Breaking Down Dallas Mavericks' Biggest Needs for 2015 NBA Offseason
The Dallas Mavericks went into the 2014-15 season with high expectations but were yet again bounced in the opening round of the NBA playoffs. The disappointment will eventually settle down, and the Mavs have a busy summer ahead.
Even though Dallas caught the injury bug late in the season and didn't get a fair shot at the Houston Rockets, the present core of players simply isn't good enough to contend for a championship and has a lot of holes to plug.
Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle has already made it clear that Rajon Rondo, the team's big midseason trade acquisition, won't be back. Monta Ellis will likely opt out of his cap-friendly contract, while Tyson Chandler and most of the Mavericks' key bench cogs will hit free agency.
Deciding who to bring back is a headache, but it's also an opportunity for the Mavs to reshape the roster. Dallas could have as much as $32.9 million in cap room this summer, per Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders. However, that's the best-case scenario with Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons and Devin Harris as the only returning players.
The Mavericks could have room for a max deal, but they'd have to let go of pretty much everyone and scrape together a bench consisting mostly of minimum-salary guys. That's hardly ideal. Dallas needs to spend its money wisely, going after solid two-way players to balance the roster out.
Dallas has been reluctant in handing out long-term contracts, especially to aging players not named Nowitzki. But with the cap set to rise in 2016-17 thanks to the massive TV deal, the Mavs should ease on those seemingly self-imposed restrictions. With that in mind, team owner Mark Cuban and General Manager Donnie Nelson could very well ink some big deals this summer.
Rim Protection—Re-Sign Chandler?
There was some lingering doubt whether Chandler could bounce back from an injury-riddled 2013-14 campaign with the New York Knicks once he joined the Mavs this season.
Needless to say, those concerns quickly evaporated once Chandler put on his Dallas uniform and stepped on the court. He has looked every bit as good defensively as he was during the Mavericks' 2011 championship run—perhaps even better.
Offensively, Chandler's hard rolls to the rim and smothering screens have been essential in Carlisle's system. When the floor is properly spaced, defenders constantly have to step into the lane and bump him or they risk giving up a wide-open dunk. His ability to draw help without having an outside shot is hard to find at the center position.
But there are certainly concerns. Although he did play 75 regular-season games this season—his most since 2007-08—Chandler does have a checkered injury history. He takes a ton of punishment grinding against elite bruisers in the post, while he also steps into the lane to absorb contact from opposing slashers.
He is 32 and will look for his last big contract. It's risky to pay top dollar for a player of that age, especially one that relies so much on athleticism. A long-term deal could look ugly in a couple of years.
Despite the concerns, the Mavs need Chandler. He has arguably been the most important player of the team this season, gluing Dallas on both ends. With Nowitzki nearing the end of his career, the Mavericks will march into next season with a win-now mentality yet again. Chandler should be part of those plans.
Finding financial middle ground will be key. Chandler earned over $14.5 million this season, per HoopsHype.com. A deal in the vicinity of $44 million for four years would seem reasonable for both parties. Chandler would get long-term financial security, while Dallas would keep its defensive anchor at a reasonable price.
A recent caveat in all of this is DeAndre Jordan's reported interest in joining Dallas this summer, per ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon:
"Another potential prize summer target for the Mavs: Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, who multiple sources say has made it clear through back channels that he will be extremely interested in coming to Dallas."
Jordan doesn't quite have the defensive smarts of Chandler, but he is just 26 and can protect the rim as well as anyone. He would also be a solid building piece for the future along with Parsons. It would appear unlikely for Jordan to leave the Clippers, but he's certainly an option the Mavs should consider if he becomes available.
Address Perimeter Defense
Dallas desperately needs two-way versatility on the wing. The Mavericks allowed the fourth-highest three-point percentage in the NBA this season, and opposing drivers have gotten to the rim at will. Al-Farouq Aminu has been a defensive ace and made strides offensively, but he still lacks in the shooting department.
Even if Dallas keeps Aminu as an energy cog off the bench, adding another wing player will be crucial. Ellis has been huge for the offense the last couple of seasons, but he isn't a good defender. He sacrifices his body and draws charges but often gets lost off the ball and struggles to stay in front of elite scorers.
If Ellis opts out of his $9 million contract, he will likely look for a hefty pay raise. The Mavs could bite the bullet and meet his demands or look to fill his role with a proven "3-and-D" guy at a more reasonable price. Considering how the season ended and the fact that Ellis is about to hit 30, the latter option seems more attractive.
The juiciest free agents of this summer are either restricted or unlikely to leave their current teams. Assuming Dallas keeps some of its own guys and doesn't have max money to throw around, it will have to dig deep to find valuable role players.
Danny Green is perhaps the most ideal fit. He is a great shooter, an elite perimeter stopper and can put the ball on the floor just enough to keep Dallas' motion offense flowing. The San Antonio Spurs will obviously want to keep him, but if the Mavs throw a deal worth around $10 million a year his way, they could probably get him.
Paying eight figures a year for Green might seem like a lot, but Carlisle could probably squeeze as much value out of him as Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich currently does.
The Milwaukee Bucks' Khris Middleton is another interesting prospect. At 23, he's still young and developing, but he has three NBA seasons under his belt. His combination of size, length and shooting is rare, and he could be a great fit in Dallas.
He is terrific running off screens and can abuse his post game against smaller guards. He doesn't lack in the quickness department and can guard multiple positions. The Bucks have outscored opponents by 6.9 points per 100 possessions with Middleton on the floor this season, while posting a -7.1 net rating when he sits, per NBA.com.
Dallas would be smart to look at Middleton as both an immediate contributor in the starting lineup as well as a future prospect to build around.
The Mavs also need a point guard, and Patrick Beverley could potentially be a cheap option. He doesn't provide much offensively, but he can shoot well enough and is a pesky defender.
Other potential fits are Arron Afflalo (player option for 2015-16), DeMarre Carroll (unrestricted) and Wesley Matthews (unrestricted, injured).
Whoever the Mavericks look at in free agency, they'll likely want that elusive two-way versatility. They found great value by picking up Ellis on a cheap contract a couple of years ago, and they'll need to do it again.
Final Thoughts
The Mavericks have some money to spend this summer, and it will be interesting to see which direction Cuban settles for.
Dallas tends to look at the big dogs first, just in case a major free agent might be up for grabs. LaMarcus Aldridge plays the same position as Nowitzki and could test the waters this summer. It might be tough to squeeze two ball-dominant post-up bigs under one roof, but Nowitzki's willingness to come off the bench would help, per ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon:
""Yeah, I mean, whatever it takes," Nowitzki said during the Mavs' exit interviews Wednesday. "I've always said that. My last two years I want to enjoy. I want to be a good team. I want to be on a winning team. Playoffs. Hopefully deep runs. So, yeah, anything I've got to do to help is obviously no question.
"
Whoever the Mavericks decide to go for, they will do so trying to immediately build a title contender. Nowitzki only has a couple of seasons left, and he has sacrificed more than enough financially and role-wise to get another crack at an extended postseason run.
Dallas overpaid Parsons to land his services a year ago and might have to do the same for another player that is a good stylistic fit this summer. With the cap set to explode in the near future, bold moves like that will have fewer repercussions, and they are necessary if the Mavs want to take a step forward.
All contract-related information is courtesy of HoopsHype.com.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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