Atlanta Hawks Reclaiming Elite Status with Rested Wizards Up Next
Even after the Atlanta Hawks' thorough dismantling of the Brooklyn Nets in a series-clinching Game 6 victory on Friday, it would be understandable to think of the Washington Wizards as the favorites in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Sure, the Hawks were on the money Friday night, riding a 41-point third quarter to a big lead and then cruising to the final buzzer and a 111-87 victory. But now, they have only a single day to rest before squaring off with the Wizards, who have been sitting tight and presumably staying loose ever since completing their dominant sweep of the Toronto Raptors.
The final game in that Toronto-Washington "battle" came all the way back on April 26, and it wasn't a particularly close contest. Washington won by 31 points in front of its hometown fans, taking advantage of a team that often looked as if it had completely forgotten how to play basketball.
While the Wizards were recovering and watching other teams attempt to join them in the second round, the Hawks were failing to live up to the expectations typically associated with a No. 1 seed. Fresh off the first 60-win campaign in franchise history, they dropped two games to a team that only barely slid into the playoff field. They allowed Deron Williams to turn back the clock, Jarrett Jack to torch them off the bench and Alan Anderson to capture lightning in a bottle.
But beyond that, their own players underwhelmed.
Kyle Korver struggled with his shot, while Al Horford's injured pinky clearly gave him trouble on those mid-range shots he so often swishes through the twine. The loss of Thabo Sefolosha was clearly felt, and Dennis Schroder struggled to live up to the new standard he created for himself after a regular season filled with stellar play and constant improvement.
So again, it would be perfectly understandable to think the Wizards are favorites heading into the next round, despite their No. 5 seed and the Hawks' position at the top of the Eastern Conference. But it would also be incorrect, and not just because a one-series sample often shouldn't trump the body of work from an entire season.
The Hawks are starting to look like themselves again, and the Wizards may well be fool's gold in this particular matchup, even if they're most assuredly a strong enough team to pull off the upset.
But if the Wizards win, it would still be an upset.
Is It January Again?
Midway through Atlanta's series with the Nets, it looked as if the Hawks were falling apart. Shots weren't falling, the trademark ball movement was stagnating and, perhaps most problematically, the defense was having loads of trouble.
Even when they successfully contested shots and didn't let Anderson or Bojan Bogdanovic work themselves free on the perimeter, they gave up far too many second-chance opportunities. The team's lack of size was highly problematic, especially coupled with a distinct lack of effort and mental preparedness.
But that changed during Game 6.
Atlanta still gave up nine offensive rebounds, but everything else was on point. The Hawks made rotations in time to contest most shots, and their swarming style suddenly surfaced again. Off-ball defenders jumped into the passing lanes and created plenty of fast-break chances that sped up the proceedings, and they finally timed their gambles right.
Between the lockdown defense and an offense that refused to stray from the system that got the Hawks here, it's a bit easier to assume one game against a mediocre team will rekindle a spark that was omnipresent during the regular season.
Sights like that were far more common during Game 6 than they've been throughout the series. It wasn't on one play that the Hawks were willing to make the extra pass; it seemed like that happened every single possession.
This ball-sharing, unselfish system is what got Atlanta into the No. 1 seed, and Mike Budenholzer's team didn't abandon it at the first sign of trouble. Now, the Hawks suddenly look like they are playing January basketball once more—remember, they went undefeated during the first month of 2015.
Of course, it helps that some key players started looking better as well.
At the beginning of the Brooklyn series, Horford was quite clearly limited. Dealing with an injured pinky that prevented him from knocking down mid-range jumpers or playing with much confidence on the offensive end, he averaged just 10.3 points on 35.9 percent shooting through the first three games. But in Game 4, the former Gator put up a 17-spot on 8-of-13 shooting from the field, then followed that up with 20 points on 10-of-17 in Game 5.
"But you know what in this series I haven't [been making mid-range looks] and he's been living with that," Horford told TNT's David Aldridge (via Sports Illustrated's DeAntae Price) after Game 5, referring to the sagging defensive style of Brook Lopez. "Luckily, I got my rhythm back and I made shots when I needed to."
Game 6 proved it may not have been mere luck, with the big man knocking down eight of his 14 looks and throwing up 18 points.
And this trend is quite important, because as USA Today's Dan Wolken wrote after the Hawks went up 3-2, "Horford's ability to make to that shot off the throwback—during the regular season, he was 49.4% from 16 feet out to the three-point line—is a huge key in the Hawks' spacing and offensive flow."
Horford isn't the only one starting to heat up, though.
Fresh off a fantastic regular season—he knocked down a league-best 49.2 percent of his shots from beyond the arc—Korver just couldn't get it going against the Nets. After making five of his 11 three-point attempts in Game 1, he hit only 12 of his next 37. That's good for just 32.4 percent in Games 2 through 5, a percentage rather unbecoming of the NBA's premier off-ball sniper.
The sharpshooter rebounded nicely in the series-clinching victory, knocking down his first three attempts from downtown to spark the early lead. He finished 6-of-10 from the perimeter, and that may well be enough to get him going. After all, a shooter this talented just needs to see the ball go through the hoop a few times to get back in rhythm.
Not all of the pieces are back to their January levels, however. Schroder has been quite inconsistent on both ends of the court, and his improved jumper has all but disappeared. Mike Scott wasn't able to defend well enough to stay on the court, and the Sefolosha-less bench as a whole often gave up leads throughout the Brooklyn series.
But even without everyone back in top gear, the Hawks match up quite nicely with their next opponents.
Troublesome Matchup for the Wizards
Regular-season series often don't matter when the playoffs roll around. The Wizards themselves are a great testament to that, as they went 0-3 against the Raptors before sweeping the Canadian representatives out of the postseason field.
So take this with a massive grain of salt, but the Hawks went 3-1 against Washington during the regular season. And if anything, that's actually a bit misleading, because the one loss came after the top seed in the East was locked up, allowing Korver, Horford, Jeff Teague and DeMarre Carroll to all take a night off.
The problem? John Wall and the Wizards simply couldn't solve Atlanta's suffocating defense. Lest we forget because their ball-moving offense gets so much attention, the Hawks did finish sixth in defensive rating this season, allowing only 103.1 points per 100 possessions.
Washington, meanwhile, had a below-average offense for much of the year. In fact, only eight teams posted lower offensive ratings during the 2014-15 campaign.
But against the Hawks, the Wiz were even worse.
During the first contest, all the way back on Nov. 25, Washington earned a 106.2 offensive rating, and this was early enough in the season that the 6-5 Hawks hadn't exactly hit their stride. The next two meetings featured the Wizards scoring just 97.0 and 100.3 points per 100 possessions on Jan. 11 and Feb. 4, respectively, while the final one saw Washington put up its best performance yet.
Unfortunately, that was a 108.9 offensive rating against an Atlanta squad resting four starters. For perspective, a 108.9 offensive rating is the equivalent of the Hawks' regular-season mark (No. 6 in the league).
Even with Paul Pierce and Otto Porter starting to heat up in the playoffs, the Wizards simply don't match up well against Atlanta's defense—a unit built to collapse against driving ball-handlers and then force turnovers on kick-out passes.
Just look at what Wall did in each of the four regular-season meetings:
| Nov. 25 | 21 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 40.0 | -1 |
| Jan. 11 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 54.5 | -9 |
| Feb. 4 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 60.0 | -2 |
| April 12 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 45.0 | +12 |
| Average | 21 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 49.2 | 0 |
The All-Star point guard consistently put up big numbers, but they were accompanied by gaudy turnover figures that hindered an offense almost totally dependent on his production. The Hawks were perfectly content to sag off him, asking him to shoot triples and leaving him in single coverage. They dared the point guard to drive into the teeth of the defense and attempt to throw an ill-advised pass.
If that happens again, it'll be playing right into Atlanta's hands—referring both to Wall's passes and the tempo of the game, as the Hawks want to push the pace and create threes in transition.
Of course, it's not as if this second-round series is guaranteed to end in victory for the No. 1 seed.
Wall is a unique talent at the point, fully capable of almost single-handedly winning games with his two-way dominance. Bradley Beal can catch fire from the perimeter, while the big frontcourt combination of Marcin Gortat and Nene could take advantage of the Hawks' lack of size on the interior.
Plus, the Wizards are playing with plenty of confidence after sweeping their first-round opponent and watching as the Hawks fought through some struggles against the overmatched Nets.
But with a defense built to thrive against drive-and-kick point guards, a resurgent performance versus Brooklyn at the end of the first-round battle and a roster that's starting to convince itself that it's January again, Atlanta is ready to assert itself.
While the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls have started to make the Hawks mere afterthoughts in the Eastern Conference conversation, this team is still prepared to soar.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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