3 Reasons the Portland Trail Blazers Can Contend for a Title
There’s only a handful of championship-contending teams in the NBA each season, and the Portland Trail Blazers are one of them. They have the right personnel and identity to make a push for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, despite the adversity that has hit the team thus far.
A plethora of serious injuries has hampered key players for long stretches, most notably Robin Lopez’s broken hand, which forced him to miss more than 20 games, and the torn thumb ligament of LaMarcus Aldridge that was meant to sideline him for four to six weeks.
The most serious ailment, however, is the torn Achilles tendon of Wesley Matthews that ended his season on March 5. The high-intensity shooter will be sorely missed down the stretch, as his three-point touch and aggressive defense would have been X-factors in the postseason.
But Portland can keep it together and compete, even with the loss of an integral piece to its puzzle.
Two All-Star Players
Every contending team needs star players to carry it down the stretch, taking on the hard tasks in the thick of it. Whether that’s keeping the offense afloat as it lags or hitting a buzzer-beater to clinch a playoff series with 0.9 seconds left, LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard fit the bill.
Few teams have an All-Star tandem that truly plays off each other, but this duo is quite frightening in the pick-and-roll game. Aldridge’s mid-range shooting and ability to roll to the rim give defenses headaches, similarly to Lillard’s three-point proficiency and newfound (and efficient) aptitude driving inside for easy buckets.
It’s easy to forget that Lillard is still in just his third NBA season, as his relentless motor to compete carries the air of a very mature and experienced player. His outside shooting has been shaky thus far (a career-low 34.3 percent), but it remains a deadly weapon in his arsenal.
He’s made 159 threes on the season after all, which is good for No. 6 in the NBA. If that isn’t falling, Lillard has no trouble taking it inside to convert 50 percent of his two-point field goals, which is tied for No. 4 in the league.
Aldridge is seemingly never rattled, making big plays on offense, defense and on the boards. He’s one of just three players averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, and has a jumper that stretches all the way to the three-point line.
His pair of 40-point games to open last season’s postseason against the Houston Rockets showed Aldridge’s competence in playing under the spotlight, as he went on to average 26.2 points and 10.6 rebounds for the playoffs overall.
N.B. Western Conference contenders: Good luck defending these two.
The Other Guys
Matthews might be watching the playoffs from the sideline, but the Blazers still have a number of role players that contribute in major ways.
Nicolas Batum is a walking master class in how to contribute in just about every facet of the game. He had 15 rebounds against the Washington Wizards on March 16, a total of 12 assists (and just one turnover) against the Toronto Raptors on March 15 and 20 points, seven rebounds, eight assists and a huge game-tying three with 26 seconds left to force overtime against the Los Angeles Clippers on March 4.
Batum has been hampered by knee and wrist injuries for the most part, but he’s averaged 12.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 43.6 percent shooting from beyond the arc since the All-Star break after fully recovering.
Robin Lopez, mostly regarded for his defensive presence, is a key component for Portland on both ends. His screen-and-roll game is hugely underrated, in addition to his ability to seemingly seal defenders from contesting his teammates’ shots.
If Lillard or Batum are driving, or Aldridge gets into the paint from the post, Lopez has a knack for getting in the way to ensure the help defense isn’t able to contribute. The same can be said for the three-point shooting on the outside, as he sets powerful screens to prevent defenders from running shooters off their spots.
What Lopez does for Portland on offense goes mostly unnoticed in the box score but is crucial to the team’s success. Per NBA.com, the Blazers have an offensive rating of 107.1 and a defensive rating of 99.9 with him on the floor, compared to 104.1 and 100.2, respectively, with him on the bench.
Arron Afflalo is still growing accustomed to his surroundings in Portland, but he’s quickly becoming a reliable scoring option. He shot just 2-of-13 against the Houston Rockets on March 11 but has averaged 14.6 points on 46.8 percent shooting over his last three games.
Afflalo has the right combination of outside shooting, defensive ability and confidence to somewhat fill the shoes of Matthews. No player could truly replace what Iron Man means to this group, but Afflalo is doing his best.
The reserve unit isn’t top-notch, but it has enough experience, talent and character to be effective down the stretch. Chris Kaman, Steve Blake, Meyers Leonard, C.J. McCollum and Dorell Wright combine to give Portland a collection of role players that has a wealth of different strengths.
Kaman’s post skills, Blake’s ultra-efficient passing, Leonard’s rebounding and ability to stretch the floor, Wright’s veteran attitude/shooting and McCollum’s scoring all come in handy in spurts.
The Blazers bench ranks just No. 29 in both minutes and scoring, per Hoops Stats, but neither should discount what it can do. Both are merely products of Portland’s starter-focused mindset and the talent of that lineup, as the reserves rank No. 13 in defensive rebounding, No. 8 in field-goal percentage and No. 1 in three-point shooting at 38.7.
Coaching and the System
Head coach Terry Stotts has only been in Portland for three seasons, but he’s already transformed this team from a lottery-bound squad to a championship contender. He's extremely vocal on the sidelines, frequently calling out plays or instruction to his guys and making swift, intelligent adjustments in-game.
He was a key part of the coaching staff when the Dallas Mavericks won the title in 2011, and he’s brought the same competitive pedigree to the Blazers. They have a top-10 rating in both offense and defense, courtesy of ESPN.com, and have done a remarkable job to improve in the latter category.
Portland holds the seventh-best defensive rating at 100.1 this season, a vast upgrade over last season’s mark of 104.7, which ranked No. 16 in the NBA. This team has worked ruthlessly to disallow the three-point shooting of opponents while simultaneously dominating from that area offensively.
The Blazers are tied with the Chicago Bulls for allowing just 6.1 threes made per game, trailing just the Houston Rockets in opponent three-point percentage with a 32.3 clip. They allow 43.5 percent shooting overall, in addition to disrupting offensive flow by limiting teams to 20.3 assists per game.
On the other end, Portland is tied for No. 8 with 102.8 points per game and ranks No. 3 in three-point field goals made at 10.1 and No. 6 in three-point shooting.
Defending Aldridge with single coverage is no easy feat, and double-teaming the power forward leads to open perimeter shots or drives into the paint. The same can be said for the Blazers’ pick-and-roll offense and capacity to spread the floor simultaneously, which forces a “pick-your-poison” scheme for opposing teams.
The combination of strong offense and defense has given Portland the luxury of never being counted out of a game, no matter the scoring margin. There’s been what seems like countless games this season in which the Blazers have been down big, only to mount a comeback and snatch victory in one fell swoop.
It doesn’t always end in a win though, as evidenced most recently by their loss to the Washington Wizards on March 16. The final score of 105-97 doesn’t come close to explaining the course of the game, as Portland was down by as many as 25 points and trailed 60-40 at halftime.
The Blazers got off to a very slow start on the road, after having played against the Raptors in Toronto the night before. They mounted a retaliation in the second half, scoring 57 points to the Wizards’ 45, but alas it was an unsuccessful mission.
Though the comeback was short-lived, it’s still indicative of just how potent Portland can be, even if things go amiss for a quarter, a half or even 45 minutes of a 48-minute game. Against the Clippers on March 4, the Blazers outscored Los Angeles 12-4 over the final three minutes to force overtime and eventually take home the win, 98-93.
Having that type of confidence and skill to execute on both ends, no matter what part of the game, will be so invaluable in the postseason, as Portland can trust that it can mount an assault regardless of what the scoreboard reads.
That can be directly attributed to Stotts' decisions, the system and the attitude of this team: strong-arming opponents on offense and defense, as well as any and every player stepping up and doin’ work.
Let’s go, Rip City.
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