Dallas Keuchel Is the AL Cy Young Award Front-Runner so Far This Season

We’re a month into the 2015 MLB regular season, and a handful of pitchers are off to scorchingly hot starts. In the National League, Zack Greinke and the rejuvenated Matt Harvey are both 5-0, while the indefatigable Bartolo Colon—currently 41 years old—is somehow 5-1 with a 2.92 ERA.

In the American League, meanwhile, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez has been his usual sparkling self, undefeated at 5-0 and boasting a 1.73 ERA. And the Yankees’ Michael Pineda (4-0, 2.97 ERA) has been unexpectedly brilliant. 

But neither can touch Houston’s Dallas Keuchel, who has emerged as the AL’s clear Cy Young Award front-runner. Keuchel (3-0) was named the AL’s Pitcher of the Month for April, after a dominant six-start stretch to start the season:

For the most part, Cy Young voters pay attention to two things: a pitcher’s statistics and his team’s success. Keuchel’s resume is impeccable on both counts. First, consider the following chart:

	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	H/9 IP	FIP	WAR
Keuchel	45	0.80	510	0.756	4.2	2.65	2.6
AL Rank	1	1	1	1	1	4	1

Keuchel leads the AL in nearly every major statistical category, both advanced and traditional. He’s been durable—tossing a league-high 45 innings—and efficient, allowing just four earned runs total in his first seven starts.

He has coaxed ground balls an astonishing 64.5 percent of the time, per FanGraphs.com. And his current WAR leads all American Leaguers—including position players—by more than a 25 percent margin. 

There really isn’t any argument to be brooked here. By a considerable margin, Keuchel has posted the most impressive stats of any AL pitcher.

Second, perhaps more importantly, his team is winning. The surprising Astros are a league-best 18-9, good for tops in the AL West, and they’re 6-1 when Keuchel starts. (The only loss came on Monday night, when Keuchel threw 110 pitches over eight innings, allowed one earned run and struck out eight batters in a 2-1 loss to the Texas Rangers. Can’t pin that one on Keuchel.) 

Somewhat unsurprisingly, nobody predicted any of this. ESPN’s David Schoenfield predicted Houston to finish third in their division and didn’t even mention Keuchel. Not a single expert at CBSSports.com picked Houston to finish higher than fourth in the division; the same was true of pundits at ESPN.com. 

Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh picked Seattle to win the division and Houston to finish fourth. “Strikeouts alone won’t be what keeps the Astros from winning, but subpar pitching and defense will force them to wait one more year,” he wrote. Lindbergh at least mentioned Keuchel, but he gave no indication fans should expect this sort of start.

It’s early yet, but those predictions are looking less accurate by the day.

Of course, Keuchel has benefitted from several things outside of his control.

Keuchel's opponents are hitting just .174 on balls in play, an unsustainably low mark certain to regress upward. Houston’s defense has been excellent, ranking fifth in the majors in fielding percentage while leading baseball in total chances handled. And the team’s bullpen has been similarly top-notch, ranking fifth in the AL by ERA, fifth by runs allowed and second in strikeouts.

Houston’s offense, meanwhile, has hit a meager .239 as a team (good for just 20th in the MLB). But they’re second overall in home runs, third in walks and sixth in total runs. They’ve averaged more than four runs per game when Keuchel pitches, a roughly league-average mark but more than enough for the precise southpaw. 

The best news for Houston fans? Keuchel’s success bears no sign of a fluke. As the table below shows, Keuchel has steadily improved since his career began in 2012:

Year:	IP	ERA	SO	FIP	WHIP
2012	85.1	5.27	38	5.74	1.547
2013	153.2	5.15	123	4.25	1.536
2014	200.0	2.93	146	3.21	1.175
2015 (7 starts)	45.0	0.80	30	2.65	0.756

He has walked fewer batters, struck out more and allowed fewer runs and fewer hits in each successive season. And if that weren’t enough, he comes with no notable risk of injury. Apart from an essentially spotless health history, the 27-year-old is not a hard thrower and relies little on high-torque pitches, according to Yahoo Sports’ Scott Pianowski.

None of Keuchel's pitches average higher than 90 mph. And 87 percent of those pitches are fastballs, changeups or cutters—none of which require the violent, injury-prone wrist movements of a curveball or slider. 

Given his lack of notable injuries and his preference for accuracy over speed, there seems little reason to anticipate health problems. Given his consistent improvement, there seems equally little reason to call his hot start an accident. And given his dominance thus far, Dallas Keuchel is undoubtedly the AL Cy Young Award front-runner. 

Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com.