San Francisco 49ers' 2015 Schedule: Win-Loss Predictions for Every Game
The San Francisco 49ers have the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, according to John Breech of CBSSports.com.
The schedule-makers did the Niners no favors, especially to start the season. Five of the Niners' first seven opponents made the playoffs last season. If they lose to those playoff teams, the Niners could be out of playoff contention before their bye week, which is Week 10.
After the bye week, the Niners play four teams that made the playoffs last season. In total, nine of San Francisco's 16 games will be against teams that made the playoffs.
It’s too early to say for sure which games the Niners will win and lose. Draft picks and preseason injuries will affect the outcome of the season. Here is a preliminary projection for each of their 16 games.
Week 1: San Francisco 49ers 24, Minnesota Vikings 13
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If Adrian Peterson plays, this game will be a tossup.
Peterson might still be the best running back in the NFL. He’s only 30 years old, and he didn’t play last season. He should be fresh and ready to carry the ball 300 times in 2015.
The more the Vikings give the ball to Peterson against the Niners, the better their chances of winning. Peterson will set up the play-action passes for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
But I’m guessing Peterson won’t play in this game. I’m guessing the Vikings will trade him before the season begins. If they do, they won’t have enough firepower to beat San Francisco in the Niners' home opener on Monday night.
Week 2: San Francisco 49ers 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 27
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Even though Steelers tailback Le’Veon Bell might be suspended for this game, the Steelers still can control the time of possession against the Niners.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can pass to All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown as often as he likes. Of all the Niners' corners, only Tramaine Brock has a chance against Brown. But Brown can avoid Brock. He can line up in the slot and go against Jimmie Ward. Ward can’t cover Brown by himself. The 49ers have to double-cover Brown when he lines up in the slot.
The Steelers probably will convert more than 50 percent of their third downs and win this game relatively easily.
Week 3: San Francisco 49ers 20, Arizona Cardinals 24
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The 49ers' first game against the Cardinals takes place in Arizona, where Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton beat them last season.
Cardinals starting quarterback Carson Palmer should be healthy for this game. Palmer is much better than Stanton. Stanton isn’t particularly good, although the 49ers made him look good last season.
On the other hand, Palmer is very good. His passer rating last season before he tore his ACL was 95.6. He has mastered Bruce Arians’ and Tom Moore’s offense.
Palmer will pick on Shareece Wright in this game, and wide receiver Michael Floyd will have a huge day.
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Week 4: San Francisco 49ers 21, Green Bay Packers 31
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What a brutal start to the season. The Packers made the playoffs last season. They are the third playoff team the 49ers will face during the first four weeks of the season.
The past few years, the 49ers dominated finesse passing teams like the Packers. But the Packers aren’t a finesse passing team anymore.
They have one of the most powerful running backs in the NFL—Eddie Lacy. He rushed for 1,139 yards last season. Only six running backs rushed for more.
Lacy is better than Niners tailback Carlos Hyde. Lacy will out-rush him in this game, and the Packers will control the time of possession and win by 10.
Week 5: San Francisco 49ers 20, New York Giants 13
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The 49ers beat the New York Giants 16-10 in New Jersey last season.
The Giants haven’t changed drastically since then. They signed running back Shane Vereen, who’s really a receiver out of the backfield. The Niners will have trouble covering him just like the Seattle Seahawks struggled covering him in the Super Bowl.
But Vereen probably won’t score. He’s not much of a scoring threat. He scored only five touchdowns last season.
The chief threat on the Giants is wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. He’s outstanding, but he can’t carry New York by himself. The Giants will be no good next season, and the Niners will beat them once again.
Week 6: San Francisco 49ers 16, Baltimore Ravens 23
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The Baltimore Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They probably should have beaten the New England Patriots in the playoffs last season.
The Ravens were down by four points against the Patriots with 5:08 left in the fourth quarter. The Ravens had possession of the ball and two timeouts. All they had to do was keep running—they were averaging 4.9 yards per carry in the game.
But the Patriots stopped tailback Justin Forsett for no gain with 3:05 left, and the Ravens never ran the ball again. Quarterback Joe Flacco threw five passes in a row, and the Patriots picked off the fifth one. Ballgame.
The Ravens lost wide receiver Torrey Smith and defensive end Haloti Ngata this offseason, but they still have Forsett. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season. If they give him the ball, he probably will lead Baltimore to a victory over the Niners.
Week 7: San Francisco 49ers 13, Seattle Seahawks 20
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This is a Thursday night game, and the home team usually wins on Thursday night. It isn’t easy for the visitors to travel on a short week.
But the Seahawks don’t have to travel far. The flight from Seattle to San Jose is only two hours, and they won’t change time zones.
We know Marshawn Lynch will be ready to play. He’s always ready to perform in the Bay Area in front of his family. He's always ready to perform period. The Niners never have an answer for him. He’s averaging 4.55 yards per carry in his career against them.
Lynch will rush for 100 yards, and the 49ers will start the season 2-5.
Week 8: San Francisco 49ers 23, St. Louis Rams 24
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The 49ers get an extra few days to prepare for this game. Can the new coaching staff come up with some creative wrinkles for the game plan? We don’t know—it doesn't have much of a track record.
We do know that the Rams have a terrific coaching staff. I doubt Jim Tomsula will outcoach Jeff Fisher next season. The Rams also have a new defensive coordinator—Gregg Williams. He is very good.
The Rams are a young up-and-coming team. And they’re fast, especially at home on their turf. The Niners should have a tough time chasing Rams tailback Tre Mason around the field.
Week 9: San Francisco 49ers 24, Atlanta Falcons 17
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The Atlanta Falcons have roughly three good players—quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones and cornerback Desmond Trufant.
Those three players are elite. The Falcons can build around them. The problem is they still haven’t built anything. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and no running game on offense.
The 49ers probably will double-cover Jones and force another player to beat them. The Falcons' second-best skill position player is 33-year-old receiver Roddy White. He has been slow and ineffective the past two seasons. He can’t beat the 49ers by himself.
Week 11: San Francisco 49ers 10, Seattle Seahawks 19
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Coming off a bye, the 49ers have two weeks to prepare for this game. I’m not sure they could win if they had 10 weeks to prepare.
The Niners never have beaten Russell Wilson in CenturyLink Field. Not once. They have enough trouble stopping Marshawn Lynch—trying to stop Lynch and Wilson has been next to impossible for the Niners defense.
The only player on the Niners offense who has a matchup advantage against the Seahawks defense is running back Reggie Bush. He can catch some short passes over the middle. But he can’t beat the Seahawks single-handedly.
Week 12: San Francisco 49ers 21, Arizona Cardinals 20
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The Cardinals are a pass-first team that wants to throw the ball downfield.
That style of offense works on turf, which the Arizona has on its home field. That’s why the Cardinals went 7-1 at home last season.
But they went 4-4 on the road. They don’t have a running game. Their No. 1 running back is Andre Ellington, an injury-prone scatback. It helps to have a real running game when you play on the road, especially if you’re playing on grass.
Grass slows teams down. On the grass at Levi’s Stadium, the Cardinals don’t play much faster than the Niners, and the Niners play tougher than the Cardinals.
Week 13: San Francisco 49ers 16, Chicago Bears 21
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The Chicago Bears' record last season was 5-11, but Week 2 they beat the 49ers in Santa Clara. Now, the Bears get to play the Niners in Chicago.
The Bears had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. So they fired their defensive coordinator, Mel Tucker, and replaced him with former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Fangio has worked himself to the top of his profession. He might be the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. If anyone knows how to shut down the 49ers offense, it’s him—he saw it almost every day for four seasons.
Week 14: San Francisco 49ers 19, Cleveland Browns 7
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The Cleveland Browns have to be one of the worst teams in the league.
They don’t have a franchise quarterback or a go-to guy on offense (the NFL indefinitely suspended wide receiver Josh Gordon this offseason). The Browns have a shutdown cornerback—Joe Haden—but they don’t have a good run defense. The Niners simply can run the ball down their throats. And that’s what they will do.
Carlos Hyde might rush for 200 yards in this game. And Torrey Smith probably will burn 32-year-old cornerback Tramon Williams for at least one long catch.
Week 15: San Francisco 49ers 17, Cincinnati Bengals 24
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The 49ers don’t have one cornerback who matches up with Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green.
The Niners will have to double-cover him and single-cover the rest of the Bengals’ skill-position players. Which 49er matches up man to man with lightning-quick scatback Giovani Bernard?
None of them.
The Niners don’t have a linebacker quick enough to cover Bernard in space. The Bengals can keep the chains moving against the Niners by throwing short passes to him and running up the middle with Jeremy Hill, who gained 1,124 yards as a rookie last season.
Week 16: San Francisco 49ers 20, Detroit Lions 27
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The Niners' No. 1 cornerback, Tramaine Brock, is 5’10”—seven inches shorter than the Detroit Lions' No.1 wide receiver, Calvin Johnson.
How will Brock cover Johnson in the red zone? Johnson will be open even when Brock is all over him. Johnson can catch the ball over Brock’s head. Brock will be helpless.
The Niners have to double-cover Johnson with Brock and strong safety Antoine Bethea. But Bethea is only 5’11”—not much taller than Brock. Johnson can catch the ball over both of them.
In addition to double-covering Johnson, the Niners have to double-cover the Lions’ No. 2 receiver, Golden Tate. The Niners' No. 2 cornerback, Shareece Wright, can’t cover him either. Wright needs help from free safety Eric Reid. The middle of the field should be wide open for the Lions offense. Running back Joique Bell and tight end Eric Ebron should have strong games.
Week 17: San Francisco 49ers 17, St. Louis Rams 13
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The Rams beat the 49ers 13-10 at Levi’s Stadium last season.
But the Niners should have won. They had the ball at the Rams' 1-yard line with nine seconds left in the fourth quarter. Colin Kaepernick tried to sneak the ball into the end zone for the win, but he fumbled. And the Rams recovered.
It was a fluke ending. It won’t happen again.
This time, the 49ers face a new Rams quarterback—Nick Foles. They beat him last season at Levi’s Stadium when he was the quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Niners didn’t only beat him; they beat him up.
They will beat him up again, and a disappointing Niners season will end on a positive note.
Final Record: 6-10
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