Updated 2014-15 NBA Playoff Picture

This late in the regular season, NBA teams tend to fall into one of these five overarching categories: 

1. The conference favorite (a self-explanatory category, though there's a slight twist in the East)
2. The playoff locks (teams you can write into the postseason field with a Sharpie)
3. The bubble favorites (squads that aren't guaranteed admission into the playoffs but are predicted to eventually get there)
4. The popped bubbles (organizations with at least a decent chance to get in but are predicted to finish in the lottery)
5. The rest (the fuhgeddaboutit group)

We're not concerned with the final group here, but let's get some clarity on each of the first four for each conference. 

After all, there are still plenty of moving pieces in these compelling races. The final spots in each half of the NBA are far from determined, and the order can still be shuffled rather dramatically between those slots in the field and the No. 1 teams. 

Will the Houston Rockets catch the Memphis Grizzlies for No. 2 in the West? Will Russell Westbrook lead his Oklahoma City Thunder into the playoffs, or will Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans catch him? Which sub-.500 teams will sneak into the Eastern field?

Those are but a few of the many enduring questions. 

The Eastern Favorites

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1. Atlanta Hawks (55-17)

At this point, the Atlanta Hawks are a mathematical lock for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Rather than asking whether they'll finish at the top of the heap, since we officially know the answer to that question, we should instead wonder if this team can wind up with the best record in franchise history. Right now, that honor belongs to the 1993-94 and 1986-87 squads, both of which finished with 57 victories. 

All it's going to take is earning three more wins, and there will be a new standard-bearer in the Peach State. 

Seems like another lock, right?

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (47-27)

Why are the Cavs also listed as favorites in the East? 

Although they're not going to end up with the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the postseason, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Cleveland bunch have asserted themselves as the best team in their half of the NBA. They're only a few games up on the Chicago Bulls, but they're actually playing high-quality basketball, virtually guaranteeing them the No. 2 spot.

In March, the Cavs have posted a 118.6 offensive rating and a 106.7 defensive rating, per Basketball-Reference.com. For perspective, the Los Angeles Clippers are scoring the most points per 100 possessions on the season as a whole, and they're "only" at 112. This Cleveland offense is flat-out rolling, reaching those historical levels some expected them to hit heading into the year.

"Right about now you can make a case that the Cleveland Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA," Chris Haynes wrote for Cleveland.com after the Cavs' 111-89 shellacking of the Memphis Grizzlies while on the road. "An NBA-best 28-6 record since Jan. 15 is plenty enough sample size to make one conclusion: The Cavaliers are a bad (not in the literal sense) team."

Bad enough that despite not being in true contention for the No. 1 seed, they still have to be listed among the Eastern favorites. 

Sorting Through the Eastern Locks

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3. Chicago Bulls (44-29)

When healthy, the Chicago Bulls are not to be trifled with. 

Derrick Rose may still return before the end of the season, adding yet another element to an already dangerous team. After all, Tom Thibodeau has sparked some success by running the offense through Joakim Noah once more, and it's not as if Pau Gasol is fading down the stretch. Plus, Jimmy Butler is still on the verge of superstardom, while Nikola Mirotic has been breaking out in a hurry rather than hitting the rookie wall that plagues so many first-year players. 

The Bulls have begun creating space between themselves and the rest of the pack fighting for the No. 3 spot in the East, and they aren't going to stop anytime soon. Not if this surging rookie has anything to say about it. 

Though it may be hard to catch Andrew Wiggins and Nerlens Noel in the Rookie of the Year race, Mirotic certainly deserves credit for averaging 20.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.6 assists in March. With that thrown into the mix of established players, it shouldn't be at all surprising that the Chicago offense is creeping up the leaderboard.

4. Washington Wizards (41-32)

The Washington Wizards should be thankful they're in the East, because their inability to get the most out of the massive amounts of talent on the roster would look much worse if they weren't still competing for home-court advantage. 

John Wall has been rather inconsistent for a struggling offense, while Bradley Beal hasn't had as much of an impact as the Wizards probably hoped heading into the year. Throw in a shooting slump for Nene, and it's easy to see why the D.C. residents have slogged their way to a 7-6 record in March, with four consecutive losses leading up to their Friday night victory in double overtime against the Charlotte Hornets.

One more reason? Well, let's just say that ESPN.com's forecast panel recently ranked Randy Wittman No. 26 among the current NBA coaches, ahead of only two interims (James Borrego and Melvin Hunt), Byron Scott and Derek Fisher. 

Draw your own conclusions.

5. Toronto Raptors (43-30)

Things haven't been pretty north of the border. 

Not only has the defense completely fallen apart, as DeMar DeRozan has struggled on both ends instead of boosting this team into the next echelon since returning earlier this season, but the losses are piling up quickly. In March, the Toronto Raptors had lost eight times in 13 contests heading into a successful affair with the Los Angeles Lakers, and it gets worse if we go back even further. 

Before opening the current month with a win against the Philadelphia 76ers, the Raptors were on a five-game skid. Yes, that means they're 6-8 over their last 14 appearances, which makes it rather difficult to remain in promising position. 

6. Milwaukee Bucks (36-36)

Essentially replacing Brandon Knight with Michael Carter-Williams may end up being good for the Milwaukee Bucks in the future. Not only is the Syracuse product a cheaper option, but he has the defensive upside to become a stronger two-way player under Jason Kidd's tutelage. 

But right now? Not so much. 

Since joining the Bucks, Carter-Williams has hit only 39.3 percent of his shots from the field and 11.1 percent of his downtown tries. He's also turning the ball over 3.3 times per contest, and his player efficiency rating is a below-average 14.2.

The Bucks are still strong enough to be considered playoff locks because of their solid defense. But with the point guard downgrade—again, in the present—they aren't exactly doing much more than that, and finishing above .500 will be a struggle. 

Eastern Bubble Favorites

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7. Miami Heat (33-39)

At full strength—well, as close as they can get without Chris Bosh—the Miami Heat are still an incredibly dangerous team. 

Dwyane Wade is playing like a star again, showing off some old-man moves and dominating opponents on both ends of the court. Hassan Whiteside continues to make a big impact—especially on the defensive side and when cleaning the boards. Goran Dragic is starting to fit in nicely, and players like Luol Deng can't simply be forgotten. 

In March, the Heat have scored 105.7 points per 100 possessions. Were that number maintained throughout the entire season, it would rank No. 15 throughout the Association. 

And Miami has been even better on defense, especially when Whiteside is on the floor. Over the same time frame, the defending Eastern Conference champions have allowed 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and that would rank No. 5.

Playing like you're a top-half team on each side of the ball? That's a playoff recipe in a conference that could boast as many as three playoff squads with sub-.500 records. 

8. Indiana Pacers (31-41)

This is about more than Paul George. 

We're not entirely sure when he'll be back, as Larry Bird and Frank Vogel have given conflicting timetables. Per Candace Buckner of IndyStar.com, "On the ever-evolving Paul George comeback, Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird made several comments to an ESPN reporter, including: 'I think he's cleared by the doctors to play.' Later, Vogel offered the opposite: 'There's a lot of layers to that, so he hasn't been cleared to play for us.'"

But regardless of whether George returns this season (however likely it seems he will), the Pacers still have enough firepower to sneak into the playoffs and become a tough out for a top seed, even if they entered Friday night's slate of games slightly outside the picture. 

Though a six-game losing streak dampened the drama of the extreme turnaround, the Pacers have still been quite good in March. Even with that skid factored in, they're outscoring opponents by 2.6 points per 100 possessions this month. Per NBA.com, they actually have the third-best net rating in the conference during March, as well as the seventh-best in the entire league. 

George's return would be huge, especially for after the Pacers advance past the regular season. But Indiana doesn't need him to earn one of the top eight spots in its half of the Association.

Popped Bubbles in the East

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Boston Celtics (32-40)

Next year, definitely. This year, not so much. 

The Boston Celtics have some intriguing young pieces for the future, and they're technically still in the hunt for one of the eight spots, especially as they went into Friday night with a claim on the final one. But players like Marcus Smart and Jared Sullinger will be even more helpful next year. 

Sullinger in particular, as he's been out for the season since suffering a left metatarsal stress fracture in the middle of February. 

Brooklyn Nets (31-40)

The veteran-laden Brooklyn Nets are definitely still in the picture, but that shouldn't last for too much longer. While the bubble favorites are trending in the right direction, the same simply can't be said for this squad. 

Granted, they recently beat the Indiana Pacers one night after a triple-overtime victory against the Milwaukee Bucks. But if both those squads even get into the field, those are still rare victories against playoff teams for the Nets, who have only a couple wins over postseason squads since a surprising outing against the Golden State Warriors to open March.

This month, the Nets were still being outscored by 5.4 points per 100 possessions before a Friday night victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that's not exactly a good thing. 

Charlotte Hornets (30-41)

It would be different if the Charlotte Hornets figured out how to score.

But Lance Stephenson is still struggling, Al Jefferson hasn't been himself for much of the season and the reincorporation of Kemba Walker hasn't been all that seamless, seeing as his shot has almost completely refused to fall since he returned to the lineup.  Even with those three clicking, the Hornets would've been limited offensively.

With all three off their games, though, it's not pretty. 

The Western Favorite

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1. Golden State Warriors (59-13)

Let's not worry about whether the Golden State Warriors are going to have the top seed in the Western Conference. Unless everyone on the roster simultaneously tears both ACLs, that's going to happen. 

Instead, we should be concerned with the Dubs' place among the best teams in NBA history. 

Heading into their Friday night showdown with the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State was leading the league in defensive rating (100.7) and trailing only the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers in offensive rating (111.5). But let's take things one step further by comparing those marks to the NBA average (105.5) and combining the two to form TeamRtng+. 

Golden State's TeamRtng+ is a scorching 105.23, and that absolutely resonates on a historical scale. After all, if that mark holds for the rest of the season, here's how it would stack up with the 10 best in the Association's history: 

1. 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (106.38)
2. 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (105.71)
3. 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks (105.65)
4. 2007-08 Boston Celtics (105.61)
5. 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers (105.52)
6. 1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks (105.26)
7. 2014-15 Golden State Warriors (105.23)
8. 1991-92 Chicago Bulls (105.14)
9. 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (104.77)
10. 2012-13 Oklahoma City Thunder (104.68)

Sorting Through the Western Locks

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2. Houston Rockets (49-23)

It's all about the Beard in Houston, but let's not overlook the impact Dwight Howard can make. 

The recently returned big man is an incredible asset, even if he's going to be fundamentally changing how he approaches the game. But after all the success the Rockets found with James Harden essentially serving as a one-man show on many possessions, Howard has to be willing to put aside his ego and serve as a complementary piece for the first time in his career. 

If he does, he can be quite the X-factor. Lest we forget, the Rockets have scored an extra two points per 100 possessions this season when No. 12 plays, and they've simultaneously allowed 3.7 fewer over the same stretch.

3. Memphis Grizzlies (50-23)

The Memphis Grizzlies have flown under the radar for much of the season, but they've played below their own expectations in March. After their Friday night contest against the conference leaders, they've won just eight times in 15 tries, and some of the losses came in embarrassing fashion. 

They just haven't been playing like true contenders lately, even if their overall body of work screams otherwise. 

According to my FATS projections (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here), the Grizz have played like a 43-win team in March. That's not good enough to hold onto their slim lead on No. 2, but at least they won't fall too far if that level of play continues. 

4. Los Angeles Clippers (48-25)

It's amazing what the return of injured stars can do for a team's ceiling.

The Los Angeles Clippers survived while Blake Griffin was recovering from surgery to get rid of the staph infection in his elbow, but Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan can't carry this squad up nearly as high as they can when joined by their All-Star running mate. It's the Dwight Howard argument all over again, except the difference is even more glaring.

Though the team plays slightly better on defense when Griffin is on the bench, LAC outscores the opposition by only 0.5 points per 100 possessions without this Oklahoma product. When he plays, that number skyrockets to 11.2.

If that stays true to form, it shouldn't be too hard for the Clippers to post the fourth-best record in the conference, even if divisions will still prevent them from earning the No. 4 seed.

5. San Antonio Spurs (46-26)

Don't bet against the San Antonio Spurs at this point in the season. 

Just don't.

The Spurs entered Friday as one of three teams in the conference with 45 wins under their belt, but they should emerge from that pack by the end of the season. Moving up any higher will be rather difficult, though, as the teams ahead have an edge in the standings with few games left to play. And in some cases, they're only improving.

Nonetheless, the Spurs are going to be dangerous no matter what seed they eventually earn.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (46-25)

Injuries will make it rather difficult for the Portland Trail Blazers to earn a top-four record in the West, even if they'll ultimately get the No. 4 seed by virtue of playing in the weaker Northwest Division. 

Nicolas Batum is dealing with a back injury that's kept him out of multiple games in recent days. Chris Kaman's shoulder is bugging him. Wesley Matthews is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles. There's no telling what's up with LaMarcus Aldridge's fingers, as they seem remarkably prone to injuries. 

Portland is a playoff lock, but it's still limping through the end of the regular season. 

7. Dallas Mavericks (45-28)

The Dallas Mavericks are still trying to figure out exactly who they are. 

A blowout loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers was followed up by three straight wins, including one each against the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder. That seemed like good news for a team that had struggled so much in the last few weeks, but then the Mavs laid an egg against the Memphis Grizzlies and lost to the Phoenix Suns. 

Now, a home-and-away set against the San Antonio Spurs saw them post a strong win at home and then a loss on the road after an embarrassingly slow start. 

It's hard to have any confidence in Dallas stringing together enough wins to jump any of the other playoff locks, even if it still deserves to be included in that category. 

Western Bubble Favorites

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8. Oklahoma City Thunder (41-31)

The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't quite locks yet, especially without both Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant in the lineup next to Russell Westbrook. But they're drawing awfully close to that status as the ridiculously athletic point guard helps solidify his MVP candidacy with one big game after another.

In March, Westbrook is now averaging a jaw-dropping 30.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 2.7 steals and 0.5 blocks. Sure, he's shooting only 40.8 percent from the field, but he's getting to the charity stripe with incredible frequency and knocking down plenty of threes, so we can't exactly decry his efficiency. The same is true for his gaudy turnover figures, as he's so heavily involved that the cough-ups are more understandable. 

And the Thunder have gone as he's gone. 

They haven't lost to a likely lottery team since a Feb. 26 contest against the Phoenix Suns, and they haven't fallen to a team with no enduring playoff hope since a Jan. 28 loss to the New York Knicks. This squad is just on fire right now, posting a 9-4 record thus far in March. 

Unless something drastically changes during the remaining portion of the season, or the injury bug gets to Westbrook too, the Thunder are going to be one of the more dangerous No. 8 seeds in recent history. 

Popped Bubbles in the West

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New Orleans Pelicans (38-34)

It's a shame the New Orleans Pelicans have suffered so many injuries this season, because the world deserves to see what Anthony Davis can do in the playoffs. Plus, there's the ridiculous notion that he can't be an MVP candidate if his team isn't in the field, which thoroughly ignores the level of impact he's had on this squad. 

Regardless, the Pelicans aren't going to get over the hump this year. Not with Davis missing random games here and there for various maladies. Not with Jrue Holiday still recovering from his stress reaction. Not with Ryan Anderson's sprained MCL keeping him out of action. 

There's too much working against NOLA, even though the team can take advantage of a fairly easy closing schedule. 

Phoenix Suns (38-35)

Kudos to the Phoenix Suns for fighting their way back into the playoff battle, ignoring that they'd been largely written off after trading away Goran Dragic and struggling to keep pace with the backcourt combination of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. 

But after steadily taking care of business against most weaker opponents and earning a few surprising wins, they're only a few games back of the Oklahoma City Thunder, even with Knight injured. Unfortunately, that's a bit too many to be behind at this stage of the season, but they're at least going to function as a team that finished the season within sniffing distance of the West's final spot. 

Given the burgeoning games of the young guards, that's certainly reason for everyone in the desert-based organization to give an ear-to-ear grin. When Knight is healthy and continuing upon his upward trajectory, assuming he stays in Arizona, they'll be in even better shape.

Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into March 27's games. All records are current through March 27.