Knicks Can Land Franchise Building Block with No. 4 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
A lottery-night slide, disheartening though it remains, won't decisively prevent the New York Knicks from landing a franchise building block in the NBA's June 25 draft.
Heartsick sighs and exasperated facial expressions filled the Big Apple when the Knicks, who had the second-best chance at landing the No. 1 pick, slipped to fourth in the draft order. Finishing in the top three wasn't just a preference; it was something they were counting on.
Forfeiting that perceived necessity has incited a ripple effect, testing both the Knicks' rebuilding savvy and willingness to roll with the punches, however seemingly devastating.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports expects team president Phil Jackson to aggressively shop the pick, a sentiment reinforced by general manager Steve Mills' post-lottery candor.
"We have a lot of things that are on the table at this point," he said, per NJ.com's Nick Powell. "We still have [trade] exceptions that we can use between now and the draft, so we're talking to teams about a lot of different things, so we're open to looking at different opportunities to continue to improve our team."
Indeed, the Knicks' next course of action has been dissected from every imaginable position. And yet, a prevailing focus on whether they'll even retain their selection ignores one salient point: They still have a chance to draft the transcendent talent they need.
Draft-Day Surprises
Dropping to fourth isn't a huge issue on paper. The Knicks finished with the NBA's second-worst record, so it's a matter of two measly spots.
No big deal.
But the interest in snaring a top-three pick has nothing to do with the order itself. It's a matter of talent.
Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell and Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns are topping draft boards everywhere—including that of Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman:
Falling to fourth could bilk New York of a shot at all three, each of whom not only boasts a superstar ceiling, but addresses the Knicks' two biggest needs: point guard and center.
Emphasis on could.
Although the Minnesota Timberwolves are a lock to go big at No. 1, the Los Angeles Lakers (No. 2) and Philadelphia 76ers (No. 3) are being portrayed as wild cards.
Point guard was statistically the Lakers' worst position this past season, according to 82games.com. Rather than banking on Jordan Clarkson being their floor general of the future, they could select a point man at No. 2. If they do that, Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding believes they'll go with Emmanuel Mudiay, not Russell.
In that scenario, the Sixers could elect to fill their gaping hole at point guard or take whomever they deem the best player in Okafor and Towns and worry about the fit later. Either way, the Knicks would still be left to take one of the draft's top-three prizes.
Should both the Timberwolves and Lakers go big, the Sixers are guaranteed to nab a point guard. While Russell is the popular pick, general manager Sam Hinkie is unpredictable, and the apparent gap between Russell and Mudiay isn't enough to make the choice a no-brainer.
If the Sixers decide to invest in Mudiay's John Wall-esque court vision and dribble penetration, the Knicks would be free to snag Russell, whom Jackson called a "great prospect" in February, per Northeast Ohio Media Group's Doug Lesmerises.
Irrespective of how the top three selections play out, the Knicks are at the mercy of the Timberwolves, Lakers and Sixers. But that, while not ideal, doesn't necessarily mean all three of Okafor, Russell and Towns are out of reach.
Talented Field
Fortunately for the Knicks, they're not only dependent on the luck that eluded them at the lottery.
Fourth isn't the most admirable position to be in by any means. Players are often selected outside the top three with the expectation they'll be productive starters or serviceable role players, not superstar foundations upon which teams like the Knicks can build.
But that's also true of No. 1 picks sometimes. For all the pomp and promise embedded in ever-extensive scouting reports, the NBA draft is, at its pith, a crapshoot.
Future stars do not discriminate. They could be anywhere, drafted by anyone. And there is enough talent across the board for the Knicks to hope they grab the first patented superstar at No. 4 since the Oklahoma City Thunder (then Seattle Supersonics) selected Russell Westbrook in 2008.
Emmanuel Mudiay
Like the Lakers, point guard was statistically speaking the Knicks' worst position during the regular season, according to 82games.com. Langston Galloway gives them a legitimate prospect to evaluate moving forward, but it helps to have options at the league's deepest slot.
Assuming Russell is off the board, the Knicks can turn to Mudiay. Though his shaky jumper and ball-dominant stylings—he enjoyed a usage rate north of 29 in China last season, per RealGM—make him an iffy fit alongside Carmelo Anthony and within the triangle offense, talent belies playing styles.
And Mudiay is nothing if not super talented.
Comparisons to Wall aren't just sensible; they're spot on. Mudiay is a monster in transition and adds speed to what was the third-slowest team for 2014-15. He knows how to use his angles in one-on-one situations, and so long as he's flanked by running mates, his head is never down.
As more of a pass-first point guard, he has the chops to exist alongside the equally ball-dominant Anthony. Driving and kicking is second nature to him, and Anthony has morphed into a lethal spot-up shooter over the last three seasons. The two could do some damage on the offensive end if the Knicks run smaller lineups that invite more dribble penetration.
At 6'5", Mudiay can also defend either guard position, a godsend for the NBA's third-worst points-prevention entity. He forces turnovers in volume, uses his superior speed to eliminate strong-side drives and allows New York to hide porous perimeter defenders like Tim Hardaway Jr. on weaker wings.
Mudiay, then, has the two-way potential to actualize those John Wall analogies. And, as the Washington Wizards will tell you, that's a good thing.
Justise Winslow
Justise Winslow's ceiling can help the Knicks forget all about losing the lottery.
The 19-year-old flashed preeminent two-way promise during his only season at Duke. His skill set is already being likened to James Harden—not just as a scorer, but playmaker.
Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal has more:
"During his three seasons with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Harden improved from 2.8 to 2.9 to 4.2 assists per 36 minutes. He just wasn't that featured offensive option yet, and during his minutes, he had to look for his own shot first and foremost.
That's the exact type of player Justise Winslow is right now, even though he's a capable distributor. The 19-year-old Duke product excels from the perimeter and loves slashing to the hoop, and the crafty nature of his body control allows him to spend lots of time at the stripe (5.5 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes as a freshman).
"
Pinning Winslow to Harden's game might even be unfair...in a good way.
Aside from already being accustomed to working off the ball and draining threes with obnoxiously high frequency (41.8 percent at Duke), much of his claim to draft-board fame can be traced to his defense.
Winslow has the speed and size (6'6") to defend point guards, shooting guards and small forwards and, unlike most wings, actively looks to block shots in transition or off the dribble.
Slotting him at the 3 next to Anthony makes too much sense. He allows the aging superstar to man the lesser of two scorers at small forward and power forward, and his three-point stroke will let him capitalize on passes from the elbow, a prerequisite for any Anthony sidekick.
That ability to make an impact as an orbiting shooter or even just a defender arguably makes him a better option than someone like Mudiay. Learning curves are steeper at point guard, and as NBA writer Jim Cavan points out, Winslow's ancillary devices make him more of a sure thing:
Put in even simpler terms: The Knicks, at No. 4, will have an opportunity to snatch someone with superstar clout—who could, on some level, rival the most recent MVP runner-up.
More Options Still
New York's search for a franchise building block outside the top three spots doesn't end with Mudiay and Winslow.
Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein is a rim-protecting prince. He saw more playing time than Towns last season and has a Tyson Chandler-meets-DeAndre Jordan rebounding and shot-blocking look to his game.
Indiana Pacers team president Larry Bird went as far as calling him a nine-figure talent, per the Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner:
Kristaps Porzingis out of Latvia is another name to consider. He doesn't block a ton of shots for someone who stands at 7'1", but his inside-out offensive repertoire and under-the-table explosion have him being heralded as a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki, a future Hall of Famer and championship cornerstone.
So the Knicks have options. Lots of options. And while they're still not situated as high as they would like, those same options—from the draft-day surprises to prospects outside the top three—are harbingers of hope.
Fourth, in this case, is a good place to be.
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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