Oklahoma City Thunder Should Trade No. 14 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a good spot entering the June 25 NBA draft. The team has a solid roster, limited needs and a selection inside the lottery. General manager Sam Presti should take advantage of this rare opportunity by trading up to secure one of this year's top prospects.
Given the depth in this year's draft, the Thunder could likely stay at No. 14 and still end up with a decent rotational player. However, with Kevin Durant an unrestricted free agent next summer and the team coming off a disappointing result this season, there's a greater sense of urgency going into the 2015-16 campaign, and this pick is OKC's latest asset.
After the lottery, Presti acknowledged the draft's depth, as well as hinted at the possibility of making a move, per DailyThunder.com's Royce Young:
"I think this particular draft has a significant amount of depth. I think it’s pretty equally distributed and as the days turn into weeks and we get toward the day of the draft, I think there’s going to be an increased interest in the middle of this draft in particular. It would be really hard to speculate just based on what’s going to happen in front of us and what kind of player could potentially be there. And that’s also making the assumption that we keep the draft pick and select there, that we don’t move back or use the draft choice in another way.
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Other than re-signing center Enes Kanter, the Thunder's biggest need this offseason is a small forward to back up Durant, an area the team could have improved even before KD's tumultuous, injury-riddled campaign.
Fortunately, this is a good year to be looking at the position. In his latest mock draft, Bleacher Report's own Jonathan Wasserman has eight small forwards going in the first round, starting with Duke's Justise Winslow at No. 7 overall.
Presti spent the latter part of this season aggressively building the roster with trades for Kanter and Dion Waiters in an attempt to win now. A move into the top 10 would be the latest example of Presti's willingness to swing for the fences.
The Cost To Move Up
Of the many avenues the Thunder could go in, Presti realizes that moving up will be the trickiest, per Young.
"I think history shows it’s not an easy proposition to move up into the lottery period. When you get to the place where we’re currently anchored, to penetrate into the top 10, it becomes a little more challenging. It always comes down when making a transactions with another team is finding how to partner so that you have aligned interests with them. That’s what the next several weeks will be about is having those conversations. I could probably write your stories for you guys already, because we’ll have conversations with teams that are in front of us, we’ll have conversations with teams that are behind us, and we’ll probably have conversations with teams that aren’t even in the draft, without picks. So that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody, that’s part of the job at this point. It’s part of the thorough and rigorous process, but certainly moving up is a different formula than moving out or moving back.
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In the past two drafts, teams moving up needed to package picks to do so. Last year, the Chicago Bulls shipped Jusuf Nurkic (16th pick), Gary Harris (19th) and a 2015 second-rounder to the Denver Nuggets in exchange for Doug McDermott (11th). The year before, the Utah Jazz sent Shabazz Muhammad (14th) and Gorgui Dieng (21st) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Trey Burke (ninth).
Unfortunately, the Thunder are lacking in this particular area. The team's 2016 first-round pick, initially sent to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Dion Waiters trade, now belongs to the Philadelphia 76ers from Denver for JaVale McGee. OKC also owes its 2018 first-round selection to the Utah Jazz as part of a three-way deal that brought Kanter to town.
Due to the NBA's Stepien Rule, a team cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years. That means Oklahoma City can't offer a future first-round pick before 2020. Even for a rebuilding team like the Nuggets, cashing in a pick from a perennial championship contender five years from now isn't very tantalizing.
That means Presti would have to dig into his treasure chest of young talent in order to move up.
Seldom-used prospects Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones are the most likely trade bait but unlikely to command a big return. Lamb is a career 34.8 percent three-point shooter, while Jones is a 6'11" forward who could play multiple positions. Both have struggled with consistency throughout their careers but are still young (22 and 23, respectively) and could be salvageable in the right hands.
Additionally, Lamb ($3 million) and Jones ($2 million) are cheap reclamation projects who would be under the acquiring team's control as restricted free agents next summer.
Presti could also draw from his depth in the frontcourt and at shooting guard to address other areas. Andre Roberson is an underrated perimeter defender who held opponents to 39.8 percent shooting, including 31 percent from three, per NBA.com. Dion Waiters finished 2014-15 strong, averaging 16.9 points in April, while rookie Mitch McGary contributed 6.3 points and 5.2 boards in 15.2 minutes per game.
Would Waiters and No. 14 be enough to convince the Nuggets to move down seven spots? Could the Thunder tempt the Charlotte Hornets at No. 9 with a package of Lamb, Jones, Nos. 14 and No. 48? Would the Miami Heat, at No. 10, be willing to swap spots if it meant netting McGary in return?
The Targets
If the Thunder can get into the 7-10 range, two names that make sense are Winslow and Arizona's Stanley Johnson.
Winslow is arguably the draft's best small forward and could go as high as the New York Knicks at No. 4. ESPN.com's Chad Ford tweeted after the lottery that the Knicks are big on the Duke freshman, who has drawn comparisons to Houston Rockets star James Harden.
The 19-year-old averaged 12.6 points and 6.5 rebounds in 29.1 minutes per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from behind the arc during his lone season in Durham, per Sports-Reference.com.
If he falls outside of the top five, trading up to secure a potential Harden clone would be a huge move for a Thunder team still feeling the effects of trading The Beard in 2012. Winslow could play a role similar to the one Harden played in OKC, operating as the team's scoring attack off the bench and occasionally running with the first unit.
As for Johnson, he wasted little time declaring himself "the best player in the draft" and believes OKC has developed a fondness for him, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman:
"They (OKC) really like me. They’ve been watching me since I was in high school. I remember seeing their scout at my practices all the time when I was at Arizona and they know a lot about me. I got coached under Billy Donovan already (at the FIBA Americas U18 ) so he knows a lot about me as well, which makes everything easy. So I think they’re very familiar with who I am and what I do.
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At 6'7", 245 pounds with a 6'11" wingspan, Johnson has the tools to be a fine two-way player. Wasserman once described Johnson, who turns 19 on May 29, as "a mix between Kawhi Leonard and a young Ron Artest." He averaged 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three as a freshman.
Oklahoma City has plenty of perimeter players who excel at one end of the court, but none who can do both. Meanwhile, Johnson considers his ability to defend multiple positions one of his biggest strengths, per Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus:
"In today’s day and age, it’s about defensive versatility. How many people you can guard and how well you can do it? I can guard fours. I can guard Draymond Green. I can guard Kawhi Leonard. I can guard Mike Conley — I can stay with him at least.
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With Durant coming off multiple foot surgeries and Russell Westbrook leading the league in usage rate, the Thunder need someone like Winslow or Johnson who can help take pressure off OKC's dynamic duo. While giving up a promising talent like Waiters or McGary is never easy, the chance to walk away with one of the best players in the draft makes it all worth it.
The Reasoning
The last time the Thunder had a lottery pick was in 2013, when they used the No. 12 selection on center Steven Adams as part of the Harden trade. Prior to that, the club hadn't selected in the top half of the draft on its own merit since taking Harden third overall in 2009.
In other words, Oklahoma City hasn't been in this position often. With Durant a free agent next summer and Westbrook hitting the open market the year after, there's a chance the Thunder's championship window could be closing for the foreseeable future.
As long as the team stays in contention, it will have plenty of opportunities to find role players late in the draft as it's done in past years. When's the next time it will be able to leave with an elite prospect while Durant and Westbrook are still in a Thunder uniform?
In the past, we've seen teams take a shot at acquiring rookies they wouldn't otherwise have a chance at drafting in an effort to stay on top. In 2011, the San Antonio Spurs traded veteran George Hill for Leonard, who fell to the Indiana Pacers at No. 15 overall. Four years later, Leonard is set to earn a max contract as the future face of the franchise, and the Spurs haven't looked back since.
In agreeing to trade future picks for the likes of Waiters and Kanter, Presti was willing to mortgage the future to stay competitive. Now, the team has a golden opportunity to potentially add the next Harden or the next Leonard, and it can't afford to pass it up.
Since establishing themselves as one of the NBA's elite in 2010, the Oklahoma City Thunder haven't spent much time worrying about lottery picks. That's why it is important that the team continues to aggressively build a championship roster by moving up for one of this year's best rookies.
With the future uncertain, general manager Sam Presti needs to do whatever it takes to maximize the team's potential in the present.
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