2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for New England Patriots Stars
Fantasy football owners sit glued to news feeds as each Deflategate update rearranges the outlook for the New England Patriots’ stars. Julian Edelman, LeGarrette Blount and Rob Gronkowski owners still don’t know if Tom Brady will be under center for the 2015 season opener.
As the debate over the pounds per square inch of air pressure inside a laced-up pigskin stumbles onward, I wonder if I’m stuck in an insane asylum and the medication is wearing off.
Blink your eyelids twice if you understand and agree.
The Patriots enjoyed a resurgence on offense en route to a fourth Super Bowl title in 2014, with or without properly inflated footballs. Head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels guided Brady and company to a fourth-place finish in points scored (11th in yards). The offense finished seventh overall when adjusted for standard fantasy scoring.
Belichick must be satisfied with the results, because he didn’t make a fantasy-relevant splash in the draft or free agency as the Patriots de facto general manager.
Apart from the outcome of the Deflategate debacle, fantasy owners can expect more of the same from the Patriots in 2015.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 10
Scott Chandler, TE
The Patriots signed this 6’7”, 260-pound fantasy underachiever away from the Buffalo Bills in March. He’ll compete with Tim Wright for the honor of carrying Rob Gronkowski’s shoulder pads off the practice field.
Brandon Bolden, RB
Bolden looks to be buried on the depth chart even though Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen cleared up a couple of spaces. The fifth running back position should be his, with the potential to rise up as LeGarrette Blount’s handcuff in training camp.
Tim Wright, TE
Wright is still Rob Gronkowski’s No. 1 backup, but Scott Chandler’s signing blurs that distinction. Follow Wright's performance in training camp to see who wins the No. 2 role.
Aaron Dobson, WR
New England invested a second-round pick in 2013 on the 6’3”, 210-pound prospect from Marshall, with meager returns. This is a make-or-break season for Dobson, who probably won’t be protected from free agency in 2016 if he fails to contribute at the fourth wide receiver position.
Travaris Cadet, RB
Cadet mostly lined up wide and released downfield in his three seasons with the New Orleans Saints, according to film study by ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss. The 2012 undrafted free agent from the Appalachian State Mountaineers impressed in his first preseason but was lost in the shuffle, according to comments on ESPN analyst Field Yates’ Twitter page.
Cadet isn’t built like a traditional passing-down back at 6’1”, 210 pounds, so he could see extended time in certain game plans. First, he’ll have to leapfrog James White on the depth chart and learn Josh McDaniels’ system.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
2 of 10
The Patriots might get to see what they have in Garoppolo a little earlier than they probably wanted, thanks to the Deflategate saga.
The NFL Players Association filed an appeal of the four-game suspension handed to Tom Brady by the league, which could result in a reduced sentence. Assuming the league won’t agree to give back all the games, the four-year starter for the Eastern Illinois Panthers will at least be under center for opening night.
The defending Super Bowl champions kick off the 2015 NFL season by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, Sept. 10. The Steelers finished 2014 ranked 27th in points against fantasy quarterbacks, surrendering 17.1 points per game, according to ESPN.com.
Garoppolo will get plenty of time to work with the first-team offense once the final verdict is levied, positioning himself as a great value pick in daily fantasy leagues for Week 1.
His fantasy value beyond the opener returns exclusively to a must-own in dynasty formats because the 2014 second-rounder will once again sport a headset on the sidelines once Brady is reinstated.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection (Week 1): 275 passing yards and two touchdowns.
James White, RB
3 of 10
White is the current favorite to assume Shane Vereen’s vacated change-of-pace position in the Patriots offense. The 2014 fourth-rounder out of Wisconsin saw limited opportunities buried in a crowded backfield throughout his rookie campaign.
He’ll have to hold back free-agent acquisition Travaris Cadet from New Orleans, but White holds the advantage with one season of work in New England’s system.
White could see some serviceable weeks as a fantasy performer if the situation calls for it. The problem is predicting when Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will choose to focus on lesser-known offensive weapons.
White isn’t draftable until he solidifies his hold on the No. 3 running back position. He could be a low-end dynasty stash with a good preseason.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 200 yards rushing and one touchdown, plus 20 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown.
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Danny Amendola, WR
4 of 10
New England advertised what a healthy Amendola could contribute to the offense during the 2014 postseason. The injury-troubled six-year veteran caught 11 passes for 137 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
The Patriots wanted to keep Amendola but at a discounted rate given his durability issues. The 29-year-old agreed, signing a restructured deal in March, according to ESPN’s Field Yates on Twitter:
"Source: Patriots WR Danny Amendola has restructured his deal. New base value is $12.75M over 3 years, he can still earn the full $15M though
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 12, 2015
"
Amendola explained why he restructured with New England as opposed to testing the market, as reported by Shalise Manza Young of the Boston Globe.
“This is home to me. I love playing for this team," he said. "It’s a great experience, and I’d like to prolong that as long as I can. It’s been fun. I love the group we have here, I love the work ethic everybody puts in every week, I love being here, so that’s why I chose to come back.”
Amendola is obviously valuable from Bill Belichick’s perspective, but the Patriots' willingness to keep him shouldn’t translate into elevated fantasy value.
Take him late in the draft as a reserve if you’re curious about his upside, but don’t hang onto him too long if he doesn’t reproduce his postseason success early in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 32 receptions for 400 yards and five touchdowns.
Jonas Gray, RB
5 of 10
Gray’s Week 11 explosion against the Indianapolis Colts for 201 yards and four touchdowns made headlines before he subsequently disappeared the rest of the season after a disciplinary run-in with Bill Belichick.
Gray’s return to third on the depth chart had as much to do with New England re-signing LeGarrette Blount as Gray's landing in Belichick’s doghouse. The 2012 undrafted free agent from Notre Dame is an inferior lead back to Blount and would have seen his playing time slip away regardless.
However, Gray is the favorite to anchor the Patriots running game in Week 1 with Blount suspended, per NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport:
"#Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount was suspended for the first game of the 2015 season for violating the NFL Policy for Substances of Abuse.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 7, 2015"
The three-year journeyman will face a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranked 13th in points allowed to fantasy running backs in 2014, according to ESPN.com. It’s not a tantalizing matchup given the quarterback is likely to be Jimmy Garoppolo, pending Tom Brady’s appeal of his Deflategate suspension.
Still, Gray could make a decent daily fantasy value play on opening night, ripping off 70 yards rushing and conceivably adding a touchdown.
Beyond that, his role will be as Blount’s handcuff. Gray might not even be worth keeping on standard rosters after Week 1.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 500 yards rushing and four touchdowns.
Brandon LaFell, WR
6 of 10
LaFell found in Tom Brady what he couldn’t with Cam Newton—or vice versa—logging his finest effort through five NFL seasons.
The Carolina Panthers’ third-round pick out of LSU in 2010 needed the change of scenery to become a relevant fantasy producer. LaFell’s 74 receptions for 953 yards and seven touchdowns all marked career highs. He tied for 21st in fantasy scoring among wide receivers with A.J. Green and Anquan Boldin (8.5 points per game).
New England must be confident in LaFell’s potential for another strong season since the Patriots didn’t draft a wide receiver despite the considerable depth at the position among rookies. Or maybe it’s because Bill Belichick became gun-shy after so many whiffs in late April, according to Oliver Thomas of 247Sports.
LaFell projects as a great value pick starting between the seventh and eighth rounds of a standard-sized draft. There’s no better testimonial than the Patriots' lack of action at wide receiver this offseason.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 80 receptions for 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.
Tom Brady, QB
7 of 10
Although Brady’s appeal is still forthcoming, the Patriots will accept the terms of the league’s punishment without a legal fight, according to owner Robert Kraft, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com. The NFL docked two draft picks and $1 million, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter:
"Filed to ESPN: Tom Brady suspended four games, Pats lose 1st round pick in 2016 and a 4th in 2017, and team fined $1 million, per source:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 11, 2015
"
The leverage is a reduced suspension for Brady when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell presides over those hearings. Pundits—like 93.7 WEEI’s Mike Petraglia—expect Goodell to rule favorably in the Brady case from New England’s standpoint.
The NFLPA is requesting Goodell recuse himself, but my 18-month-old has more teeth than this union, so don’t count on it.
If the Super Bowl XLIX MVP sits out more than the season opener, Kraft will have to consider his negotiations a failure. Losing the cash and draft picks are hefty damages if Brady’s four-game suspension can’t be reduced at least 75 percent.
Brady’s draft stock dropped slightly with the news, but the 15-year veteran still deserves a top-10 look among quarterbacks.
His passing total dipped 234 yards (4,109) last season from 2013, but touchdowns were up by eight (33 total in 2014). New England employed a high-percentage approach to the passing game, limiting Brady’s yards per completion to 11.0, the second-lowest of his 12 complete seasons. YPC dropped further to 9.9 in the playoffs.
The All-Pro notched his fifth-best passer rating as a result (97.4), giving up just nine interceptions. Pro Football Focus graded Brady fourth among quarterbacks.
Fantasy owners can expect the Patriots to play conservatively in the passing game again in 2015, with Brady achieving similar results once he’s reinstated.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 3,850 passing yards for 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Julian Edelman, WR
8 of 10
Edelman fully assumed the role in New England that Wes Welker abandoned when he left for the Denver Broncos in 2013. The six-year veteran led the Patriots with 92 receptions in 14 games, good for seventh overall among wide receivers.
The converted college quarterback finished 27th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers.
Unfortunately, Edelman also embodied a darker side of Welker’s game, appearing to suffer a head injury in Super Bowl XLIX. The 29-year-old dodged the concussion question when asked by the New York Times’ Ken Belson two weeks later: “Due to our team policy, I can’t discuss that. I went through all the protocols.”
One concussion can make a player more susceptible to another in the future, a problematic reality for the 5’10”, 200-pound possession receiver who makes a living across the middle.
Fantasy owners are drafting Edelman just outside the top 20 overall in standard leagues. This a bit high given his track record and projections, outside the points-per-reception format, of course.
If you’re in a PPR league, draft Edelman as a solid WR1 in the second round. You shouldn’t take him before the third round in standard leagues, which drops him to WR2 status.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 receptions for 1,010 yards and five touchdowns.
LeGarrette Blount, RB
9 of 10
The news of Blount’s suspension for substance abuse violations dropped on the Patriots’ official website in early April: "LeGarrette Blount of the New England Patriots has been suspended without pay for the first game of the 2015 regular season for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. Blount is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games."
Bill Belichick had to know this was coming upon signing Blount in November after the Pittsburgh Steelers released him. If the head coach/general manager was concerned about Blount’s attitude or the missed time, he would have rectified it in the draft or free agency.
The Patriots didn’t make any major backfield acquisitions in either case.
Blount posted better numbers in five regular-season games with the Patriots (60 carries, 281 yards and three touchdowns) than he did in 11 with the Steelers (65, 266 and two). The five-year veteran added 47 attempts for 189 yards and three touchdowns in the postseason.
He is a lock for New England’s RB1 with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen out of the picture. Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray are purely backups who will only be fantasy-relevant on opening night while Blount sits out.
He is currently coming off the board at the start of the seventh round in 12-team standard leagues. Take Blount confidently in the fifth or sixth, especially if you spent earlier picks on other positions.
Either way, the relatively fresh 28-year-old will be a solid RB2 in 2015 for a bargain RB3 price.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 200 carries for 875 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Rob Gronkowski, TE
10 of 10
When Gronkowski plays a full season, there isn’t a better tight end in the league. It isn’t even close.
The fifth-year veteran topped all tight ends in fantasy scoring, averaging 11.5 points per game. His 1,124 receiving yards ranked 15th overall, and his 12 touchdowns tied for fourth, according to ESPN.com.
Gronkowski’s Pro Football Focus grade of 22.9 ranked behind only Le’Veon Bell (23.8) and Antonio Brown (23.4) at the non-QB skill positions. With Jimmy Graham traded to an inferior Seattle Seahawks offense this offseason, there isn’t another contender in the conversation for best fantasy tight end in 2015.
The debate is whether the injury-prone, 6’6”, 265-pound workhorse is worth a top-10 overall pick as projected (No. 7). Many fantasy experts believe he is, but there’s impending risk intertwined with Gronkowski’s immense value.
Unlike some premier running backs and wide receivers, there isn’t an obvious handcuff for Gronkowski owners to pinpoint to hedge a lofty first-round bet. New England just brought in Scott Chandler to compete with Tim Wright as Gronkowski’s receiving-tight end backup, but the two combined probably couldn’t match his production.
The All-Pro missed 16 games in 2012 and 2013, a devastating blow for fantasy owners who no doubt invested a high pick and probably didn’t have a serviceable backup to fill in.
If you’re sitting with a pick in the second half of the first round, consider taking a value running back like Matt Forte or obvious stud wide receivers like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, or reaching a bit on Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck ahead of Gronk. All of these players share Gronkowski’s top-tier potential without the elevated injury risks.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 80 receptions for 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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