2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Miami Dolphins Stars
The Miami Dolphins stars will springboard from an encouraging effort under first-time offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Jordan Cameron, Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller form a core on the edge of greatness in 2015 from a fantasy football perspective.
Head coach Joe Philbin brought in Lazor after Mike Sherman failed to improve the offense in his two seasons at the helm. Lazor gained notoriety through Nick Foles’ sudden success in 2013 with the Philadelphia Eagles as his quarterbacks coach in Chip Kelly’s staff.
Miami’s offense finished in the top half in scoring (11th) and yardage (14th) as a result, the first time both happened since the Dave Wannstedt era (2002). The Dolphins offense finished 14th in standard fantasy scoring.
The Dolphins didn’t stop there, tweaking the front office by signing former New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum in January to be the team’s executive vice president of football operations. Second-year general manager Dennis Hickey will work under Tannenbaum and remain in charge of personnel and scouting, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald.
The pair didn’t waste time unloading big salaries while taking on new ones as the 2015 league year kicked off in March, according to Spotrac.
Now it’s up to Philbin and Lazor to build on last year’s success with a mix of new and returning names heading into OTAs.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 10
Josh Freeman, QB
It appeared Josh Freeman’s promising NFL career abruptly ended when the New York Giants cut him in May of 2014 just six weeks after signing him. Then Miami scooped him up off the street in early April of 2015, according to B/R’s Mike Freeman on Twitter:
"Josh Freeman has signed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins.
— mike freeman (@mikefreemanNFL) April 2, 2015
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Freeman’s contract isn’t guaranteed, and his place with the Dolphins isn’t assured. This is probably his last opportunity to redeem his career in the NFL.
Michael Preston, WR
Preston’s greatest attribute is his team-leading 6’5” frame. The raw, undrafted talent from the Division III Heidelberg Student Princes—yes that’s a real mascot—washed out after two seasons with the talent-starved Tennessee Titans.
Matt Moore, QB
Although the Dolphins also signed Freeman, Moore’s superior contract signals he will be Ryan Tannehill’s primary backup, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.
“No NFL team [guarantees] a player 61 percent of his salary and then cuts him,” he wrote.
The seven-year veteran didn’t generate enough interest to compete for a starting job elsewhere, so he’ll don the earpiece and mentor Tannehill for the fourth straight season.
Rishard Matthews, WR
Matthews’ future with Miami is uncertain, according to the Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero on Twitter:
"Dolphins WR room is not a safe place. Hartline, Gibson released, Wallace drama and possible release, Matthews asked to be released/traded.
— Armando Salguero (@ArmandoSalguero) February 27, 2015
"
He saw healthy scratches and only 22 targets in 2014 after catching 41 for 448 yards and two touchdowns the year prior. If Matthews remains with the Dolphins, he could have a fantasy impact, but it’s difficult to tell if he’s on board with the team and vice versa.
LaMichael James, RB
James could finally tap the potential that saw the San Francisco 49ers draft him in the second round back in 2012. The 5’9”, 195-pound scatback caught 51 passes for 586 yards and four touchdowns in college, according to Sports-Reference.com.
Bill Lazor is excited to see James’ potential after a full year in Miami, according to Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel: “I love the way he runs routes. I love the way that he can be decisive and hit the hole fast. Without having a chance to see a guy run in preseason for you, a little bit of it is projection from what you see in practice.”
Monitor his progress and Miami’s personnel moves before trusting James with a reserve spot on a dynasty roster.
Damien Williams, RB
2 of 10
Williams is the only back on the roster who fits the description of the short-yardage complement the team desires alongside Lamar Miller. But the 2014 undrafted Oklahoma Sooner isn’t safe at No. 2, according to the Palm Beach Post’s Andrew Abramson on Twitter:
"If #Dolphins don't sign RB soon I think they'll draft one. Deep class & not sure if they're ready to rely on Damien Williams as the No. 2
— Andrew Abramson (@AbramsonPBP) April 1, 2015
"
Stevan Ridley isn't the answer. He visited Miami, but NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported he will sign with the New York Jets (h/t Jason Butt of CBSSports.com):
"Former #Patriots RB Stevan Ridley is signing with the #Jets, source said.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 8, 2015
"
According to Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel, the team reportedly won't re-sign Daniel Thomas. Steven Jackson is the highest-value veteran free agent who fits the bill, but the Dolphins aren’t showing any interest.
That leaves Miami the option to re-sign Knowshon Moreno (see next slide), find a suitable power back in the draft or stick with Williams, who logged 36 carries for 122 yards (3.4 yards per carry) and 21 receptions for 187 and a touchdown in 2014.
All the talk of the Dolphins still seeking an RB2 could certainly be motivating if Williams is so inclined. Pencil him in as Miller’s backup unless Miami takes a running back early in the draft.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 80 carries for 275 yards and two touchdowns plus 30 receptions for 300 yards.
Knowshon Moreno, RB
3 of 10
Moreno is expected to return or remain a free agent, depending on who you listen to.
Injuries are the biggest obstacle he faces this offseason and the reason the Dolphins will avoid re-signing him, according to James Walker of ESPN.com.
But Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post reports Dennis Hickey isn’t ruling out bringing the 27-year-old back as a complement to Lamar Miller.
The 2009 first-round pick of the Denver Broncos suffered a long list of knee injuries in his six-year career, stifling a promising output when healthy. Odds are Miami will look elsewhere, but Moreno will have limited value in the red zone and passing game if he returns.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 20 receptions for 100 combined touches, 400 yards and four touchdowns.
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Dion Sims, TE
4 of 10
Sims wasn’t the pairing expected to fulfill Bill Lazor’s vision of a two-tight end attack, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. But the 2013 fourth-rounder out of Michigan State will have to do after Charles Clay moved on to the Buffalo Bills:
"Dolphins are NOT matching 5-year, $38 million offer sheet that Buffalo gave TE Charles Clay, per sources. Bills have a new TE.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 19, 2015
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Joe Philbin isn’t concerned, praising Sims’ development after a Week 13 victory against the New York Jets, according to Chris Perkins of the Sun Sentinel.
"He's shown up in the passing game more. He's got very good hands, as [the Jets game] was evidence. He made a couple of catches that were critical in the ball game. I like the trend that he is on. The staff has a lot of confidence in him. His teammates have a lot of confidence in him. He's getting better.
"
Sims (ranked 31st) is a downgrade from Charles (14th) in every aspect besides pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s still a project heading into his third season who merits a speculative reserve spot at best on fantasy rosters.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 35 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns.
DeVante Parker, WR
5 of 10
Wide receiver is a tempting option for the Dolphins, currently slotted at No. 14 in the upcoming NFL draft. Mike Wallace (Minnesota Vikings), Brian Hartline (Cleveland Browns) and Brandon Gibson (New England Patriots) all split town, leaving a vacuum on the depth chart.
Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills are expected to occupy the top-two spots, but Parker could push both if Miami chooses offense in the first round.
An expert mock-draft roundup by The Phinsider’s Kevin Nogle of SB Nation found the Dolphins split evenly between wide receiver (33 percent) and cornerback (33 percent).
If the Louisville Cardinals standout is drafted before Miami goes on the clock, Dorial Green-Beckham of the Oklahoma Sooners, Breshad Perriman of the UCF Knights and Jaelen Strong of the Arizona State Sun Devils are the next most popular choices at wideout.
Parker—at 6’3”—is taller than any of Miami’s projected starters at wide receiver. His leaping and catching abilities are his strongest attributes, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com.
"Consistently plays with outstanding body control. Soft hands and elite concentration are his calling cards. Credited with just three drops since 2012.
Parker does his best work when the ball is in the air. He uses his height and wingspan to consistently snatch anything that comes his way.
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If the Dolphins take Parker at No. 14, he’d be an instant red-zone threat on their receiver corps.
Kenny Stills, WR
6 of 10
Miami picked up Stills in an opportunistic trade in March, dealing middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a 2014 third-rounder to the New Orleans Saints to acquire him, according to ProFootballTalk’s Twitter feed:
"Dolphins will get WR Kenny Stills, Saints get LB Dannell Ellerbe and Miami's third-rounder, per source.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) March 13, 2015"
The deal opened the Saints to scrutiny given Stills’ age and ability—the 2013 fifth-rounder out of Oklahoma led New Orleans in receptions (63) and yards (931) at just 22 years old. Meanwhile, Ellerbe missed the rest of his seventh season after a hip injury sidelined him in Week 1. Miami meant to cut the 29-year-old to free up cap space, according to Alex Marvez of Fox Sports.
Stills showed growth in his second season, perfecting new routes as he adjusted to the NFL, according to Nick Underhill of The New Orleans Advocate. He nearly doubled the receptions from his rookie year (32) while playing a more versatile role. Stills best demonstrated his pure speed in 2013, leading the league with 20 yards per catch.
He steps in as the younger, cheaper version of the 28-year-old Mike Wallace, whom Miami shipped to the Minnesota Vikings after acquiring Stills, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. The speedster will have to develop a Wallace-like nose for the end zone to make the transition complete, but he still merits flex appeal as a top-40 lock with tremendous upside.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 70 receptions for 900 yards and four touchdowns.
Jarvis Landry, WR
7 of 10
Landry, 22, now leads the youngest group of wide receivers in the NFL (23.3 on average), according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. He fits with Miami’s overall personnel moves to get younger, as noted by CBS Miami’s Joe Rose on Twitter:
"Fins counting on lots of young and inexperienced players to start or be key backups in 2015.most I can ever remember in my 35 yrs #noexcuses
— The Joe Rose Show (@JoeRoseShow) March 25, 2015"
Landry compiled excellent numbers in his rookie campaign, but his 84 catches for 758 yards and five touchdowns get lost in the shuffle of the outstanding wide receiver class of 2014. The second-rounder out of LSU finished ninth among his first-year contemporaries in fantasy scoring, 49th at the position overall.
The 5’11”, 202-pounder graded third among rookies—16th among wide receivers overall—according to PFF.
Landry should excel in 2015 because of the way Dennis Hickey and Mike Tannenbaum restructured the receiving corps. Kenny Stills poses a deep threat defenses must honor, and Jordan Cameron will demand attention in the middle. That leaves Landry the opportunity to produce out of the slot against someone other than the opponent’s top pass defender.
He projects to be a top-30 fantasy producer among wide receivers, jumping to the top 20 in points-per-reception leagues. Landry finished 14th in receptions at his position in 2014.
Don’t let this fish get away if he’s still around in the middle of your draft. (Let the record show I almost made it through this slideshow without any lame fishing puns…almost).
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 105 receptions, 900 yards and six touchdowns.
Jordan Cameron, TE
8 of 10
Cameron arrived in Miami as the first piece in Bill Lazor’s desired two-headed monster at tight end, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. Unfortunately the Dolphins couldn’t retain Charles Clay after Buffalo threw an unbeatable offer at the transitional-tagged free agent.
The Cleveland Browns left the 2013 Pro Bowler exposed to free agency because of repeated and prolonged absences due to concussions. But the Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero reported Cameron is not worried, according to Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk: “If it was a concern for me, I wouldn’t be here right now.”
Miami is concerned, however, as demonstrated in the details of Cameron’s two-year, $15 million contract. Only $1 million is guaranteed while $1.562 million is tied to week-by-week participation in 2015, according to Salguero.
The Dolphins would incur only a $2 million cap hit if Cameron is released prior to the second day of the 2016 league year. So 2015 is essentially a contract season if the four-year vet wants to earn the additional $9.5 million in the current deal.
Cameron is a legitimate receiving threat when healthy who finished tied for fifth in fantasy scoring among tight ends alongside Jason Witten. He figures to be a top bounce-back candidate in 2015, returning to the top 10 in fantasy scoring among tight ends.
Don’t gamble on Cameron early. Let him fall to the later rounds so your roster is padded with other starters in case he misses more significant time.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions, 850 yards and eight touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill, QB
9 of 10
Mike Tannenbaum is satisfied Tannehill is Miami’s franchise quarterback going forward, according to the Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero:
"Mike Tannenbaum on Ryan Tannehill: "We have the QB." Says team has told Ryan what they can do on longterm deal. 1-yr option still an option.
— Armando Salguero (@ArmandoSalguero) March 23, 2015"
The Dolphins will exercise the 2012 first-rounder’s fifth-year option they don't reach an agreement, locking up the converted wide receiver from Texas A&M through 2016.
Tannehill’s development is remarkable through just five seasons as a starting quarterback in college and the pros. He graded 11th among quarterbacks in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. He finished ninth in fantasy scoring, nestled between Tom Brady and Eli Manning at the bottom of the top 10.
The three-year veteran managed a 16.7-point increase in passer rating from 76.1 in his rookie year to 92.8 last season, good for 14th among qualified quarterbacks. He accomplished this behind the worst offensive line in football, according to PFF. Durability is not an issue since he hasn’t missed a start despite taking 139 career sacks.
Tannehill’s legs are underrated, finishing fifth in rushing among quarterbacks with 311 yards. His ability to rack up more valuable yardage on the ground is a boon to his fantasy prospects among his second-tier contemporaries: Matt Ryan (145), Tony Romo (61), Brady (57), Manning (31) and Ben Roethlisberger (27).
The early projections on Tannehill hold him at 14th among quarterbacks with little fluctuation, but he has the skills, health and supporting talent to crack the top 10 again in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,300 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions plus 300 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Lamar Miller, RB
10 of 10
Miller finally got the chance to shine after backing up Reggie Bush in 2012 and splitting carries with Daniel Thomas in 2013. The 2012 fourth-rounder from the Miami Hurricanes put together his first 1,000-yard season, totaling 1,099 on 216 carries.
He garnished the achievement with nine combined touchdowns and an additional 275 yards receiving on 38 receptions. Miller’s receiving game marked his only weakness in his breakout season, grading 55th out of 57 eligible running backs, according to PFF.
Miller excelled as a rusher, grading fifth behind only Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson and Le’Veon Bell.
He told reporters at the University of Miami’s pro day that he packed on seven extra pounds (now 225), according to Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post. It’s an adjustment to draw more of the workload, but former Dolphins running back and current Finsiders analyst Troy Stradford told Abramson swelling up a speedster could backfire.
"“Did he keep his football speed?”
“You can bulk up and still run a fast time vs. the clock but can you really still play at that fast speed with the extra weight. There is a difference.”
"
The three-year veteran should at least maintain the production enjoyed in 2014 save for Miami drafting another speed back in the early rounds in an unorthodox platoon with Miller.
He’s currently ranked outside the top 10, according to the fantasy draft experts, but there’s no reason to believe Miller will regress with fresh legs and familiarity in Bill Lazor’s scheme. He will be an absolute steal if he falls into the third or fourth round as projected.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 1,200 yards rushing, 40 catches for 300 yards receiving and 11 combined touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, fantasy stats provided by ESPN.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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