Last-Minute Move the Boston Red Sox Should Try to Make

I'll be sure to avoid the comments section after this one. If mentioning the name Cole Hamels ensures people will post venomous remarks, it's bound to get ugly when an entire article is devoted to the pursuit of the Philadelphia Phillies starter.

Why people get in such a huff over a projection that a big-money team will and/or should address its glaring need by acquiring the most attainable ace on the market, I'll never understand. That's how baseball works. At least for the top third of the league. 

Once upon a time, the other 29 MLB teams turned against the big-spending New York Yankees. They collectively vilified a single franchise for trying to "buy a championship." But today you can't pick just one evil empire because it's morphed into a plump upper class.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the biggest payroll (Spotrac.com estimates it at over $273 million), making them the logical candidate to play the role of Prince Joffrey. The problem is that besides San Francisco Giants fans, no one really feels hatred toward "Magic Johnson's team." 

The distaste the estimated $61 million payroll gap between the Dodgers and second-place Yankees would typically elicit is negated by the fact that L.A. blew nearly $58 million on Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Brett Anderson and Brandon League. Then there is the $18 million they'll pay Matt Kemp to play for the Padres, the $10 million in checks to Dan Haren while he pitches for the Marlins and the $9.5 million for Brian Wilson to sit at home. Misspending $95.5 million doesn't evoke anger, it triggers laughter at the foolishness of a wasteful billionaire group. But I digress.

The point is that thanks to a boom in local TV deals (as Forbes detailed in 2014), there isn't one goliath anymore; there are nine to 10. The Red Sox are in that inner circle of teams that every outside fan scoffs at because money is practically an afterthought. Baseball Prospectus notes that John Henry's franchise has ranked in the top five in 40-man year-end salary all 13 seasons since he purchased the team in December of 2001.

Now, Hamels isn't an ideal acquisition, but neither was Hanley Ramirez. These same decision-makers just agreed to pay the injury-prone shortstop-turned third baseman-turned left fielder an average of $22 million per season over the next four years. They've shown with their wallets and their mouths a desire to bounce back into contention right now. What's a projected $178 million-plus payroll if you're an ace short of being a truly viable World Series threat?

The Fenway faithful would prefer Hamels was 27 instead of 31 and that he didn't cost over $20 million per season. But the left-hander is still an accomplished ace who's made 30-plus starts each of his last seven campaigns. He has a wins above replacement (WAR) over 4.5 in every one of the past five seasons, according to Baseball-Reference.com. He's coming off a year where his 6.6 WAR tied a career high.

Though Fangraphs' fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) metrics show he's pitched above his head to some degree during the past five seasons, his advanced numbers over that time still reflect those of a high-end starter. 

Brian Garfinkel/Getty Images

For fans of more traditional stats, Hamels has a 3.27 ERA in 1,801.1 career innings over nine MLB seasons. Five times he's had an ERA under 3.10, with a career-best 2.46 ERA a year ago. He's a strikeout maven who has racked up over 190 K's in six of his past seven seasons. The former first-round pick also won a World Series MVP back in 2008 and sports a 3.09 ERA over 13 playoff starts.

According to Fangraphs' PITCHf/x, Hamels' average four-seam fastball velocity has actually increased each of the last three years. The section of the site also shows that his changeup has been nearly un-hittable since 2011, his cutter has developed into a high-quality weapon and that he mixes in his devastating curveball incredibly well without over-relying on it.

At 31, Hamels is the same age as Jon Lester. Boston offered the homegrown lefty $135 million over six seasons, according to ESPN. The $94 million Hamels is owed over the next four years puts his annual salary at $1 million more than what the Red Sox were willing to spend per year on Lester.

However, general manager Ben Cherington would only be fully committing to Hamels through his age-34 season, with a $20 million team option in 2019. The proposed Lester contract would have put Boston on the hook until he turned 36, obviously making it a riskier gamble. 

From a Phillies perspective, the Cliff Lee debacle should have the alarms blaring in their front office. Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro told ESPN he doesn't think Lee's career-threatening elbow/forearm injury has any impact on his Hamels negotiations. Then again, he's not going to give away bargaining position by displaying weakness in the press. What did you expect him to say?

"Oh yeah, this Cliff Lee injury is really disastrous. I was forced to tell my owner he has to eat $25 million on a 36-year-old who I could have turned into two or three young pieces to help rebuild this decrepit team. Now he's furious and we're more desperate than ever to trade Hamels. We're going to be one of the five worst teams this season even with the ace in tow, so financially it makes no sense to retain his services. It's doubtful any trade-deadline haul would exceed what I can get now. Waiting only risks Hamels damaging his value with a poor first half of 2015 or, God forbid, he becomes the latest victim of the debilitating elbow injury epidemic. If that happens, I'd be saddled with $48.5 million on the 60-day DL and have wasted my top two trade chips. I need to ensure I get something of value in return for this asset to brighten our future outlook and somehow stave off being fired for the umpteenth time."

I don't care how many jokes Amaro is the butt of, he's not foolish enough to be honest publicly. And that satirical quote didn't even mention the fact there is a loaded free-agent pitching class on the horizon in 2016. If the Phillies continue to wait, Hamels' stock will only depreciate further as he gets older, the amount of control a new team would have over him lessens and other worthy options become available on the open market.

So why shouldn't Boston stand pat, hold onto their top prospects (mainly Blake Swihart, who seems to be the man Philly is holding out for) and then bring in a free-agent ace next year? Because the current American League landscape is wide-open.

Baseball's postseason has turned into the ultimate crapshoot, but A) you still have to punch your ticket to the playoffs, and B) the likelihood of winning it all skyrockets when you have an ace. Only two teams in the past 20 years have won a World Series without a true No. 1 starter: the 2002 Anaheim Angels and the 1997 Florida Marlins (Kevin Brown had his regular-season ace status stripped by posting a 4.91 playoff ERA. His team won in spite of him).

The Red Sox can distinguish themselves in a muddled AL by making a move for Hamels. It also wouldn't preclude them from adding another marquee starter in 2016 free agency. If Boston declines Clay Buchholz's 2016 option ($13 million), it'll have $35 million off the books from its 2015 rotation, with Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson's deals set to expire. That could be used on one of the aforementioned crop of top-tier starters (David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto) and/or to re-sign Porcello if he solidifies himself as an ascending player.

But for the upcoming season, there aren't a slew of last-minute moves the Red Sox should attempt to pull off before Opening Day. Whether Red Sox fans like it or not, there is just the same one that's been staring them in the face since December. 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. All salary-cap and payroll information courtesy of Spotrac.com. All prospect rankings courtesy of Baseball America unless otherwise noted.