L.A. Clippers Must Fix Their Margins, Not Blow Up Their Core
The Los Angeles Clippers got eliminated from the playoffs in just about the most heartbreaking way a team can. Now, the hot takes are shooting off like rockets.
The Clippers are choke artists! They should blow it up! Trade Blake Griffin! Trade Chris Paul! Let DeAndre Jordan walk in free agency! The Clippers can't win without Donald Sterling!
OK, so maybe no one is saying that last one, but the rest are, somehow, out in the public domain. It's as if when the Clippers blew a 3-1 lead to the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Semifinals, they did it because Paul crumbled into nothingness or because Griffin neglected to play up to his abilities. But even the people making those crazed statements know that's not the case.
Griffin averaged 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists in the postseason, only the second player ever to average 24, 12 and six for a beyond-the-first-round playoff run—the only other, of course, was Oscar Robertson in 1962-63.
Even when Paul was at his worst against Houston, like through stretches of Game 7 (when he didn't rack up an assist until the second quarter was almost over), he finished with dominant lines. In that final contest against the Rockets, he put up 26 points, 10 assists and four steals.
Jordan is still the backbone of the defense, arguably the most important player on the team, considering how the Clippers performed with Griffin out this year and Paul out last year. If the free-agent-to-be walks this summer, the Clips are in serious trouble. L.A. knows he's a priority, as Doc Rivers immediately stated upon the Clips' elimination.
"Can you tamper with your own guy?" Rivers joked about Jordan after Game 7 vs. Houston, via Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times. "If that's true, I want to go tamper right now."
Now, they need ensure his return.
The Clippers core is fine. On offense. On defense. What the team needs is reinforcement on the margins.
Those who claim, "Blow it all up!" aren't taking into account a poor cap situation. Even if Jordan walks in free agency, L.A. doesn't have the cap room to go out and sign a major player. It still has Griffin and Paul on max contracts with Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes and rookies returning.
Even though those Crawford and Barnes contracts aren't fully guaranteed, L.A. has to decide by July 1 if it's keeping those players for 2015-16. That means it would have to free up space before Jordan officially hits free agency, before it knows his decision for next year. That's quite a risk, and it's certainly not the prudent one to take, especially since it would be ignoring just how dominant this top four was throughout the year.
Look at the regular season. Look at the postseason. All the numbers bear it out.
L.A.'s starting five outscored opponents by a ridiculous 17.7 points per 100 possessions during the regular season while playing far more minutes than any other five-man unit in the league.
People questioned the Clippers defense during the first 82 games of the year, but especially after a surge during the second half of the season, the D yielded far more good than bad in the starting unit. A 100.0 defensive efficiency for that lineup was the exact same number as the one that belonged to the Washington Wizards, who finished fifth in the NBA in that stat.
The playoffs told a less-dominant, but still positive story about the starters, who outscored the San Antonio Spurs and Rockets by 4.4 points per 100 during the playoffs.
The Clippers core can play. And when we say core, it's not necessarily just Paul, Griffin and Jordan. It's more than that.
Redick is essential for off-ball consistency. We always hear about the importance of ball movement, but the Clippers can't get to their dominant offensive level without implementing player movement, as well. Redick is the guy who makes that possible. He's a coach's dream, especially within a Doc Rivers offense which has historically been most effective with guys like Redick and Ray Allen opening up the floor.
It seems reactionary to ignore all of this after a loss that was as disappointing as any in a wretched franchise history, but one that was more predicated on three bad losses than an entire season of flaws.
We know why the Clippers lost to Houston.
Whether you think they choked or they got tight (something Griffin and Rivers, amongst others, admitted) or they didn't deserve it or whatever hot takes are out there, they undoubtedly got tired, too.
Redick, Paul and Griffin all averaged more than 37 minutes a night during the postseason. And as ESPN's Ramona Shelburne noted on Zach Lowe's podcast at Grantland on Monday, Griffin said after the series that this was the most tired he had ever been.
We tend to analyze teams in such polarizing ways.
They choked, and that's it! If they got tight, there's no other explanation for their failures!
But real life has more nuance than that. We can say the Clippers got tight when it mattered while also believing that their lack of depth did them in come the final three games of the Rockets series. And if we think depth was ultimately the problem, then why break up the core?
If Jordan wants to return, the Clippers are going to survive—as long as you have faith in Rivers' upper-management moves (though there's obviously no evidence which would lead you to believe that).
They're only a few crafty transactions away from becoming one of the two or three top teams to contend for the title. Heck, a reasonable person could argue they were that this year, and their seventh through 10th men were probably the worst of any of the 16 playoff teams. Heck, if L.A. had won just a single of those final three games against Houston, this conversation doesn't even exist.
As long as the starters return, the Clippers should contend for another title. The question is if they can actually find value in those minimum and near-minimum deals on the periphery.
Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.
All quotes obtained firsthand. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of May 20 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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