The Top Free-Agent Target for Each NBA Lottery-Bound Team
Free-agent fantasies are nothing if not pivotal parts of the NBA offseason—especially for the league's lottery outfits, who have little else to plan for as their regular season nears a fruitless end.
Let's indulge that whimsy.
Preparing for the draft is a top priority for lottery teams, but selecting an unproven prospect, however promising, seldom swings fortunes as drastically as successful free-agency ventures. Even for the worst of the worst, better days are just a dream scenario away.
Most aspects of feasibility will be thrown out the window from here on. Ideal players needn't be patented flight risks. Free agents unlikely to leave current locales—Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, restricted free agents, etc.—are fair game.
Exceptions to this rule come in the form of those named LeBron James, as well as could-be free agents with player (Roy Hibbert) and team options (Jamal Crawford) who are unlikely to reach the open market at all.
Squad-specific choices are limited by spending power. The NBA's projected salary cap for next season is $66.5 million, so teams must be—or have the ability to get—well under that apron if they're going to chase expensive talent. In the event they can't (Hi, Brooklyn Nets), it will be reflected in the suggested fit.
Players will only be selected once because, well, it's more fun that way. Teams must also have a need for these players. The Utah Jazz will not offer DeAndre Jordan a max contract, because Rudy Gobert is the jealous type. And since the New York Knicks like to go last, the forthcoming parties will be listed in order of descending winning percentage.
Everyone on the same page? Good. Let's get whimsical.
The Could-Be, But-Probably-Won't-Be Lottery Teams
1 of 15
Boston Celtics: Tyson Chandler, C, Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
Although the Celtics are equipped to spend like whoa in free agency, they're still in the thick of an extensive rebuilding period, so they have little incentive to burn through coveted cap space.
Chandler makes sense for them as a big who can come in and provide defense along with a steadying locker room voice. Neither Kelly Olynyk nor Jared Sullinger protects the rim very well, and the Celtics don't yet have a double-double machine.
Best of all, Chandler isn't about to command a max contract like DeAndre Jordan. He offers an immediate impact without the financial gut punch, freeing Boston up to remain serious players on the trade and free-agent markets leading into 2016.
Convincing him to leave the title-contending Dallas Mavericks for a rebuilding team will likely be an issue, but the Celtics are hunting for playoff berths during their transition. Any talent added to what they already have will make them an Eastern Conference dark horse. That's a situation veterans like Chandler can join without flinching.
Miami Heat: Gerald Green, SG/SF, UFA
Everything about the Heat's financial plate is weird. Depending on how many potential free agents opt out—Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade—they will either have some cap space or be approaching the luxury-tax line.
Again, weird.
It's best to keep things simple since the Heat will still have to account for lingering cap holds even if all of their free-agents-to-be opt out. Hassan Whiteside will need to be paid, too.
That brings us to Green.
Floor spacing has been an issue all season for the Heat. They don't shoot the three-ball particularly well, and their lanes are often clogged when Whiteside shares the floor with another big and Wade.
Green can orbit the three-point line, serving as a spot-up gunner, while helping shore up a perimeter defense that's allowing the league's eighth-highest three-point clip.
This is all provided the Heat can afford him. He's due for a raise from the $3.5 million he's making now, and once more, Miami's books are weird.
Dare to dream.
Phoenix Suns: Kawhi Leonard, SF, Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
2 of 15
Kawhi Leonard is more likely to be caught on video telling Gregg Popovich a knock-knock joke than he is to leave the San Antonio Spurs. He is a restricted free agent, and they have the right to match any offer he receives.
The Phoenix Suns might as well make that a max offer.
As they try to recover from last offseason's botched backcourt spree, they need players with two-way tools. Their defense is a middle-rung fixture, their rebounding percentages are sorry, and they need to inject more ball movement into the offense.
Leonard addresses every possible need. The Spurs play like the league's best defense with him on the floor, he puts in three-pointers off the catch at respectable rates, he has a better rebounding percentage than Serge Ibaka and Blake Griffin, and his experience within San Antonio's passing-packed offense makes him a great fit for a team still trying to perfect its system.
Money is no object here. Though the Suns have free agents of their own to worry about (Brandon Knight, Brandan Wright, Gerald Green), they have enough wiggle room to toss Leonard max money, all while hoping against hope the Spurs are feeling cheap.
New Orleans Pelicans: DeAndre Jordan, C, UFA
3 of 15
Jordan is like a supercharged version of Omer Asik, who will also be a free agent.
Anthony Davis will take him.
Place these two alongside each other, and the New Orleans Pelicans instantly become the NBA's best shot-blocking team—an area in which they're already tied for first. More importantly, they'll have the opportunity to field something better than a bottom-seven defense.
Having Jordan to protect the rim and grab rebounds allows Davis to focus solely on salvaging New Orleans' myriad blown perimeter assignments. That's something he already does, but it's an easier task with a quicker center behind him.
Sure, this might seem like a lateral move since Asik is already in tow. But Jordan ranks in the top 10 of block percentage, while Asik fails to crack the top 55. The former is also grabbing more than 24 percent of all available rebounds, despite averaging far more than 25 minutes per game. Dennis Rodman is the only other player to do that before.
No matter what happens, New Orleans will have to pay a big man this summer. Asik is a 7-footer who can put one foot in front of the other, so he'll command top dollar. Jordan is the far better option if the Pelicans are looking to climb that playoff mountain—even after considering they'll need to unload at least one player to legitimately chase him.
Utah Jazz: Brandan Wright, PF/C, UFA
4 of 15
It seems irrational to call Wright, a career role player, the ideal free-agent fit for a lottery lock like the Jazz. But they are no ordinary lottery lock.
Owners of the league's top defense and fourth-best record since the trade deadline, the Jazz already have an internal core in place. Their rotation is basically set...for the next five to seven years.
Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert are all keepers. The only real question lies at point guard, where Trey Burke and Dante Exum, two top-10 picks, are still trying to figure things out.
That puts the Jazz in phenomenal shape. The fear may be that they turn into last season's Suns, plateauing now and overestimating themselves heading into 2015-16. But they are not last season's Suns. Their core has more room to grow than that foundation from Phoenix. It's all about filling out the roster now.
Wright can be a pseudo Enes Kanter replacement. He's not the same scorer, but he's equally devastating off pick-and-rolls and blocks shots in volume, making him more than capable of spelling Gobert and Favors. And that, in turn, means he's more than deserving of Utah's undivided interest.
Charlotte Hornets: Wesley Matthews, SG, UFA
5 of 15
Wesley Matthews' season is over after suffering a torn left Achilles, but the Charlotte Hornets should have no reservations about giving him a long, hard look over the summer.
At only 28, the latest setback doesn't figure to be a career-crippler. Matthews' offensive game and defensive integrity are not prided on explosion or abrupt lateral moves. He's deadly off the catch on the offensive end, and his stingy defense is the offshoot of superior anticipation.
Charlotte needs what he does. Everything he does.
Defensively, the Hornets are fine, once again hovering around top-seven territory. But their offense is a categorical catastrophe. They are the Association's worst three-point-shooting team, completely devoid of a strong spot-up presence on the perimeter; Matthews puts in 38.8 percent of his long balls, including 38.5 percent of his standstill bombs.
Even with Al Jefferson (player option) potentially entering free agency, the Hornets will need to make room. Both Marvin Williams and Gerald Henderson (player option) will be on expiring deals and easy to move. Using a future first-round pick to pawn Lance Stephenson off on another team remains an option as well.
Whatever the cost, the Hornets must create enough flexibility to make a big offensive splash. And Matthews, even after his injury, remains schooled in the art of spattering cannonballs.
Indiana Pacers: Danny Green, SG/SF, UFA
6 of 15
Assuming Roy Hibbert exercises his player option for 2015-16, the Indiana Pacers will be capped out, forcing them to think small in free agency. Danny Green is the biggest version of small-scale thinking out there.
Paul George's return should help the Pacers' sputtering, bottom-five offense, but they still need an added punch at shooting guard after being killed on the wing this season. Their net player efficiency rating at the 2 is a minus-1.7, according to 82games.com, so heavy doses of Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles aren't cutting it.
Green, for his part, has plenty of two-way tricks in his bag. He's functioning on one of the league's top defensive teams, and he thrives as an off-ball weapon, drilling 43.5 percent of his spot-up treys. Indiana finds nylon just 35.9 percent of the time as a team in those situations.
With a healthy George, the Pacers are a mostly polished product. They only need to put the finishing touches on a ready-made core. Aside from acquiring another point guard, landing Green would just about do it.
Brooklyn Nets: Darrell Arthur, PF, UFA
7 of 15
This is what having no cap space looks like.
If Brook Lopez, Markel Brown and Cory Jefferson each return (likely on all fronts), the Nets will have more than $78 million in salary commitments on the ledger. That's before factoring in Thaddeus Young's $9.7 million player option, which he will probably decline. And that means the Nets will be in the market for some kind of cheap forward.
Really, they'll be in the market for some kind of anything. They're that blah—an expensive spoonful of mediocre.
Signing anyone becomes a taxing endeavor—both mentally and financially—when being restricted to the umpteenth degree. As a modest-scoring, low-rebounding power forward, Arthur may even be out of the Nets' price range.
Still, they have to try, if only because Arthur shoots threes (albeit not well) and the rangy Mirza Teletovic could be on his way out.
Denver Nuggets: Paul Millsap, PF, UFA
8 of 15
A new dawn is upon the Denver Nuggets. It looks a lot like the old dawn they decided to run from by replacing George Karl with Brian Shaw.
Since canning Shaw, the Nuggets are returning to yesterday's roots to spectacular consequence, running even faster and spacing the floor with smaller, mismatch-inciting lineups.
Paul Millsap would look good within such a dynamic. We know this because he looks great on the spacing-merry Atlanta Hawks. He defends, rebounds, shoots threes, passes and is one of just two players averaging at least 17 points, 7.5 boards, three assists and 1.5 steals. The other: DeMarcus Cousins.
Such versatility makes him a great get for any team interested in, you know, winning. Denver is just special because of what it's trying to accomplish long term, with a faster-paced, offensively vibrant core.
Now, the Nuggets are admittedly in a weird place financially. But even after accounting for Kenneth Faried's raise and Wilson Chandler's team option, they'll have enough room to manufacture $10-plus million in cap space.
Making a competitive play for Millsap could, in theory, strictly be a matter of unloading J.J. Hickson's expiring deal—collateral damage that's easy to achieve and, given the potential prize, even easier to stomach.
Detroit Pistons: Draymond Green, SF/PF, RFA
9 of 15
Draymond Green and the Detroit Pistons are already thinking about each other.
Sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski that the third-year do-everything forward is interested in "pursuing an offer sheet" from the Pistons in restricted free agency. The Golden State Warriors are expected to match any offer he receives, possibly rendering such interest null and void. But this is a theoretical pairing that makes sense all around.
Chasing Green will cost a pretty penny, but the Pistons will be flush with cap space so long as they don't prematurely overpay Greg Monroe and Reggie Jackson, and they have a need for anyone who can defend every position and knock down threes. (Then again, who doesn't?)
The chief concern is whether Green is merely a product of the Warriors' system. As one anonymous scout told Bleacher Report's Howard Beck:
"He's one of those guys who's a product of the system. I'd be very uncomfortable paying him zillions of dollars. He is situationally [valuable]. He's got two great point guards, he gets a lot of surplus stuff from them. He's a good rebounder. He's a complementary guy. But he's going to get paid like a second or third option, probably. I would be cautious, if I'm any team other than Golden State. I'm not sure his talents are totally transferable.
"
Individual defense is universally transferable. Opponents are shooting more than seven percentage points below their season average when being guarded by Green, and that won't change.
Like Warriors coach Steve Kerr, Pistons head honcho Stan Van Gundy is wont to use his stretch forwards as spot-up assassins. More than 42 percent of Green's shot opportunities come as standstill threes, of which he's hitting 35.1 percent. That style is transferable, too.
Thus, with regards to Detroit, so is Green.
Sacramento Kings: Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, UFA (Player Option)
10 of 15
Few things would be more shocking than Young returning to the Nets next season. He owns a player option, doesn't figure into Brooklyn's future and will command an annual salary that rivals or exceeds his $9.2 million earnings this season.
Enter the Sacramento Kings. They desperately need an upgrade at power forward, where Carl Landry and Jason Thompson hold the long-term appeal of soggy rice.
Rival 4s are outperforming Sacramento's thin corps by 3.4 PER points every 48 minutes, according to 82games.com. That deficit is only exceeded at shooting guard (minus-6.6), where the Kings at least have two youngsters in Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas to evaluate.
Young adds a little bit of everything. He is built to play within George Karl's fast-moving offense and has posted well-rounded stat lines at every turn. Even now, after splitting time with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Nets, he's one of just seven players averaging at least 14 points, five rebounds, two assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 45 percent or better.
Plugging him beside Darren Collison (when healthy), Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins is the easy part, though. The Kings have more than $52 million in guaranteed salary on next season's books, putting them right in Young's wheelhouse...for now.
Those commitments can and will increase, so some cost-cutting will inevitably be necessary. Nevertheless, they're right there now, on the verge of affording an athletic jack of all trades they can most certainly put to good use.
Orlando Magic: LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, UFA
11 of 15
Don't kill the dream. Not yet. It's too pretty.
Aldridge would be a fantastic fit with the Orlando Magic. He can play in any kind of system—fast-paced, half-court-oriented or otherwise—and has the jump shot to complement Nikola Vucevic's and Channing Frye's inside-out games.
Taking a shot at him, of course, goes against the notion that Orlando is methodically rebuilding. But Aldridge is a superstar with a skill set that ages well (see: Tim Duncan), and his presence immediately vaults the already-talented Magic into playoff contention, if not the championship conversation. Seriously.
Consider the following list of players who have averaged at least 20 points and eight rebounds in each of the last five seasons:
- LaMarcus Aldridge
That's it.
Aaron Gordon's presence makes this a wonky ambition in some respects, but he's raw talent without a distinctly refined skill set. It's going to take time for him to develop, and playing behind Aldridge is a nice way of accelerating that process.
Finding minutes for Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson admittedly becomes next to impossible with Aldridge in the fold. Then again, neither Harkless nor Nicholson plays much now. Orlando can flip them for low-end draft picks if this pipe dream were to come true.
Armed with plenty of cap space, the Magic need only resist the urge to overpay Tobias Harris and bring back Ben Gordon if they want to offer Aldridge a max deal. After that, this becomes a matter of hoping Aldridge, despite what he says, is ready to leave the Portland Trail Blazers.
Los Angeles Lakers: Kevin Love, PF, UFA (Player Option)
12 of 15
There is no need to de-board this train.
Kevin Love has looked utterly uncomfortable at times as the Cleveland Cavaliers' third fiddle. His shooting percentages have plummeted right along with his usage rate, and he's taking longer than Chris Bosh ever did to complement the ball-dominant stylings of his two superstar teammates.
None of which means Love is wholly unhappy and planning his exit. His public sentiments suggest just the opposite.
Said Love of his upcoming free agency while appearing on The Dan Patrick Show: "I plan on being a Cavalier either way."
On top of that sound bite, Love has publicly ruled out the Los Angeles Lakers as a landing spot, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. That obviously means the Lakers shouldn't bother with him.
Not.
Players like Love don't just come around. He's a superstar who can headline an effective offense on his own or coexist alongside one ball-dominant scorer—like, say, a healthy Kobe Bryant. You don't just give up on him, no matter what he says.
Already employing the injured Julius Randle does diminish the Lakers' need for Love, but the rookie is an unknown. Love is a given, as well as someone who would attract superstar free agents in the future.
To wit: Love also told Patrick that Russell Westbrook is having a better season than James, and the former is a free agent in 2017. Just saying.
Philadelphia 76ers: Jimmy Butler, SG, RFA
13 of 15
Tendering Jimmy Butler a (max-)offer sheet in restricted free agency isn't the Philadelphia 76ers' style as of now. And, for that matter, it might not even be something they're interested in anytime soon.
"Now probably isn't the best time to think about free-agent options for the Sixers because it will probably be at least two more seasons before they are ready to make a big splash," wrote Philly.com's John Smallwood ahead of the trade deadline. "A lot of things can change during that time, but the bottom line will remain the same."
Knowing the Sixers proceeded to blow up their roster even further shortly after that blurb, the odds of them handing out long-term deals to players who help them win now aren't great. Talk to them in 2017, when they've had time to let Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and overseas prospect Dario Saric develop.
Still, if the Sixers are prepared to add immediate impact players this summer, making a push for two-way shooting guards would be a good place to start.
Butler has blossomed into an All-Star during his contract season, averaging 20.2 points, six rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.7 steals. His three-point stroke has improved, he's an impregnable defender who only elevates the ceiling of Philadelphia's top-12 defense, and he can flip-flop at the 2- and 3-spots with Tony Wroten.
Better still, Butler is only 25. He has more than enough time to slog through an extensive rebuild.
Indeed, the Chicago Bulls can and, in all likelihood, will match any offers Butler fields. But the Sixers have all of the cap space in the world. Attempting to use it, specifically on Butler, shows fans they're at least semi-interested in competing soon.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Khris Middleton, SF/PF,RFA
14 of 15
Unlike most rebuilding factions, the Minnesota Timberwolves have logjams everywhere. As a team that ranks in the bottom four of offensive and defensive efficiency, though, they're far from a finished product.
Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng are the only surefire long-term pieces they employ. Everyone else—save for Kevin Garnett—is expendable when looking at the big picture.
Khris Middleton would look mighty good as part of that big picture. The Timberwolves will need to find takers for one or more of Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, Anthony Bennett and Chase Budinger to make a real play for his services, but he's worth the trouble.
"Each time he takes the floor, he seems to send his career trajectory higher," wrote Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley. "His sophomore campaign showed what he was capable of in a full-time role. This season's post-All-Star-break surge has once again elevated his ceiling."
Middleton is a preeminent Swiss Army knife. Opponent shooting percentages plummet when he's on their case, and he's the consummate tertiary offensive option, able to play off others. He is posting an effective field-goal percentage north of 59 in catch-and-shoot scenarios, a success rate liable to make the ball-bearing Rubio drool.
Actually poaching him from the Milwaukee Bucks will be Minnesota's greatest obstacle. The Bucks can match any offer he receives, something they're likely to do. Middleton leads them in win shares and has the highest net rating of any player still on the roster.
But while the task at hand seems impossible, it never hurts to look. And for the Timberwolves—provided they open up the requisite cap space—that's a credo worth living by.
New York Knicks: Marc Gasol, C, UFA
15 of 15
Duh.
Sporting the league's worst record, the Knicks need everything and everyone. They are 29th in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have virtually no foundation upon which to build. They're also attempting to install some version of the triangle offense, limiting the pool of players from which they can choose.
Gasol stills ranks as the best, most logical target.
New York's sloth-paced offense needs a big man who can score and pass from the post, two areas in which Gasol excels. The former Defensive Player of the Year has also anchored a top-10 defense in each of the last five seasons.
If Gasol's numbers hold, he'll become just the seventh player, age 30 or older, to average at least 17.5 points, eight rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. As someone on the brink of joining Hakeem Olajuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Karl Malone, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, we're not talking about a serviceable big man. We're talking about an MVP-caliber talent the Knicks have to chase.
“I haven’t ruled anything out," Gasol said of his free agency, per ESPN New York's Ian Begley, "because I haven’t thought about anything so it would be [premature].”
Weeks from now, Gasol will have no choice but to think about everything. And you can bet the Knicks, they of max-contract cap space, will be looking on.
They can only hope he's looking back.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on March 25 unless otherwise cited. Salary information via HoopsHype.
