Can Dallas Mavericks Catch Fire in the NBA Playoffs One More Time?
Lost in the shuffle of an all-time competitive Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks have failed to warrant much mention.
The 46-31 Mavericks have been slumping and are not showcasing the form of a team posed for a long postseason run. They have been hit by the injury bug at a bad time, and they are being forced to nurse their wounds instead of developing chemistry on the court.
Although Rajon Rondo returned to the lineup to help the Mavs secure the seventh seed in Wednesday's 107-104 victory over the Phoenix Suns, Chandler Parsons is still out with a knee injury. Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle knows that his team is racing against the clock at this point and has his fingers crossed.
"These guys are working hard; they're in the training room multiple times a day; they're bringing ice machines home," Carlisle said, according to Joe Trahan of WFAA.com. "We just gotta keep tabs on it and hope that Mother Nature is kind."
With luck in the injury department, Dallas will hope to recreate some of the magical moments from its feisty first-round postseason exit last year.
The Mavs managed to give the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs a scare, despite being an eighth-seeded underdog. Even though Dallas went through a substantial roster overhaul last summer, it maintains some of the key components that made it a tough matchup.
Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league, and he has proven that several times in the playoffs. Few are as good as he is at making adjustments in a best-of-seven series.
Dallas' core is similar to that of last year, and the roster looks even stronger on paper.
Dirk Nowitzki is a year older, but he usually steps up in big postseason moments as well.
The Mavs upgraded on the wing with Parsons, replaced Shawn Marion with a younger defensive ace in Al-Farouq Aminu, acquired one of the best rim protectors in the league in Tyson Chandler and added Rondo through a midseason trade.
Theoretically, this year's team should be a significantly bigger threat than the group that had to scrap just to squeeze into the playoffs last year (finishing just one game ahead of the ninth-seeded Phoenix Suns). Perhaps that could be the case, but recent signs suggest otherwise.
The Mavericks might have been awful defensively last season (22nd in defensive efficiency), but they were the third-best offensive team in the league, scoring 109 points per 100 possessions, per ESPN's Hollinger Team Statistics. That's hardly a recipe for title contention, but any team that can score at such a rate is a nuisance to deal with and can catch fire in a playoff series.
Despite adding a rim protector in Chandler, the Mavs continued along the same path earlier this season. Dallas' offense was an unstoppable force, but the team chose to sacrifice some of that by trading for Rondo, hoping the point guard would add sturdiness to a shaky perimeter defense.
While it was a worthy gamble, it hasn't quite worked out. Dallas ranks 19th and 21st in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, since the All-Star break, per NBA.com media stats. The Mavs have been outscored by four points per 100 possessions in that time frame, ranking 23rd in net rating.
It's hard to improve when key players are in and out of the lineup due to injury, but things haven't looked great even when Dallas has been healthy.
The Mavericks' starting lineup is actually being outscored by 3.8 points per 100 possessions, and only seven five-man units in the entire league have logged more minutes, per NBA.com. That group has shown flashes of brilliance offensively, but it looked inexplicably terrible at times. The ball sticks too much down the stretch of games, and that won't fly in the playoffs.
Considering present circumstances, it's highly improbable that this Dallas team can make a serious title run. But it's not entirely impossible to win a series or two.
If Dallas can get healthy in time, there are winnable playoff series out there. An unfortunate injury to a top contender and the right combination of matchups would give almost every team in the West a shot at a deep run.
If the playoffs were to start today, the Mavs would go up against the Houston Rockets, an opponent that is also limping into the postseason with its fair share of ailments, and one the Mavs are comfortable going up against.
Dallas might have lost its season series to Houston 3-1, but each of those games took place on the second night of a back-to-back for the Mavs.
The Mavericks feel comfortable against the Rockets, so that would be a relatively even matchup. Moving past the likes of the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors or Spurs would be a taller challenge, and it's unlikely Dallas has enough in the tank to upset any of those teams.
Final Thoughts
The Mavs are more likely to flame out in the playoffs than make a deep run. That's a scary proposition for the franchise.
Most title-contending teams in the West have either already locked up their stars on long-term deals or are expected to do so this summer. Marc Gasol is unlikely to leave his situation in Memphis, and the same goes for LaMarcus Aldridge and the Portland Trail Blazers. Dallas lacks that type of long-term assurance with its own core.
Nowitzki, Harris and Parsons are the only players with fully guaranteed contracts for next season. In the case of a quick postseason elimination, many faces in Dallas' locker room could change over the summer.
Monta Ellis (who has a player option for next season, per hoopshype.com), Chandler and Rondo can all enter unrestricted free agency this summer. If the Mavs realize this core simply isn't good enough to compete with the elite in the West, a major turnover wouldn't be out of the question.
The Mavericks would have to make some agonizing decisions.
Do they bite the bullet and re-sign Rondo, or do they acknowledge the failed experiment and let the heavy investment (they gave up Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder and two draft picks for him) go to waste?
How much can Dallas realistically pay Chandler and Ellis while maintaining enough flexibility to reload and improve the roster?
Those are decisions the Mavs front office would feel better about taking if the team had a positive showing in the postseason. Perhaps a competitive second-round exit would offer enough encouragement that this group can be molded into something special.
Dallas has certainly provided surprises from an underdog status before, and a lot is at stake this time around. But the West is fierce, and it would take something special for the Mavs to pull off some upsets in this year's playoffs.
Salary and contract information are courtesy of hoopshype.com
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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