5 Factors That Will Determine Memphis Grizzlies Series vs. Golden State Warriors

After breaking down the Golden State Warriors' scoring attack twice in a row, the Memphis Grizzlies hold a 2-1 Western Conference semifinals series edge and are halfway to eliminating a team that won 67 regular-season games.

The Grizzlies' defense took the league's best offensive team out of its comfort zone. They not only forced numerous turnovers, but also reduced chances for open shots.

While defensive dominance could key Memphis' march past the Warriors, that alone won't close the series.

Memphis must come through with some perimeter shooting. Even when struggling, the Warriors will hit some three-pointers, requiring a response from the Grizzlies' wings.

Additionally, eyes will follow Marc Gasol as the Grizzlies' best player enters overdrive offensively. He's taking a different tact from the regular season when his shots didn't fall.

Statistics are current through May 10 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.

Tom Firme is a Memphis Grizzlies featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TFirme.

Keeping Up the Defensive Grind

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Grizzlies have shaken the Warriors by tearing them apart defensively. 

Tony Allen is leading a rapacious turnover effort, grabbing 11 of Memphis' 36 steals in the series, including four in Game 3. 

Allen's thefts spark energy for the Grizzlies. According to SportVU, nine of his 11 created a numbers advantage in transition. 

Golden State's 45.3 percent field-goal clip may be 0.3 percent better than Memphis', but coughing up the ball negates that.

When they're not fueling their offense by forcing turnovers, the Grizzlies are cloaking ball-handlers. As SI.com's Rob Mahoney said, "Every dribble hand-off was met with expectant defenders. Every pick-and-roll stretched and strained first by the Grizzlies' bigs (who hedged to apply pressure and deny Curry angles, in particular) and then by the scrappy, recovering guards."

On the occasions when Warriors shooters found themselves open, they couldn't connect. Golden State is 31.3 percent from three-point range this series, 8.5 percent worse than their league-leading regular-season mark. They're 4-of-18 on "wide open" treys and 4-of-16 on "open" ones, per SportVU (h/t ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss).

Stephen Curry can scarcely find his rhythm. While scoring 21.7 points per game, he's hitting 39.7 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from downtown. After making 4-of-8 threes in Game 1, Curry has connected on 4-of-21 the past two.

The NBA's MVP looked deflated after missing a straightaway 28-footer midway through the third quarter of Game 3.

This moment symbolized a mental advantage created by the "grit 'n' grind" defense. CBSSports.com's Matt Moore tweeted Curry lacks confidence in his shot.

Memphis seems unlikely to stop swarming, and the Warriors are hard-pressed to overcome it.

The Grizzlies' Outside Shooting

By coming back late in Game 3, the Warriors showed they won't completely fall dead from downtown. Golden State went 6-of-8 from the field, making up for poor free-throw shooting as they closed the deficit from 19 to 4.

Fortunately, Courtney Lee hit a three to give the Grizzlies a seven-point cushion with 2:50 left.

As quoted by the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami, Steve Kerr remarked on Sunday the Warriors had "a little better rhythm" in that game, but still need to work on it.

If they improve and start hitting threes, the Grizzlies need adequate outside shooting to offset the attack. Memphis has hit 30.2 percent from long range, including 31.3 percent on Saturday. 

That becomes a problem when Golden State lands its bombs. As a reporter pointed out to Zach Randolph after Game 1, the Grizzlies shot only 5.4 percent worse than the Warriors, but were "trading twos for threes" as Golden State made 13 treys, 11 more than Memphis.

Without countering the Warriors' threes with some of their own, the Grizzlies would increase the burden on their defense, which didn't work in the series opener.

Marc Gasol's Drive

Marc Gasol's underwhelming second half of the regular season seems distant as he powers through the series.

He's averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds after dropping 21 and 15 in Game 3. ESPN.com's Marc Stein tweeted it was the most aggressive he'd seen the Spaniard play. Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger mentioned Gasol carried the team for a while.

Whereas he would have passed when he didn't have an ideal shot opportunity a few months ago, he stepped back and drained a jumper with 2:08 left, giving Memphis a six-point lead.

Gasol is getting to the free-throw line far more often than anyone else, hitting 89.3 percent of 28 attempts. He's forcing his way inside, sometimes taking multiple attempts at the rim on a possession.

While it might seem like he only found the necessary urgency in the postseason of his contract year, Gasol is simply recognizing the call to pour it on at a crucial juncture.

If Gasol continues finishing tough and reaching the charity stripe, he would help the Grizzlies complete a series victory.

Mike Conley's Body

Despite enduring numerous ailments during the regular season—playing through a left foot sprain in the first round against the Portland Trail Blazers and missing three games due to facial fractures suffered in a collision with C.J. McCollum in Game 3 against Portland—Mike Conley keeps pushing energetically.

Conley has overcome injuries to produce impressively, averaging 16.2 points per game on 50 percent shooting this postseason. He came back in Game 2 with 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting.

His 11 points on 3-of-10 from the field on Saturday were less remarkable. Conley finished the night with a shocking drive to lay it up and careen to the baseline in the final minute.

Fans must have wondered how he could have taken that after all his blows this year. 

In the third quarter, he had blood wiped off his left eyebrow after stitches popped.

The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery tweeted that Conley received IV treatment before practice on Sunday after cramping in both his games against the Warriors.

The 27-year-old will continue battling. If his health allows him to stay effective, the Grizzlies might get past the Warriors still without a loss this postseason when Conley plays.

Capitalizing on the Experience Edge

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

The Grizzlies hold a substantial experience advantage on the Warriors. Gasol, Randolph, Conley and Allen have played five postseasons and nine series together, compared with three and four, respectively, for Curry, Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes.

The Memphis Flyer's Kevin Lipe explained why the Warriors' time together seems diminutive, saying:

"

There's one thing all those comparisons to the '96 Bulls left out: By the 95-96 season, the Bulls had been in the playoffs every year since 1985 and won three championships. That's not a "COUNT THE RINGZ" argument, it's an argument about experience. That Bulls team had been in some serious playoff battles, gotten knocked around by the Detroit Pistons and had to learn to play their game through the torturous gauntlet that is the NBA postseason.

The Warriors have been in playoff battles, but not that many. They've played four series in three years. It's a world away from a ten year postseason run with three championships—the Warriors have played against the Nuggets, Spurs and Clippers. That's not to say that the Warriors can't win a championship this year; they absolutely can. But they don't have the experience playing through these kinds of series together, getting beaten up and figuring out how to advance anyway.

"

The Grizzlies have been tested, and their resolve is showing in these playoffs. That was seen when they closed out the Blazers after Conley's facial fractures. They responded appropriately after Gasol fouled out with a six-point lead in the final two minutes on Saturday by putting Golden State away.

Memphis is aware of its greater wealth in experience. Conley told Tillery, "Our experience helps us in understanding the moment and understanding each possession. We've been in a lot of situations and a lot of series. Teams have come back and beat us. We've been on the other end of it. No lead is safe...Nobody was celebrating (after Game 3 against the Warriors)."

The core's playoff time together aids their response to the Warriors' adjustments in later stages of the series. Learning from prior situations will allow the Grizzlies to stay tight defensively and find timely shots.