Who Should the New York Knicks Target in the 2015 NBA Draft?
The New York Knicks' season-long display of futility is almost through, and it's about to result in something the franchise has hardly ever known—a high lottery pick.
Either by winning too many games, trading away their selection or a combination of the two, attractive draft choices rarely find their way to Madison Square Garden.
But under Phil Jackson, this season—a year in which the team actually owns its first-rounder—had a clear purpose: to be bad. Once Jackson realized that the team constructed on opening night wasn't good enough to compete for the postseason, not only did he make the Knicks worse—he attempted to make them the worst. And although the Minnesota Timberwolves may be destined to finish 30th out of 30 this year, New York's president did everything in his power to catapult this year's pick to the top of the order.
After beating the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, the Knicks slipped to a game behind Minnesota for the league's worst record, with the Philadelphia 76ers on their tails, a game back.
Different combinations of Knicks, Timberwolves and 76ers outcomes on Tuesday can have a huge impact on how many ping-pong balls they'll own next month in the draft lottery. Worst-case scenario, they can drop to No. 6 overall (via The Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring), if New York finishes tied with Philly, loses a coin flip and is extremely unlucky during the drawing.
Regardless of what number selection they end up with, Jackson's front office will have a number of directions to go, and a number weaknesses to aid via the draft. With Carmelo Anthony viewed as the only long-term keeper on the roster, the team needs help at every position. Whether it be a big man, a point guard or talent on the wing, this draft has it all in the top five or six.
Lucky Draw
Let's say something outrageous happens: The Knicks get lucky. Rare, yes, but the math says New York will have one of the better chances at nabbing that first overall pick. And if they do, they should only have one player in mind.
Karl-Anthony Towns.
After Jahlil Okafor dominated the headlines over much of the NCAA season, the Towns bandwagon gained significant steam heading into the tournament—so much so, that the Kentucky product now tops several prominent draft boards.
Compared to Okafor, Towns had always been the prospect with a more versatile ceiling. His superior athleticism, rebounding skill and commitment to defense make that much seem obvious. But it wasn't until about midway through Kentucky's season that the 19-year-old began to morph that potential into tangible results.
He averaged just 21.1 minutes a night on the Wildcats' stacked roster, but over 40 minutes, his numbers amounted to 19.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.3 blocks. According to Hoop-Math, he made 76 percent of his shots at the rim—just a percentage point off Okafor's pace.
Kentucky boasted the best defensive efficiency in the nation, allowing 84.4 points per 100 possessions. But with Towns on the floor, that mark dipped even further, to a staggering 78.1.
As a Knick, Towns would be able to coincide with Carmelo Anthony by playing either the 4 or the 5. His range extends to deep two-point territory. Despite lacking Okafor's extremely polished post game, Towns makes very good reads as a passer—key in Derek Fisher's triangle.
With Anthony clearly the team's centerpiece and entering his 31-year-old season in 2015-16, Jackson's regime might opt for Okafor's NBA-ready scoring. He isn't the prototypical fit for a team with 'Melo at the helm, but coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Knicks will need as many selling points to potential free agents as possible—and make no mistake, Okafor is a major one.
But Towns' potential for growth over multiple seasons is more important. According to Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, Towns wears a size 20 shoe and could grow to 7'3" in the early stages of his career. Both in skill and physical gifts, his ceiling is higher than Okafor's. And though the Duke center may be able to provide more of an impact in the early years of his career, Towns may grow to dominate in several facets at his position—whereas Okafor may never provide an edge in any area beside the block.
Plenty of Options
Should the Knicks miss out on the first pick, they'll still be in an advantageous position on draft night. The decision-making process could get more complicated, but regardless of whether they land the second, third, fourth or fifth pick, the answer to New York's biggest question would be very simple.
If Towns is off the board, Justise Winslow should be the Knicks' next-highest target.
The clamoring for Okafor from Knicks fans would undoubtedly be loud and crystal clear, if he were there for the taking while Jackson was on the clock. But, especially at Nos. 2 or 3, the Knicks front office would be able to turn one asset into multiple building blocks.
Trading from second or third down to fourth or fifth would not only enable the team a chance at drafting Winslow, but could potentially net the Knicks another draft pick—either later in this year's first round or in 2016, a draft in which New York currently doesn't own a pick.
Okafor is a bona fide top-two pick. But drafting him to this Knicks team would leave Jackson very handicapped while constructing a roster around not only his flaws, but Anthony's similar deficiencies as well.
Valid arguments could also be made for selecting a point guard, either with D'Angelo Russell out of Ohio State of Emmanuel Mudiay after spending a year in China. Both 6'5" guards bring great skill sets and highlight reels, and both could immediately help any team.
But in the triangle, point guard creativity isn't as necessary as in traditional, pick-and-roll-heavy offenses. Mudiay and Russell may be gifted enough break the mold and show off versatility within the system, but Jackson—whose Bulls and Lakers teams never featured star point guards—may be inclined to look elsewhere.
Trading back in the draft and turning, say, Okafor or Russell into Winslow and an additional pick would be the best move Jackson could make.
Winslow, the 6'6" forward, averaged 12.6 points and 6.5 rebounds for the national champion Duke team and overshadowed his teammate, Okafor, in the national championship game with an all-around great performance. While Okafor went for 10 points and just three rebounds, Winslow scored 11 and grabbed nine boards, also blocking three shots and coming away with a steal.
These types of versatile outputs are what could, in time, make Winslow the type of threat Jimmy Butler is for the Chicago Bulls. His jumper, which was suspect entering the season, evolved over his freshman campaign—Winslow knocked down 41.7 percent of 110 three-point attempts. He has a strong frame and works well in several different roles offensively while able to guard almost any position.
With a 6'10" wingspan, Winslow could start at whichever forward position 'Melo isn't playing. His shooting stroke would keep help defenders honest while Anthony has the ball, and his ability to score off the dribble makes him a threat to create shots for himself.
The Knicks, who've been deprived for years of athletic, two-way wings, may have a chance to acquire one of the most promising ones of this generation. That's a difficult opportunity to pass up.
Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6.
Stats from Sports-Reference and Hoop-Math.
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