San Francisco 49ers: Evaluating the First New Deals of 2015 Free Agency
The San Francisco 49ers have made a couple key additions in free agency, as well as re-signing Blaine Gabbert, since the 2015 NFL league year officially started on Tuesday. It’s been a crazy 48 hours around the league, although the 49ers haven’t been quite as busy as some. I figured it’d be good to take a brief look at all the moves the 49ers have made—and a few they haven’t made—and see how they’ll impact the team both on the field and against the salary cap.
Here is a brief snapshot at all the moves the 49ers have made, ranked from most exciting to most questionable.
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The 49ers signed Torrey Smith to a five-year, $40 million contract, with $22 million of that guaranteed, according to Spotrac. However, it doesn’t necessarily have to be that long—the financial terms basically lock Smith onto the team for two or three seasons , after which the 49ers could feasibly get out of the deal if Smith’s slight dip in performance in 2014 turns out to be an ongoing trend, rather than a one-year blip.
| 2015 | $750,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,250,000 | $3,600,000 | $8,750,000 |
| 2016 | $4,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $7,600,000 | $6,400,000 |
| 2017 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $4,800,000 |
| 2018 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $3,200,000 |
| 2019 | $6,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,500,000 | $9,600,000 | $1,600,000 |
My first thoughts? That’s a little high for Smith, though not horribly so. It’s less money that Jeremy Maclin received, so I suppose this is just the going rate for mid-20s receivers, but Smith isn’t a true game-breaking receiver—he’s an elite deep threat, but he hasn’t yet developed an all-around game to be worthy of a huge contract. He’s getting paid the 16th most per season of all receivers in the NFL, and I think that’s probably a bit more than I’d like to shell out for him, personally. I’d be happier with him in the $6 million a year range, on average. Something on par with the contract DeSean Jackson signed with Washington last season, in other words.
But that’s not what he was available for, and it’s not like the 49ers have paid some ungodly number for his services. He’s still developing as a player, too, so maybe he does end up developing that all-around game and becomes a true No. 1 receiver. When the team has struggled so much to put two competent receivers on the field at the same time, sometimes you have to overpay a little to get some security at the position.
Assuming Colin Kaepernick and Smith develop chemistry quickly—which is never a guarantee, but stick with me for the moment—he should be a very good pickup for 2015. With Anquan Boldin handling the shorter routes and third-down conversions as a key possession receiver, Smith is freed up to do what he does best—be a home-run threat. In his career, Smith has 42 receptions on passes that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air, scoring 15 touchdowns and getting 1,521 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. He only has 12 drops as well, though five of them happened last season.
To put that in perspective, all San Francisco pass catchers have combined for 88 receptions for 22 touchdowns and 2,816 yards on such passes since 2011. Only Vernon Davis comes anywhere close to matching Smith’s numbers individually, and he fell off of a cliff last season. The second best deep threat for the 49ers over that time period was Michael Crabtree, and he’s not likely to be back, either.
So, the 49ers got a receiver who excels in the skills their best current receivers don’t have. That’s good! It doesn’t eliminate the receiver need in the draft, however, because Boldin’s only going to be around for another year or two. It is a bit annoying that the top free agent pick-up the 49ers are likely to make does not entirely erase a need. However, the only non-franchised player who really would have been a true No. 1 receiver out there was Randall Cobb, and he re-signed with the Packers early for a price the 49ers didn’t believe they could afford.
It’s not a home-run signing, but it’s a solid single with the potential to be more if the ball bounces the right way—to mix sports metaphors. If Smith doesn’t develop into more than he is now, he’s a two-year player while the 49ers look for their version of Jordy Nelson or Calvin Johnson. If he does develop, the contract is a steal over the full five seasons.
One other way to look at it is that this $8 million a year contract perfectly offsets the $8 million a year contract that the Cardinals gave to Mike Iupati. When you consider that the 49ers seem happier with their in-house options at guard than receiver, as well as the relative scarcity of the two positions, that’s a positive switch for the 49ers. Not that Iupati was a bad signing by any means—he’s a better guard than Smith is a receiver—but the 49ers probably made the right long-term choice when it came to allocating their salary resources.
Darnell Dockett
Darnell Dockett’s contract is definitely interesting. He was released by the Arizona Cardinals after missing the entire 2014 season with an ACL tear; he was slated to count a massive $9.8 million against the cap this season, which was simply not doable. That’s DeMarcus Ware-type money, and not something a team could pay to a 34-year old player coming off of a major injury.
The Cardinals wanted him back for less, but the 49ers swooped in instead. Dockett said in an interview he gave the Cardinals a chance to match San Francisco’s offer, but they weren’t willing to go up the extra $500,000 that the 49ers offered.
According to NinersNation, here are the terms of Dockett’s deal:
| 2015 | $3,250,000 | $0 | $750,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
| 2016 | $2,750,000 | $0 | $750,000 | $3,500,000 | $0 |
I actually find this deal quite intriguing, though it obviously doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as the potential in the Smith signing. Dockett was showing a bit of a decline even in 2013 before he missed all of last season, but that might be because he was becoming increasingly miscast as an every-down end. As part of a rotation, Dockett’s value increases. If San Francisco can allow him to just focus on the pass rush, I think it’s quite possible he still has something left in the tank.
This obviously works best if either Justin Smith reconsiders retiring or the 49ers draft a defensive end early. If the 49ers are expecting Dockett to man Smith’s old position across from Tank Carrdaine on the other side, I think they’re putting too much faith in a declining, aging player coming off of an injury. I imagine this is only one part of a series of moves to shore up the position, however, and in terms of that, I like it.
In addition, with no signing bonus, it’s essentially a one-year deal with a team option for a second season. If Dockett truly is done, the 49ers can get rid of him at the end of 2015 without any salary cap implications whatsoever. It’s a one-year rental on a former Pro Bowler with hopes he can flash some of the skill he showed in 2012 and earlier.
Blaine Gabbert
Oh boy. Well, the 49ers now have two quarterbacks under contract for 2015, but, really? I get that Gabbert was on the roster last season, and thus there’s some continuity, but they couldn’t find a more solid backup than Gabbert? Colt McCoy wasn’t available and Christian Ponder’s phone number was missing from the rolodex? Matt Moore went on safari and couldn’t be reached?
Sarcasm aside, I wasn’t a huge fan of the Gabbert deal last season when it felt like he was Jim Harbaugh’s pet project, and I’m not a fan of bringing him back now. Admittedly, we haven’t seen much of how he's developed in a 49ers uniform—he had a poor offseason, but didn’t look horrible in garbage time against the Denver Broncos—but surely, we saw enough of him in Jacksonville to realize that he’s not really NFL material.
Chris Mortensen reports it’s only a two-year, $2 million contract, so it’s not like it’s crippling or anything. I just find it difficult to believe that there weren’t better options out there. I’d rather have re-signed Josh Johnson, honestly, even if he’s never won an NFL start in his life. I still hope the 49ers use a mid-round pick on a rookie quarterback to develop—and possibly even beat Gabbert out for the backup role.
Moves They Didn’t Make
Mike Iupati and Frank Gore leaving town hurts, but both got contracts the 49ers really couldn’t afford to match. Iupati, as mentioned above, got $8 million a season from Arizona. That’s money the 49ers instead used to bolster their passing game with Torrey Smith. Again, Iupati is the better player of the two, but receiver is the more important position and the position of greater need. San Francisco made a choice, and I think—at the very least—it’s a defensible one.
Frank Gore frankly got too much guaranteed money from the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are giving him $7.5 million guaranteed on a three-year deal, with Gore locked onto the team through 2016, essentially, according to Spotrac. That’s a huge gamble for a running back who will be 32 next season and is on a slow, but noticeable, decline. If Gore falls off of a cliff in 2015—and remember, he was averaging just 3.94 yards per carry before exploding in the last two weeks to pad his season numbers—then that 2016 contract is going to look like a lead weight.
I’m happy Gore gets to continue as a starter, and I’m happy he’s in a situation that gives him both his best chance to shine and a lot of cash, but I think the Colts have taken too big of a gamble here. If the contract wasn’t guaranteed, then the deal would be a fantastic one, because I really feel Gore will produce this season. It’s just a bit of a long-term gamble to have him on the roster in 2016.
However, the worst contract given to an ex-49er so far in free agency wasn’t Gore’s, and it certainly wasn’t Iupati’s.
I like Dan Skuta. Dan Skuta is a fine rotational outside linebacker who can fill in in a pinch. As a starter, he’s probably in the lower third of the league, but not bizarrely out of place. I was hoping the 49ers would re-sign Dan Skuta as a reserve option incase Aaron Lynch doesn’t build on his rookie season and/or Aldon Smith gets in more off-field trouble.
But…the Jacksonville Jaguars gave Skuta a five-year deal worth $20.5 million, according to Matt Maiocco. Is it just me, or is that a little insane for a player who, with all the best will in the world, has been a solid backup for his entire NFL career? Skuta would have been a great value signing, but at an average of $4.1 million a season in a defense that he hasn’t played in for the last few years, as the Jaguars run a Seattle-style hybrid 4-3 front? That seems very high, to put it politely.
But, hey, with that kind of money, the 49ers will get a better compensatory pick in 2016. Iupati and Smith should cancel each other out, so Skuta, at the moment, has the most valuable contract the 49ers have lost. When the 49ers get an extra random sixth-round pick or so in 2016, they should write a thank-you note to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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