Weighing the Pros and Cons of Buffalo Bills' Potential Top Free-Agent Targets
The Buffalo Bills narrowly missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record in 2014. Still, then-head coach Doug Marrone decided it was time to quit on Buffalo.
After Marrone opted out of his contract, the recently fired Rex Ryan jumped over from the AFC East rival New York Jets to take over. Ryan has since stated that he plans to build a bully in Buffalo. He and general manager Doug Whaley will have their first opportunity to add to an already talented roster when free agency begins on March 10.
The Bills defense was already a bully last season, ranking fourth overall (312.2 yards per game allowed) and first in sacks (54.0). Balancing out the roster is likely to be a free-agency goal. However, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the defense-minded Ryan push for a top-tier defender, either.
With running back apparently wrapped up, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Bills are set to trade for the Philadelphia Eagles' LeSean McCoy, let's take a look at the potential pros and cons of some of the pending free agents the Bills could (or should) target on the open market.
QB Mark Sanchez
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Pros
Originally a first-round pick of the New York Jets, quarterback Mark Sanchez spent last season with the Philadelphia Eagles. He started eight games for Philadelphia and helped the Eagles to a 10-6 record.
Sanchez pent his first five NFL seasons working under Ryan in New York. He shares a familiarity with the Bills' new head coach, and the two twice appeared in the AFC Championship Game. He is also just 28 years old, which means Sanchez could still emerge as a long-term solution.
Cons
The problem with Sanchez is that he has lacked development as a signal-caller and seems to have leveled off as a game manager. His best statistical season came in 2011, when he threw for 3,474 yards with 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.
Ball security is also an issue for Sanchez, who has committed 103 turnovers to go with 83 touchdowns.
Bottom Line
Sanchez is still relatively young, but he has the type of experience the Bills currently lack at the quarterback position. 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel was benched for Kyle Orton last season. Orton announced his retirement after the season.
Bringing in a veteran quarterback should be priority No. 1 for the Bills, who need either a mentor to Manuel or a starter to hold down the position until a successor can be identified.
Due to his familiarity with Ryan and his philosophies, Sanchez probably represents the best option now that Josh McCown has signed with the Cleveland Browns.
QB Brian Hoyer
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Pros
If Sanchez doesn't wind up in Buffalo, the Bills could turn to former Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer. He has starting experience, though only 17 games of it.
The good news is that Hoyer has shown flashes of ability over the past couple of seasons. He went 10-6 as a starter (9-6 in games he finished) with the Browns. He passed for 3,328 yards in 14 games last year and seems like a true team-first guy.
Like Sanchez, he is still under the age of 30.
Cons
After going 10-6 as a starter with the Browns, Hoyer is likely seeking starter or high-end backup money on the open market. After watching his late-season struggles in 2014 (eight interceptions in his final four starts), it's hard to justify paying him that.
Hoyer has started only three more NFL games than Manuel, even though he has seven years of pro experience. His career passer rating of 76.8 doesn't instill a lot of confidence in his ability to provide an upgrade over Manuel (78.5 rating), either.
Bottom Line
Hoyer seems like a good guy who could provide a positive influence in the Buffalo locker room. However, he has been a backup for most of his career for a reason. Bringing him in as a mentor or stopgap option makes sense only if the Bills can pay him accordingly.
CB Darrelle Revis
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Pros
Assuming the New England Patriots don't get a new deal done with Darrelle Revis, the cornerback could become an interesting target for Buffalo.
Revis is still one of the top pass-defenders in the game, and his experience with Ryan in New York will cause many to connect the dots from Revis to the Bills.
Cons
Revis is scheduled to earn $25 million in 2015, which is why the Patriots are likely to release him, barring a new deal. While a free-agent contract will be a lot lower than this ridiculous sum, Revis is still going to command a lot of money on the open market.
Bottom Line
The prospect of adding Revis to the stout Buffalo secondary is a fun one to talk about, but it simply doen't make sense.
Buffalo was already ranked seventh overall in pass coverage for the 2014 season by Pro Football Focus. Spending big to bolster an area that isn't a weakness simply isn't what smart teams do.
If Ryan has any significant input on free agency, however, it is impossible to rule out.
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WR Cecil Shorts
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Pros
Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Cecil Shorts is one of the league's more underrated pass-catchers. In four seasons with the Jaguars, Shorts has hauled in 176 yards for 2,343 yards. At 6'0" and 202 pounds, he is a stout physical receiver and a solid complementary option.
With Bills receiver Chris Hogan set to become a free agent (exclusive rights) himself, a guy like Shorts seems like a smart addition.
Cons
The biggest concern with Shorts is his injury history. He has missed eight games over the past three years and has never appeared in more than 13 games in one season. Buffalo needs stability, not uncertainty on its offense.
Shorts is also rumored to be drawing interest from Cleveland. According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com, Shorts is interested in playing for his hometown Browns. Presumably, other teams will be interested as well. This could lead to an open-market bidding war for a guy who is really a second-tier player.
Bottom Line
Buffalo has its top two receivers in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Adding a young but experienced pass-catcher like Shorts in a complementary role makes perfect sense.
The Bills must be careful not to overspend, but this is a move that should work at the right price.
LB/DE Jabaal Sheard
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Pros
The Bills chose not to use the franchise tag on star defensive end Jerry Hughes, which means the team could be looking for his replacement in free agency.
Browns outside linebacker Jabaal Sheard is one option that could be a financial and system fit. He spent his first two seasons as a defensive end. This gives him the type of versatility that Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman both love.
He has also missed just three games in four seasons.
Cons
Sheard has developed into a solid all-around player, but his production as a pass-rusher has cooled off significantly. After racking up 15.5 sacks in his first two seasons, Sheard managed just 5.5 in 2013 and 2.0 last season.
This is a far cry from the 20.0 sacks Hughes has produced over the past two years.
Bottom Line
Sheard should come considerably cheap considering his sack production has fallen off in each of the past three seasons. However, a change of scenery could be just what he needs to return to top-notch form.
Re-signing Hughes should be priority No. 1. If, however, the Bills cannot reach a financially adequate deal, Sheard would be a nice fallback option.
TE Julius Thomas
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Pros
Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas is one of the more attractive offensive weapons set to hit the free-agent market. The 6'5", 250-pound pass-catcher isn't exactly polished, but he has been extremely productive over the past two seasons.
Between 2013 and 2014, the former basketball standout hauled in 108 passes for 1,277 yards and an impressive 24 touchdowns. Thomas could well be the type of addition that puts Buffalo's young receiving corps over the top. Bleacher Report's Chris Simms called Thomas a "must-add" for Buffalo earlier this offseason.
Cons
Thomas has been a very dominant red-zone target, but he is very far from a finished product (he didn't play collegiate football before his 2010 season). Thomas also benefited from working with legendary quarterback Peyton Manning in Denver.
There is simply no telling how productive Thomas will be in a new offense and with a different quarterback under center. Add in the fact that Thomas is likely to draw a lot of free-agent attention, and this starts to look like a prototypical risk-reward proposition.
Bottom Line
Bills tight end Scott Chandler had a very solid season in 2014, with 47 receptions, 497 yards and three touchdowns. Chandler is under contract for another year, which means the tight end position isn't exactly a position of need.
Still, it is hard to argue against adding a weapon with the upside of Thomas. It would bolster the young receiving corps and make two-tight-end packages even more dangerous for the offense. If the front office believes the Bills will be a Super Bowl contender within the next few years, this is a move the team should strongly consider.
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