Is Everyone Sleeping on the Los Angeles Clippers' Big-Time Potential to Win Now?
Many expected the Los Angles Clippers to struggle when Blake Griffin had elbow surgery February 9 to remove a staph infection. Instead, the Clippers showed how dangerous they are, going 7-4 heading into Sunday's game against the Golden State Warriors. Is everyone sleeping on the Clippers?
While attention has been focused on the Warriors, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Atlanta Hawks and even the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Clippers have flown under the radar.
Additionally, many have lost faith in the Clippers' ability to advance to the conference finals due to their recent playoff failures. After all, Chris Paul has never made it that far, and neither has the franchise.
However, those musings seem overstated and lazy. The Western Conference is a gauntlet of quality teams and players. It takes more than talent to win multiple playoff series. Teams need a bit of luck to advance, something the Clippers have had little of.
Whether it's Blake Griffin's playoff injury history, the Donald Sterling fiasco or Chris Paul's meltdown against the Thunder last season, the Clippers could finally use some luck on their side. Meanwhile, they have multiple reasons why they should or shouldn't be considered elite.
Defensive Issues and Limited Depth
Any average fan can glance at the Clippers roster and notice how formidable the starting lineup is—but also how weak the bench is. Outside of Jamal Crawford, who might win his third NBA Sixth Man of the Year award, the bench has been dismal.
According to HoopStats.com, the Clippers bench plays a league-low 15.6 minutes per game. Head coach Doc Rivers relies on a limited rotation because he does not trust half his roster to play meaningful minutes.
This has impacted the team's play during the regular season. Griffin, Paul and DeAndre Jordan are required to play extensive minutes. Without reliable reserves, Rivers has been unable to rest his star players during tight games, resulting in fatigue.
However, a reliable bench would not necessarily improve the team's average defense. The Clippers rank 16th in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com, and need help at every position.
Surely, fatigue plays a prominent role on defense. Anyone who has ever played organized basketball will tell you that.
Although this quote discusses Griffin's emphasis on developing a jumper, it relates to defense as well. Crouching in a stance, being mentally focused on the ball, your man and sliding across the floor in congruence with your teammates is physically draining.
Griffin referenced midseason fatigue in his piece for The Players' Tribune:
"My first few years in the league, I was relying on my athleticism to get me by, because that’s what got me to the NBA. The problem with that is, you end up getting really, really tired by February. My rookie year I tried to get out of bed on a road trip near the end of the season and I was like, Am I physically able to walk right now? I went out on the floor that night and ran up and down just trying to look like a real NBA human.
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One of the primary reasons the Warriors, the Houston Rockets and the Milwaukee Bucks are atop the league in defensive efficiency is because they have depth and talented defenders. They do not need to rely on key players to be intensely focused for 35 minutes per game on both ends of the floor.
Unfortunately, the Clippers' two biggest weaknesses work against each other. A limited bench and an unreliable defense could prevent the Clippers from becoming elite.
The Strengths Could Be Enough
Conversely, the Clippers' limited rotation forms the best offense in the entire league, per NBA.com. When the playoffs begin, a deep bench is not as important.
How often do coaches sub the ninth and 10th man into tight games? Starters are going to see their minutes increased, barring foul trouble. Coaches are going to trust their core group of players during the most important games of the season. The result may cut someone out of the rotation entirely.
A limited rotation is something the Clippers are comfortable with and are also quite successful deploying. The team's top six are among the best in the league, which bodes well for its playoff chances.
Using NBA.com's lineup stats, among all five-man rotations playing at least 100 minutes together this season, the Clippers have two in the top 10 via net rating.
Rivers' traditional starters of Paul, Jordan, Griffin, J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes rank eighth in net and offensive rating. Substitute Crawford for Redick and that lineup ranks 10th in net rating and fourth in offensive rating.
The trio of Paul, Griffin and Jordan has been exceptional this year, which explains why those five-man lineups are so formidable.
Paul is one of two guards averaging a double-double. While he is not having a historic season by his measures, 18.5 points per game and 10.1 assists are nothing to scoff at.
Meanwhile, Jordan and Griffin are having historic years.
Jordan is setting career highs in points (11.1), rebounds (14.5) and field-goal percentage (71.3). This is the second straight year Jordan has led the league in field-goal percentage and rebounds, per ESPN.
Griffin is having one of the most spectacular passing seasons ever for a big, according to Basketball-Reference.com. He is one of five players in league history 6'10" or taller who has played at least 1,500 minutes and recorded an assist percentage of 25 or more.
Combine the three together, and it seems obvious why the Clippers' two main lineups are taking the league by storm. They are one of the most difficult to defend because of their beautiful spacing, fluid ball movement and ability to create and finish.
Not much has changed from last year, but Rivers has been insisting Paul be more aggressive, according to ESPN's J.A. Adande:
"I'm always going to say he should shoot more. I'm a coach who believes in aggressive point guards. Chris wants the right balance, but I'm sure I drive him crazy at times. I'm a believer in aggressive point guards, because I believe it puts so much pressure on the defense every time.
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It certainly seems to be working because the offense has performed quite well without Griffin's spectacular offensive skill.
The interesting twist will be observing how the offense is able to regroup when Griffin comes back. Jordan's offensive role has expanded, and Paul has been taking over games. If Griffin can fit back into his previous role and Jordan continues to be dominant on the glass, the Clippers will be a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs.
Complaints will surely be heard about the team's defense or Rivers' limited rotation, but the goal is to win in the playoffs. Considering how formidable the team's top six are, the Clippers have as good a chance as anybody.
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