Can Billy Donovan Lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to an NBA Championship?

Billy Donovan has replaced Scott Brooks as head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder, making him the second coach since 2013 to make the leap from college to professional basketball. As head coach of the Florida Gators, Donovan won two national titles and six SEC championships. He is widely considered one of the world’s foremost basketball strategists, as ESPN's Jay Bilas tweeted earlier this week.

The Thunder fired Brooks for a reason. Oklahoma City’s roster includes two of the world’s ten most talented basketball players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. When those two—along with Serge Ibaka—are healthy, the Thunder are title contenders. But both Durant and Westbrook missed time with injury last year, and both are approaching free agency.

If OKC is going to win a championship, it probably has to happen now. Is Donovan up to the job?

On one hand, history says no. Consider some of the notables who jumped from college basketball to the NBA.

Rick Pitino, one of the best college basketball coaches of all time, left Kentucky to coach the Boston Celtics in 1997. He never made the playoffs and finished 102-146 overall. John Calipari, another college basketball luminary, left UMass in 1996 to coach the New Jersey Nets; he never made the playoffs, either, and he finished 72-112. Reggie Theus lasted little more than a year with the Sacramento Kings, finished 44-62 and didn’t make the playoffs.

Since 1993, P.J. Carlesimo (from Seton Hall to the Portland Trailblazers in 1994) and Brad Stevens (from Butler to Boston in 2013) are the only two head coaches to make the playoffs after an NCAA-to-NBA transition.

Plus, coaches in new surroundings often need time to adjust—and time is not something the Thunder have a lot of. In that light, Donovan would seem a dubious hire.

But there is reason for optimism.

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We trust Billy Donovan will have more NBA coaching success than his college coach Rick Pitino did (192-220 record). pic.twitter.com/bqNfDVsIbU

— Bball Perspective (@BballPerspectiv) May 1, 2015"

For one thing, Donovan’s offensive schemes in college aren’t entirely transferable to the NBA, but they don’t run contrary to professional strategies. As Donovan himself wrote when describing Florida’s offensive philosophy, his Gators teams practiced a combination of balanced scoring and ball movement. Both are emerging as cornerstones of a successful offense in the modern NBA.

On a similar note, the three-point shot is rapidly becoming more and more crucial to NBA success. Teams are redesigning their offenses to create as many open three-point looks as possible. That bodes well for Donovan, whose teams consistently ranked among college basketball’s best long-range shooters.

Even more encouragingly, Donovan has welcomed the arrival of advanced statistics with open arms. More and more NBA teams are finding success with metrics and analytics, and Donovan has shown no inclination to cling to one traditional scheme or another. He’s not inextricably tied to the 2-3 zone defense, like Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim, nor the in-your-face pressure that Pitino espouses at Louisville. Donovan has demonstrated an ability to adapt.

For similar reasons, as ESPN’s Jeff Goodman tweeted earlier this week, Pitino himself thinks Donovan will succeed in the NBA.

Another important piece of evidence is the success of Donovan’s former players in the NBA, many of whom have become legitimate stars. Joakim Noah, for instance, is a two-time All Star and former NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

Al Horford has become one of the most underrated superstars in the league. When healthy, Chandler Parsons has been both efficient and successful, and Bradley Beal is a key cog for the emerging Washington Wizards. Corey Brewer is an important role player for the title-minded Houston Rockets. Donovan is clearly capable of working with NBA-caliber talent, managing NBA-level egos and spurring NBA-level work ethics.

Perhaps most crucially, as NBCSports.com’s Dan Feldman noted Friday, Donovan will inherit a Thunder team that boasts two of the ten most talented basketball players in the world. Oklahoma City’s roster is markedly stronger than those that greeted most college-to-pro coaches over the past 20 years. Basketball is a player’s game, particularly in the pros, and Donovan will not be hindered by a lack of skilled players.

Donovan’s experience with Mike Krzyzewski and USA Basketball should help. Donovan will recognize some familiar faces in Oklahoma City, including former Florida assistant Mark Daigneault. And Donovan appears to have the genuine support of Thunder superstar Kevin Durant.

OKC fans must hope Donovan adjusts quickly. Durant becomes a free agent in 2016 and Westbrook the following year. If the 2015-16 season doesn't end with at least a conference title, Durant is probably gone.

Not only would Durant's departure make it dramatically tougher to win a title in subsequent years, but it would encourage Westbrook to follow suit. And that's a nightmare for OKC.

The Thunder can absolutely win a title with Billy Donovan as head coach. But they also need Durant and Westbrook. They are capable of winning next year, and they need to. Otherwise, their title window will be slammed shut.