockets added J.B. Bickerstaff to coach the defense last year, and that worked out amazingly well. Now, they need to find someone who can help do the same for the other end of the court.
Much is made of “Morey Ball” which is the philosophy of maximizing the most efficient parts of the court: the restricted area, the three-point line and the free-throw stripe. However, with the rise of analytics it’s becoming increasingly apparent that how open a shooter is can be almost as important as where he is shooting from. (Seth Partnow from Nylon Calculus has a fantastic discussion on the topic.)
Using the data from NBA.com, I combined the threes attempted with the closest defender between four and six feet and over six feet to determine the total number of uncontested shots. Then I compared that with the total number of threes taken to determine what percentage of the time each team is open from deep on their attempts.
The Rockets take a massive number of shots from deep, so by default, they’re taking more uncontested attempts than anyone. But as the chart shows, the rate at which they produce open threes is only average.
The horizontal axis shows the open attempts per game, and the vertical axis shows what percentage of their three-point attempts are open shots. Hover over the dots to reveal teams and numbers. While you can see Houston sticking out on the far right end of the chart, you can also see that their rate is only average.
This is amplified when you factor in Harden’s impact on the offense. A large number of the Rockets’ open threes occur because of his drive-and-kick abilities. As evidence of this, look first at the shot chart when he’s on the court, provided by the media version of NBA.com/Stats:
And, now when he’s off it:
The Rockets don’t just need a shot creator outside of Harden; they need an offensive system other than Harden. More ball movement, screens and purposeful action away from the ball would do a lot to get them going in that direction. Hiring the right offensive coordinator could set that transition into motion.
That just a few simple changes could set the team on the path to hanging their first banner since 1995 shows how close Houston is. But that so many teams are just as close shows how much Houston needs to be aggressive in making the aforementioned changes. It could be the difference between finishing ninth in the West and winning it all.
Stats for this article came from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com and the media version of NBA.com.
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