Projecting Houston Rockets' Best and Worst Western Conference Playoff Matchups
With the playoffs just a month away, it’s time to start pondering what the potential matchups are. With the crazy, packed Western Conference, who knows how the final seedings will pan out. But we can ask: Who do the Houston Rockets want to draw and avoid?
Of the seven teams Houston could face, only four are realistic possibilities. The Rockets are nine games behind the Golden State Warriors and 7.5 ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder, so facing either of those teams (or whichever team ends up with the No. 8 seed) isn’t going to happen.
Also, the Memphis Grizzlies are in second right now, and the Rockets are in third. Houston is three games up on the Spurs for the No. 7 seed, and the Griz are 4.5 up. It’s mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely, that they end up facing one another.
That’s because of all the other inter-conference games that are going to limit major movement in the standings right now. Other teams have to lose games too because they play one another, so even if Houston or Memphis hit a rough patch, it would do limited damage.
So that leaves four teams the Rockets could reasonably face. They’re ranked here in order of preference for the Rox.
The Rockets have a better record than the Spurs. They have a split in the two games they’ve played to this point. But I have three words for you: They’re the Spurs.
There are two reasons the Rockets want to avoid San Antonio for as long as possible and/or hope that someone else knocks them off.
First, there is the issue of experience. The Spurs are the defending world champions. They’re headed up by Tim Duncan, the greatest player of his generation and the best power forward to ever set foot on a court. Gregg Popovich, who is on the theoretical coaching Mt. Rushmore, is at the helm.
Unless you’re schematically optimized to beat the Spurs, you want to avoid them because they can—and will—exploit any weakness in a seven-game series.
And the Rockets are the precise opposite of that. They have become a defense-first team by aggressively attacking the ball, but because of that, teams that pass well tend to beat the Rockets. The Rockets have surrendered 23 or more assists 25 times this season, and they are 11-14 in those games, per Basketball-Reference.com. That’s compared to 34-8 when they give up 22 or fewer.
And the Spurs have hit the 23-assist mark 45 times, going 29-16 in those games. They’re the team that decimated the Miami Heat in last year’s finals by becoming the first team in 20 years to average 25 dimes a game in the finals.
The Rockets’ chances against the Spurs wouldn’t be impossible, but they’d be slim—less than 25 percent.
The Portland Trail Blazers sent the Rockets packing last year, and in some ways there’s nothing Houston would love more than to exact revenge this season. That’s not impossible, but it’s not guarantee.
In last season’s series, Trail Blazers All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge eviscerated the Rockets to the tune of 29.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. Damian Lillard notched 25.5 points with a ridiculous 66.5 true shooting percentage to go with 6.3 boards, 6.7 dimes and 1.3 steals.
Meanwhile, Harden averaged 26.8 points, but he used a massive number of possessions. His true shooting percentage was just 51.9 percent, and he turned it over 21 times during the series.
That said, there are reasons it could turn around. Harden’s struggles had a lot to do with the defense of Wesley Matthews, who is out for the season. And with the additions of Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, some of the playmaking responsibilities on Harden aren’t as great as they once were.
Dwight Howard had a pretty solid series in his own right, averaging 26.0 points on 58.1 percent true shooting, 13.7 boards and 2.8 blocks. And now he has more help inside with the improved Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas.
Furthermore, Harden has been exceptional against the Trail Blazers this year, averaging 35.7 points, 7.0 assists and 4.7 boards with a 60.8 true shooting percentage. The Rockets are plus-6.6 per game with Harden on the court against Portland.
Portland has won two of three contests between the teams this year, but the Rockets won the only one they had with both Howard and Harden in the lineup.
A full-strength Houston could fall to the Matthews-less Trail Blazers, but it could just as easily exact revenge. It’s a 50/50 chance.
The Los Angeles Clippers have owned the Rockets since James Harden came to Space City, taking eight of 11 games. That’s the bad news.
The good news is the Rockets have taken the last two, and those tell a story that is more likely to portend the result of a potential playoff series. In them, the Rockets’ three main wings, Harden, Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer, played a total of 192.5 minutes and scored 118 points.
Clippers wings J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford, Jordan Hamilton and Austin Rivers played a total of 213 minutes and scored just 95 points. The Clippers wings had 20 more minutes and scored 23 fewer points. This is not an anomaly.
Using the data HoopsStats.com, I looked at how both teams compared at the shooting guard and small forward positions when facing playoff competition. I added them to determine combined wing production. In the chart below, a larger box indicates more points, and the greener the box, the greater the efficiency (the formula for which is here):
The Rockets lead the NBA with both 49.3 points and an efficiency of 46.1. If you click the tab, you can see the opponents’ numbers. The Clippers are tied for the most points given up, at 42.2 and have the worst opponents’ efficiency, 44.4.
The Rockets are the best on offense, and the Clippers are the worst on defense. In a seven-game series, it would be a whole lot of domination from Harden, Brewer and Ariza.
I give the Rockets a 60 percent chance in a series with the Clippers and some colossal numbers by Harden.
The Dallas Mavericks are the best possible opponent for the Rockets, and not just for the joy of exacting revenge on the departed Chandler Parsons.
The Mavs are on the wrong end of a lop-sided trade, and it has everything to do with Rajon Rondo. On Dec. 18, they sent Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, Brandan Wright, their 2015 first-round pick and 2016 second-round pick for Rondo and Dwight Powell.
When the Mavs made the deal, they had the best offensive rating in the league: 110.9, per NBA.com/Stats. Since then, they’ve scored just 103.9 points per 100 possessions. And it’s easy to blame it on Rondo. The Mavs offense is actually worse by 1.2 with him on the court.
And even with Rondo’s help, Dallas has just the 12th-best defense since they acquired him.
At the time of the trade, the Rockets were the league’s 19th-ranked offense. But they made trades too, acquiring Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, who have bolstered the bench. Since Jan. 3, when Smith joined the reserve unit, Houston owns the league’s sixth-best offense.
On the season, the Rockets have the fourth-best defense, and their offense is 13th. The Mavs have the No. 4 offense and 14 defense. So, based on season stats, it looks like a great offense vs. defense matchup.
But in reality, this is a matchup of offense and defense versus a team that has neither. Frankly, Houston is just a better team on both ends of the court than the Mavericks, right now. And that’s playing without even playing with Howard.
The Rockets have won two of the three contests they’ve played already. But we don’t need to know that to know that the Rockets will most likely dismiss the Mavericks in short order should they face them. I give them an 80 percent chance and think the series would end in five games.
And if the playoffs started today, that’s who the Rockets would play.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
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