Indianapolis Colts 2015 Schedule: Win-Loss Predictions for Every Game
The world stood still on Tuesday night as the NFL released the 2015 regular-season schedule in its entirety.
Sure, each team's opponents have been well-known for months, and there are playoff basketball and hockey games on. Who cares! The NFL is king.
We already know the Indianapolis Colts are the AFC South favorites and one of the top two or three favorites in the conference, but now that we have a scheduled game-by-game lineup, a potential story of the season is beginning to take shape.
Whether it's the two stretches of divisional matchups or the dreaded midseason run against playoff teams, we can already predict where the Colts will struggle and where they may find solace on the schedule. But every game counts in a 16-game schedule, and today we look at each of those games with an early prediction.
Week 1: At Buffalo
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The Buffalo Bills will be defined by their defense until they get a quarterback. Sure, they added running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Percy Harvin to join Sammy Watkins, Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods for an explosive group of skill position players, but without a quarterback, the Bills will only be taken as far as the defense can carry them.
This is an area the Colts can exploit. The team did a good job of getting after below-average quarterbacks last season, and both Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel could be described as such.
The Bills defense made an important offseason move by re-signing former Colts linebacker Jerry Hughes, and he'll be a key player on Buffalo's dominant front four. But with the contracts of Mario Williams and Kyle Williams also to deal with, the Bills were forced to let some key players go in the 2015 free-agency period.
Buffalo should still have a tough defense, but it may take a step back from last season's stellar unit. Meanwhile, the rudderless offense won't be able to keep up with Indianapolis. The Bills have a strong roster, but the Colts have too big of a quarterback advantage.
As long as the Colts offensive line doesn't completely combust, the Colts should open the season with a win.
Colts 26, Bills 17 (1-0)
Week 2: Vs. New York Jets
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Much like the Bills, the New York Jets are burdened with questions at quarterback. The team did add journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick to help push third-year quarterback Geno Smith, but if the Jets are going to be competitive in the AFC, it's going to involve Smith morphing into a competent starting quarterback.
This early in the season, that seems unlikely.
Still, the Colts' home opener and first prime-time game of the season won't be a complete cakewalk.
The Jets added wide receiver Brandon Marshall and running back Stevan Ridley to give Smith more weapons, and the defense remains one of the league's toughest units. The defensive line consisting of Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison might be the league's best unit, and they can rush the passer as well as shut down the run.
If the Colts can't run the ball well, however, they might struggle offensively. With the Jets adding Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine in the defensive backfield, New York will be tough to throw on. The game, especially following a tough Buffalo matchup, will be a good measuring stick of how well the Colts receiving corps fits together this early in the season.
Still, the Colts defense will feast on a bad quarterback, and Andrew Luck will score enough to win.
Colts 22, Jets 10 (2-0)
Week 3: At Tennessee
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You guessed it: Another team without a quarterback, but this club doesn't seem to have a plan.
The Titans have been making questionable moves with little to connect them together for the last couple of years, and it has resulted in them getting the second overall pick in 2015. Other than signing pass-rusher Brian Orakpo in free agency, it doesn't really feel like the Titans have done anything to get them closer to contending this offseason yet either.
A large part of this game could revolve around the Titans' first draft pick in 2015, which could be Oregon's Marcus Mariota.
If Tennessee does choose to move on from 2014 sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger, this will be the Colts' first look at Mariota, Tennessee's quarterback of the future. They've generally had no issues with young quarterbacks, so it wouldn't project to be a problem, but you never know. If the Titans stick with Mettenberger, the Colts should handle this game even better than their first two games of the season.
Colts 42, Titans 17 (3-0)
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Week 4: Vs. Jacksonville
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The Jacksonville Jaguars' present and future is currently tied to second-year quarterback Blake Bortles and his development. Though he wasn't as bad in his rookie season as his predecessor, Blaine Gabbert, Bortles struggled enough for Jaguars fans to be concerned, throwing just 11 touchdowns to 17 interceptions.
Jacksonville has a promising roster in many areas, and they could be a threat down the road if Bortles develops, but that's not something they're worrying about at the moment.
One thing that could present a problem for Indianapolis is newly signed tight end Julius Thomas, who torched the Colts in the team's season-opening loss in Denver last year. If Bortles develops a rapport with Thomas, they could find some success there against Indianapolis.
Other than that, the Colts have dominated both sides of the ball in recent matchups with the Jaguars, and not enough has changed in recent months to expect anything different.
Colts 38, Jaguars 20 (4-0)
Week 5: At Houston
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Andre Johnson's return to Houston will be the story here, no matter the deep history between these two teams.
Johnson played in Houston for 12 years, setting every receiving record and carrying the offense during his entire tenure. The divorce between the two parties wasn't particularly pleasant, and while Johnson says signing with the Colts wasn't a spiteful move, per Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, this game will certainly have some tension to it.
Of course, there's always the battle up front between J.J. Watt and Co. and the Colts offensive line, so even with the additions of Johnson and Frank Gore, the Colts will not be guaranteed to be able to score on Houston. Still, the Colts scored 33 in Houston last year, thanks in large part to a superhuman effort by T.Y. Hilton, who had nine catches for 223 yards and a touchdown.
The real question for Houston, like the first four teams on the schedule, revolves around the quarterback position. Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage represent the Unholy Trinity for 2015, and Houston may still be figuring out its starter at this point in the season.
Houston plays the Colts tough at home, but the fundamental quarterback question continues to be too much.
Colts 27, Texans 21 (5-0)
Week 6: Vs. New England
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It hasn't yet built into what it was in the early 2000s, but the New England Patriots are filling the role of nemesis for the Andrew Luck Colts quite well.
But while the Patriots have been known for their ability to shut down the high-powered Colts offenses, whether it be led by Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, it's been the Patriots offense that has been the dominating force in recent years. The two teams have played four times in the last three seasons, with the Patriots winning by an average of 29 points. In those meetings, the Patriots have scored 59, 43, 42 and 45 points.
The Colts defense didn't do much to get better in free agency, and it will need some key draft picks to be able to make significant strides against New England. At the same time, a big part of those lopsided results has been the Colts getting outcoached. This will be an early test of how much Chuck Pagano and his staff have developed in their third full year together.
Then, of course, there is Luck, who has struggled against Bill Belichick's defenses. The Patriots have done an excellent job of taking away Luck's top options and making the offense one-dimensional in recent meetings, but the Colts hope that adding Frank Gore and Andre Johnson will help overwhelm the Patriots defense, especially after New England lost both starting cornerbacks in free agency.
If the Colts could pull off this win, it would be huge for the development of the team. However, there haven't been quite enough defensive improvements for that to happen.
Patriots 38, Colts 31 (5-1)
Week 7: Vs. New Orleans
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On paper, the New Orleans Saints are the kind of team that could give the Colts problems.
They're quarterbacked by a future Hall of Famer in Drew Brees, have a balanced offense with a well-rounded running back committee and have a crafty coach in Sean Payton. If any game has the potential to turn into a track-meet shootout like the Colts' loss in Pittsburgh last season, it's this game.
However, there's one big key here: The Colts get this matchup at home, a huge advantage in this particular case. The Colts defense—outside of the loss to New England—was surprisingly good at home last year, giving up less than 14 points per game in the eight games against non-Patriots (including the home playoff win over Cincinnati). The Saints, on the other hand, have a history of struggling on the road, although the team did go 4-4 on the road last year.
Still, the Saints traded away their biggest advantage over the Colts in the offseason, swapping tight end Jimmy Graham for center Max Unger and a first-round pick. Meanwhile, the Saints defense was 28th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed last season.
But the Saints have potential for improvement defensively, with safety Jairus Byrd returning from injury and the addition of cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Kyle Wilson in free agency. Will it be enough against the Colts?
I have my doubts. If this one was in New Orleans, it might be a different story.
Colts 40, Saints 30 (6-1)
Week 8: At Carolina
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The battle between former No. 1 overall picks is here!
Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, No. 1 picks in back-to-back NFL drafts, have never faced each other in the NFL, and while the two players will never be on the field together in this one either, that will be the storyline in this game.
The Carolina Panthers made the playoffs last year by virtue of winning the horrific NFC South, and they'll look to make the postseason for a third consecutive year in 2015. However, the team still had a losing record last season at 7-8-1, and they really haven't made any moves yet in free agency that will lead to improvements in 2015. The Panthers are praying for significant development in key areas, and I'm not so sure that's a given.
The defense will continue to be stout, although not among the league's elite because of a secondary with gaping holes. The offense relies too much on Cam Newton's ground threat and hasn't been efficient enough passing the ball, and the Colts may be able to exploit that.
Colts 27, Panthers 17 (7-1)
Week 9: Vs. Denver
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The final game of the Colts' most difficult four-game stretch is, of course, the Peyton Manning Homecoming Game, Vol. 2.
There will be more hype for this game than even the Colts-Patriots matchup, especially if both teams are doing as well as expected through the first half of the season.
For the Colts, there is plenty of confidence in their ability to beat the Broncos. The team is 2-1 against Manning in the last two seasons, beating Denver in Indianapolis in 2013 and on the road in last year's divisional round of the playoffs. Just ask Mike Adams, who told NFL AM that the Colts "figured out" Peyton Manning.
The Colts defense played lights-out in that matchup, but there was also a definite ailment affecting Manning's play, which may not be in effect in Week 9 of 2015. If Manning is healthy, he'll be looking for revenge. Fortunately for Indianapolis, the Colts defense matches up with Denver fairly well, especially with Julius Thomas now in Jacksonville.
The bigger key will be for the Colts offense to keep Manning off the field with sustained drives. With Denver losing defensive tackle Terrance Knighton in free agency and the Colts making a push to have more balance, Frank Gore could be a key here.
Colts 28, Broncos 24 (8-1)
Week 11: At Atlanta
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After a much-needed bye following a very difficult four-games stretch, the Colts enter an easier second-half schedule. However, the first game against Atlanta could be a trap game.
The Falcons should be healthier in 2015 than they were last season, and we've seen just how explosive their offense can be with Matt Ryan at the helm and Julio Jones doing his thing. Remember how they took Green Bay to the brink with a 37-43 loss late last year? If the Colts struggle to get pass rush on Ryan, Atlanta will put up its fair share of points. Jones and his tendency to go anywhere on the field will be a very difficult cover for the Colts secondary.
On the flip side, the Colts will likely be the most explosive offense the Falcons face all year, and with a full week to prepare, Indianapolis could come out with guns blazing. In another potential shootout, especially on the road, I still give the Colts the edge.
Colts 38, Falcons 27 (9-1)
Week 12: Vs. Tampa Bay
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This game, like the entire 2015 season for Tampa Bay, will likely be about rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. He hasn't been announced as Tampa Bay's pick yet, but Winston has been at the top of most people's boards for months—it's difficult to find a mock draft without Winston going No. 1.
Even if Winston isn't picked at No. 1, the Buccaneers' season will revolve around him, perhaps even more so, as people compare Tampa Bay's 2015 season with how Winston does in his NFL career.
But unless Tampa Bay drafts Winston and he becomes one of the best rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, it's hard to see any scenario where the Buccaneers come into Indianapolis and pull off the upset. There is simply too much of a talent disparity. Winston could make it interesting, throwing jump balls to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans while the defense kept the Colts off-balance for a while.
In the end, however, I don't see the Colts being stymied by the Tampa Bay defense (18th in Football Outsiders' DVOA last year) for long.
Colts 27, Tampa Bay 13 (10-1)
Week 13: At Pittsburgh
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The New England offense has pushed the Colts around most frequently in recent years, but the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is probably the worst possible matchup for Indianapolis, which makes this one a very tough road game.
With Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offensive line excelling at recognizing and picking up the Colts' blitzes, Pittsburgh waltzed its way to 51 points last season. The balance of Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown through the air mixed with one of the NFL's best running backs in Le'Veon Bell makes for a very difficult challenge for Indianapolis, and I don't see that changing in 2015.
Defensively, the Steelers could be vulnerable. The team was 30th in Football Outsiders' DVOA last year, largely due to a paper-thin secondary, and that unit also lost Troy Polamalu to retirement this offseason. The team will likely make the secondary a key target in the NFL draft, but for now, it's a big weakness that Luck could exploit with big plays down the field, much like they did last year.
The Colts could be more efficient offensively this time around, and Vontae Davis being healthy would be a big help, but neither would separate the matchup advantages Pittsburgh has offensively. This should be another shootout, and I think the Colts' luck turns on them this time.
Steelers 41, Colts 38 (10-2)
Week 14: At Jacksonville
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Getting to follow up a road trip to Pittsburgh with a trip down to sunny Jacksonville is a nice boost for Indianapolis. Actually, all of the Colts' remaining December games are in either Indianapolis or Florida, something I'm sure the Colts veterans won't be complaining about.
Weather conditions aside, the Jaguars are headed for another losing season, and the Colts haven't lost in Jacksonville with Luck at the helm. The Jaguars traditionally play the Colts tough in Jacksonville, but that hasn't really been the case in recent years, with the Colts winning by an average of 26 points over the last three years.
Last year, Andrew Luck's stellar statistical season really took off with the team's Week 3 win in Jacksonville; this year, he could be putting the stamp on a potential MVP season.
Colts 35, Jaguars 17 (11-2)
Week 15: Vs. Houston
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The Colts take great pride in the fact that the Texans have never won in Indianapolis, and they'll keep that streak alive in 2015.
In 2014, the Texans' December trip to Indianapolis was marred by poor quarterback play and Dan Herron controlling the game late for the Colts. It wasn't the prettiest of wins for Indianapolis, but it was a win, and I'd expect this one to turn out a similar product.
As the Colts try to limit Luck's hits and throws late in the season, as well as the veterans' snaps (namely Gore and Johnson), don't be surprised if Herron and/or a rookie running back get a lot of play in an attempt to speed the game up in the second half.
Colts 23, Texans 13 (12-2)
Week 16: At Miami
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The Miami Dolphins have played the Colts very tough over the last few years, with the two teams splitting two games. The Colts got the better of the Dolphins in 2012, as a rookie Andrew Luck put together a stellar performance, but the team lost a close one early in 2013 as Luck was unable to replicate his third-down heroics.
More than two years later, the two teams will face off once again, this time in a late-season matchup. For the Colts, early projections are that their early-season schedule will be easy enough to give them room to rest down the stretch.
With the Dolphins' scary defensive line, headed by Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, the Colts may decide to be conservative with this game. If the Colts don't do as well as they hoped earlier in the season, however, this game could end up being a critical battle for playoff positioning. The quarterback battle between Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck will be fascinating.
Dolphins 24, Colts 17 (12-3)
Week 17: Vs. Tennessee
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The Colts have lost just one home game to the Titans since 2003, and it doesn't feel like 2015 is going to be the time to start adding to that list.
Still, with it being late in a dominant season, there is a very strong possibility that the Colts rest starters here, depending on if they are in a race for a particular seed in the AFC.
Even if the Colts do take it easy with some starters, the team plays divisional rivals well. They also won't want to see their undefeated streak against divisional opponents—which is currently 13 games long and could be at 18 by this point—come to an end.
If the Colts do need this win for critical playoff positioning—or by some disaster, clinching the division—a home game against the Titans is an excellent way to end the season.
Colts 21, Titans 13 (13-3)
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