10 Players Who Will Define the 2015 NBA Playoff Picture
A few 2015 NBA playoff seats have been reserved, but the postseason picture still largely looks as clear as mud.
The top-heavy Eastern Conference is overloaded on the bottom half of the bracket. Out West, the front-running Golden State Warriors have left a large gap between themselves and the field, but none of the other seeds feel solidified.
The 10 players listed here will have the greatest impact on how this race shakes out.
Some will look to make a spark—or, in other cases, not disrupt the flow—as they battle back from injuries. Others will do their best Elmer's Glue impression and try to hold fractured teams together. Still another group will have to keep filling the leadership shoes they've rocked all season.
As this campaign races toward its conclusion, the margin for error disappears right along with it. How these 10 players respond to the walls closing in will provide some clarity to the cluttered playoff race.
Each player has been ranked by his level of impact on the postseason picture. Individual statistics and importance play a large part in the rankings, but there's also an advantage for players on teams with the most mobility. Maintaining a playoff perch is important, but teams that can significantly rise or fall could really reshape how the field is set.
10. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls
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The third-seeded Chicago Bulls are getting healthier, but they're still likely to limp toward the finish line. With the Toronto Raptors nipping at their heels and the Washington Wizards keeping themselves within striking distance, the Bulls need to avoid a dry spell.
But the Windy City isn't playing with a full deck. Derrick Rose is still making his way back from his third knee surgery since April 2012. Joakim Noah, who hasn't looked right all season, missed Monday's win over the Charlotte Hornets with soreness. Both Jimmy Butler (elbow) and Taj Gibson (ankle) have rust to scrape off after their recent returns from lengthy injury layoffs.
Rookie Nikola Mirotic, who has shuffled in and out of coach Tom Thibodeau's rotation, has embraced the next-man-up attitude.
And that's putting it lightly. During 14 games in March, he has averaged 20.6 points and 7.7 rebounds. A crafty scorer off the dribble, he's taken the sixth-most free-throw attempts in the entire league since the All-Star break. He can create shots for himself, work either side of a pick-and-roll play or let it fly as a spot-up shooter.
The battered Bulls, who are 5-6 over their last 11 games, need Mirotic to help them secure a top-four seed. He's capable of not only doing that but also giving Chicago another weapon when (if?) the on-paper contender becomes whole again.
9. Jamal Crawford, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
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A healthy Jamal Crawford is a game-changer for the Los Angeles Clippers.
They rank just 20th in bench scoring, per HoopsStats.com, despite having a two-time Sixth Man of the Year in Crawford. He does a masterful job of balancing scoring and playmaking duties, whether he's leading the reserves or giving the starters another shot-creator to support Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.
But a deep calf bruise has kept Crawford out of the team's last 11 games. And it's hard to tell when—or even if—he'll make his return.
"You can't rush him," Griffin said, per Melissa Rohlin of the Los Angeles Times, "he can barely walk."
Credit the Clippers for holding down the fort without Crawford. They lost the first two games he missed but have since won seven of their last nine.
This surge has given the Clippers a one-game lead on the Portland Trail Blazers in their race for home-court advantage in the opening round. Given the Blazers' significant home-road splits (28-7 at home, 17-18 away), the Clippers could boost their first-round survival chances by hosting the series.
It's possible to do that without Crawford. But his return could help make that easier and give L.A. a chance to climb to the No. 3 seed—and move to the opposite side of the bracket from the Warriors.
8. Enes Kanter, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Despite the ridiculous stretch put together by Russell Westbrook, the injury-riddled Oklahoma City Thunder have needed more. That's the simple fact in this cruel reality that's seen Serge Ibaka sidelined after arthroscopic knee surgery and Kevin Durant perhaps lost for the season due to a pesky foot problem.
Enes Kanter, acquired from the Utah Jazz at the trade deadline, has answered that call.
The former No. 3 pick has posted 17.6 points on 56.7 percent shooting and 10.8 rebounds in 16 games with the Thunder. His player efficiency rating has jumped from 17.6 in Utah to 24.9 in OKC. (For context, 77 players have a PER above 17.6—only nine are clearing 24.9.)
For Kanter, the Thunder have helped him get back to the basics.
"Playing closer to the rim has resulted in an increase in the number of offensive rebounds and free throws Kanter gets," wrote SB Nation's Jesus Gomez. "Kanter is also posting up more and excelling. ... To put it in simple terms, all he needed to unleash his potential as an offensive player was the opportunity to play like a traditional big man."
The Thunder have a relatively comfortable three-game advantage on the ninth-seeded Phoenix Suns, but the absences of Durant and Ibaka make it impossible to call this race finished. Westbrook has proved he'll do whatever is needed to keep OKC alive, but Kanter's offense could be the missing piece to the Thunder's postseason puzzle.
7. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics
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Playoffs may not have always been part of this season's plan for the Boston Celtics. But with their young guns leading the way, the Celtics are pulling off the rare feat of rebuilding and winning simultaneously.
Boston has the East's fifth-highest winning percentage since the All-Star break (.550). But continuing that success—and converting it into a playoff berth—will require adding some punch to an offense that lost firepower in trades (Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo) and injury (Jared Sullinger).
Pint-sized scoring guard Isaiah Thomas can supply some of that knockout power. A bruised back sidelined him for eight games, but he returned for Wednesday's 93-86 loss to the Miami Heat.
The Celtics don't have another healthy scorer averaging more than Avery Bradley's 14 points per game. Thomas averaged 20.3 for the Sacramento Kings last season and put up 19.8 per game in his first 11 outings after landing with Boston in a three-team trade at the deadline. His 4.9 assists per game places him second on the Celtics.
Even if Boston plans to win with defense under coach Brad Stevens, it still needs a catalyst to kick-start things on the opposite side. If Thomas gets hot, he could help Boston close the four-game gap between it and the sixth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. If he can't, the eighth-seeded Celtics will have a hard time holding off the three teams directly behind them.
6. Paul George, SF, Indiana Pacers
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If you're confused at all about Paul George's possible return, don't worry. You are not alone.
The Indiana Pacers can't seem to get a handle on it, either.
"I think he’s cleared by the doctors to play," Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird said recently, per ESPN.com's Mike Mazzeo.
"There's a lot of layers to that, so he hasn't been cleared to play for us," coach Frank Vogel said later, per Candace Buckner of The Indianapolis Star.
Make sense? Not a French lick of it.
The Pacers are right to exercise caution with George's attempted comeback from his gruesome broken leg. He should be the franchise face for years to come, so they can't let their desire for instant gratification steer them in the wrong direction.
But if his body and, more importantly, his mind are ready for this, then they should let him loose. Not only would that give him something to build on over the offseason, but it could also send a jolt to Indy's playoff hopes.
If George is anywhere in the vicinity of 100 percent, he's probably the Pacers' top scorer and best perimeter defender. This team needs to improve at both ends of the floor to successfully climb out of the East's ninth seed.
5. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies are trying to tighten their grip on the No. 2 seed out West. It isn't quite locked into place—the Houston Rockets are only 1.5 games back—but it feels pretty stable with a healthy Mike Conley back in the driver's seat.
Granted, the Grizzlies wouldn't be in this position without the fearless frontcourt combo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. But those bruising bigs wouldn't function the same without Conley's steady two-way play at the point.
This franchise has constructed a contender on the idea that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That approach doesn't exactly lend itself to overstuffed stat sheets.
In other words, Conley's individual numbers don't tell the entire story of his impact. Rather, they highlight his willingness to accept whatever assignment the team hands out on any given night.
"It's crazy because in one series I could be worried about the defensive end and stopping this guy from getting 30," he told ESPN.com's Scoop Jackson. "You know, 'if I can hold him to 18...' Telling myself, 'This is where I want him to be.' And then the next series could be like, 'I gotta score 30.'"
For the Grizzlies to retain their current playoff post, they'll need Conley to seamlessly transition through his many roles. Between Tony Allen's offensive limitations and the swings in perimeter production from Courtney Lee and Jeff Green, Memphis needs Conley to be consistent—even when the demands placed on him are anything but.
4. Arron Afflalo, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers acquired Arron Afflalo from the Denver Nuggets at the trade deadline to play behind Wesley Matthews and provide consistency to a bench that's been without it for a while.
But circumstances have changed since. Now the Blazers need Afflalo to replace Matthews, a potent three-and-D wing and emotional leader who's done for the year with a torn Achilles.
Afflalo brings a similar skill set to Matthews, but the former hasn't been as productive as the latter this season. And Afflalo has only had 16 games to try to recreate the chemistry Matthews had built with his teammates over the past four-plus years.
Afflalo has provided a needed three-point touch (39.1 percent shooting from deep with the Blazers), but Portland has been a disaster at the defensive end. The Blazers had been allowing 97 points on 43.2 percent shooting when Matthews was healthy. In the 10 games since his injury, Portland's opponents have tallied 104.9 points and shot 48.1 percent from the field.
The Blazers should secure a top-four seed easily by virtue of their massive Northwest Division lead, but they could open their first-round series on the road if they don't finish with a better record than the fifth seed. Afflalo, who has no reliable reserves behind him, has to make sure that doesn't happen.
3. Luol Deng, SF, Miami Heat
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Even without Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat should capture one of the East's final playoff berths. As long as Hassan Whiteside's stitched-up hand doesn't keep him out of action too long, the Heat have too much talent and too much postseason experience not to make the big dance.
But their playoff hopes could depend on which Luol Deng they get down the stretch. When he gets going, Miami can be a nightmare to stop.
The Heat have won 30 games this season with Deng in the lineup, and the versatile forward has been a major reason why. In those contests, he's put up 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists, while shooting 53.5 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from deep.
But Miami has also lost 33 games with Deng on the floor. And, again, he's been a big part of the blame. His averages dip to just 12.1 points, 4.5 boards and 1.4 dimes in those games, and his shooting percentages plummet to 42.3 and 34.5, respectively.
With Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade keeping defenses occupied, Deng should find no shortage of good-to-great scoring chances. But his offensive aggressiveness seems to come and go. He has taken at least 13 shots in 18 games this season (14 of which Miami won), but he's also put up seven or fewer nine different times (seven of them Heat losses).
The seventh-seeded Heat have the inside track on a postseason spot, but they might need Deng to carry them there.
2. Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets' agonizing wait for Dwight Howard is finally over. Sidelined since Jan. 25 by a nagging knee problem, Howard returned to action for Wednesday's 95-93 win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
But as much as this sounds like a conclusion, it's really the next chapter in Howard's recovery. He logged just 16 minutes his first game back and will not play both sides of a back-to-back set the remainder of the season, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins.
Howard also needs to adjust to more than his body. He'll have to figure out where he fits next to the red-hot James Harden, who has topped 40 points in two of his last four outings. But according to Harden, that part of the process has already been addressed.
"He said, 'I'll adjust to you,' and that right there gave me confidence to just play, and play my game and not worry about anything else," Harden told USA Today's Sam Amick. "Once you hear that from your other leader, then you know you can just go out there and play the way that I've been playing."
The Rockets need this to be as smooth as possible.
Houston is only 1.5 games behind Memphis but also just 3.5 games up on the seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks. With no Terrence Jones (partially collapsed lung) or Patrick Beverley (wrist) for the foreseeable future, the short-handed Rockets will have to find their rhythm quickly.
1. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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It's tempting to call Tony Parker the head of the San Antonio Spurs' snake, because it's an accurate statement in a lot of ways. His dribble penetrations are what set the gears in motion for Gregg Popovich's offensive machine.
But Kawhi Leonard makes the Spurs a different beast entirely. When he's clicking offensively, everything falls into place. His performance in wins (16.9 points on .499/.372/.813 shooting, 7.5 rebounds) and losses (13.9 points on .388/.240/.738 shooting, 7.0 boards) shows how his effectiveness is a barometer for this team's success.
His offense alone can lift this team to new heights. But his suffocating defense is what gives the sixth-seeded Spurs a chance to climb the standings now or outperform their playoff position later.
"Leonard has a habit of turning great players into average ones," wrote Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry. "... Leonard’s defensive assignments—guys like Durant, LeBron James, and James Harden—regularly fail to live up to expectations on the perimeter. Nobody looks forward to a night trying to play offense against Leonard."
The Spurs have a good offense (seventh in efficiency) but not an explosive enough one to rely on that end of the floor alone. Leonard is the key to two-way success, which in turn is the key for thriving in the second season.
With 11 games left on the docket and a healthy Leonard in the mix, San Antonio has time to dramatically change the playoff picture.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
