NBA Awards Odds 2014-15: Predicting Who Will Take Home the Hardware
Superlative season is here.
This side of the NBA's All-Star exhibition and trade deadline, two things take center stage without much resistance: postseason pushes and awards races. And because each Bleacher Report writer is certified in the art of crystal-ball gazing, we have a semi-early look at how the latter will pan out.
Stats and the circumstances under which they have come are part of the formula. Team-wide performances will matter in some instances, but regular-season records are not the foundation of our educated hunches.
Longevity is the key here. Predictions take into account how the entire season has unfolded, identifying the most deserving players in every category over this span.
In the end, there are no losers, just exceptional winners. Remember this before demanding changes or threatening to go all Temecula.
Now we go onward, to a dimly lit room pumped full of perfume-smelling incense, at the center of which is our crystal ball, primed for some first-rate answer-giving.
Executive of the Year: David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Odds: 1-7
This was a close one that could have gone either way. Cleveland Cavaliers general manager David Griffin just edges out his counterpart for the Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, who is exploring new frontiers that stretch below rock bottom.
Alas, Griffin is the pick here. And, in hindsight, how could he not be? Barring LeBron James himself publicly accepting credit for turning the Cavaliers into juggernauts, nothing and no one should steal Griffin's executive dap.
There is no way Cleveland contends for a title without James. We know this. Thanks to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, we also know that James began selling Kevin Love on the idea of joining the Cavaliers this past July, so there's no blockbuster trade without him, either.
But Griffin still had the gall to flip the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft, Andrew Wiggins, just to make James happy. There's also no understating his willingness to make wholesale changes midseason.
All told, he basically turned Dion Waiters and a first-round pick into Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov, each of whom has been an integral part in solidifying Cleveland's contender status.
No team has registered a higher winning percentage than the Cavaliers since they began the season 19-20. Fantastic failure appeared to be a very real possibility back then, with the team seemingly teetering on implosion. Now the drama has leveled off, and the Cavaliers are who they're supposed to be: one of the NBA's most formidable forces.
Sure, they're approaching a crossroads-crammed offseason. Love can become a free agent, as can Smith. Shumpert is also slated for restricted free agency. For now, though, the Cavaliers are fine. And for all head coach David Blatt, James and Cleveland's core have done, their outlook isn't as bright without Griffin working aggressively in the shadows.
Runner-Up: Dennis Lindsey, Utah Jazz (100-1)
The Why: Unconventional? Yes. Undeserving? Not at all. Lindsey retained Gordon Hayward, hired Quin Snyder, nabbed a decent return for the disgruntled Enes Kanter and, best of all, traded for Rudy Gobert. The end result is a Jazz team ready to play Western Conference playoff spoiler.
Most Improved Player: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Odds: 19-2
Most Improved Player awards can be capricious distinctions. Voters mostly try to single out the player who has most elevated his production and status, doing so without his performance being tainted by a puny sample size. As such, the field of candidates can be rather vast.
Jimmy Butler, despite the usual healthy dose of competition, is that player this season. Missing three to four weeks with a sprained left elbow, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, changes nothing. He's been good enough for long enough to be here.
It's the numbers that jump out upon first glance, with Butler averaging 20.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.7 steals. The only players to match those per-game benchmarks over the last five seasons are Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and James.
More so than his numbers, Butler's individual standing has exploded. Not only has he made the jump from overworked specialist to multifaceted All-Star, but he is, unequivocally, the Chicago Bulls' primary building block now.
Joakim Noah is on the wrong side of 30, Pau Gasol is speeding toward 35, and Derrick Rose, while just 26, cannot be counted on anymore. Though the Bulls expect him back this season after he suffered his third knee injury in less than three years, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune, the latest setback acts as an unofficial passing of the torch.
As Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley argued:
"Butler is a franchise talent on both ends of the floor—and the Bulls will have to treat him as such when he hits restricted free agency at season's end. Chicago has to keep a max-contract offer ready for his signature, because this franchise cannot proceed without him serving as its key component.
Rose's injury, in a lot of ways, should signal the end of one Bulls era and the beginning of another. With $41.4 million headed his way over the next two seasons, he'll still play a role in Chicago's next chapter.
But no player on this roster is more important to the franchise's present and future than Butler.
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Capable of changing the game on both ends of the floor, Butler is the Bulls' future.
Not bad for a player who, as of last season, appeared to peak at indispensable sidekick.
Runner-Up: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (25-2)
The Why: Green has gone from a second-round feel-good story to a max-contract candidate this summer. Enough said.
Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics
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Odds: 12-5
Let there be scoring.
Isaiah Thomas has put up insane reserve numbers while splitting his time between the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics. He's averaging 15.9 points and 3.9 assists per game on the season and been the quintessential spark plug since arriving in Boston, amassing 21.8 points and 5.8 assists through his first five games.
Separation from second-unit standouts like Jamal Crawford and Marreese Speights really starts to take shape when looking at Thomas' dual-team splits. The Suns scored at the rate of a top-three offense with him in the game, pumping in 108.8 points per 100 possessions. No big deal, though. They were built to score.
But Thomas' impact has held true in Boston. The Celtics are torching opponents for 112.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, which would rank first—no small feat considering they were tallying 100.9 (23rd) before he donned white and green for the first time.
Indeed, the sample sizes vary. Thomas also isn't going to win Self-Aware Player of the Year while putting in just over 42 percent of his field-goal attempts.
Still, this award exists for players like Thomas, a miniature Crawford who, by season's end, may help propel the rebuilding Celtics to an offensive revival and, most impressively, unanticipated playoff berth.
Runner-Up: Marreese Speights, Golden State Warriors (19-5)
The Why: Speights' per-36-minute splits are insane, and he's been more valuable to Golden State, the NBA's best team, than Andre Iguodala.
Rookie of the Year: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Odds: 1-10
Pretend for a minute that this season's Rookie of the Year race is an actual competition.
What's that? You can't? That's to be expected, because it isn't a competition.
Wiggins has this honor under lock and key, behind a steel-reinforced door that's guarded by a three-headed Kevin Garnett lookalike. No one is getting near it. Not with the rookie campaign he's having.
Although the Minnesota Timberwolves have been unwatchable at times, Wiggins is progressing rapidly, making the team's decision to trade Love look smarter by the game. He left his passive-aggressive play style in Kansas and has instead spent most of his days attacking without hesitation, standing up to various tests time after time.
Few will soon forget how well he defended Harden in a Feb. 23 loss to the Houston Rockets, or how many rims he's destroyed courtesy of a lightning-quick first step, or how his long-range accuracy has been deadlier than expected or how he's been able to adjust his game when playing on and off the ball.
For those after more concrete perspective, consider this: If Wiggins' numbers hold, he'll become the third player in NBA history to begin the season under 20 years of age and average at least 15 points, four rebounds, one steal and a usage rate north of 20.
Those other two players are Carmelo Anthony and James.
On that note, let's skip the formality of watching the rest of this season and give Wiggins the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy now. No use making him wait for what's already his.
Runner-Up: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (150-1)
The Why: Philadelphia's defense has, somehow, reached anti-tanking status. (Condolences to Mr. Hinkie.) Noel has been even better than advertised on that end.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
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Odds: 9-5
Over the last 10 seasons, not a single wingman has won Defensive Player of the Year. Recipients of the award have instead included a laundry list of paint-policing bigs. For a few years, it even looked like the NBA would be forced to rename it the Dwight Howard of the Year award.
That decade-long stereotype ends now. Sort of.
Green isn't the league's typical perimeter-oriented talent. He spends a lot of time guarding opposing wings and is listed at 6'7" (on stilts), but he's one of the few players who can guard every single position.
By "one of the few," we of course mean "one of two." A healthy and engaged James is the only player who can match Green's defensive dexterity. As Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney wrote when picking his Dwight Howard Defensive Player of the Year:
"The midseason field for this particular award is complicated by 1) the injury-abbreviated stints of a few top defenders, and 2) relative team underperformance for some otherwise impressive candidates. Green sidesteps both of these concerns. The sophomore forward is as versatile a defender as you’ll find, capable of handling matchups across all positions. He doesn’t just make the best defense in the league better. His skill and flexibility are the tactical centerpieces of all the Warriors do.
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Put even more simply, Green is the most valuable defender on the league's best defensive team. Opponents are shooting 6.6 percentage points below their season average when being guarded by him, and the Warriors defense regresses significantly when he's off the floor.
Such an impact is only heightened by the role Green plays. On any given possession, he could be picking up rival point guards off switches, chasing snipers off three-point lines, clogging dribble-drives and passing lanes or bodying up against every type of center imaginable, from DeAndre Jordan to Marc Gasol.
Given all Green has done and is capable of doing, it's only fair he be recognized accordingly.
Runner-Up: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (13-5)
The Why: Show me a player who has been a more consistent defensive force over the last 20 years, and I'll show you a mind-manufactured mutant who exists only in theory.
Coach of the Year: Mike Budenholzer, Atlanta Hawks
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Odds: 2-1
Mike Budenholzer is at the center of the Atlanta Hawks going from a surefire first-round playoff exit to the Eastern Conference's best team in almost no time at all. Assuming they don't sleepwalk through the latter quarter of this season, these Hawks will finish with the highest winning percentage in franchise history.
Beyond this, they're just super good, pinning themselves to championship company at every turn. Below, you'll find the list of every team that ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency this season:
- Golden State Warriors
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Atlanta Hawks
Two Western Conference giants and Atlanta.
Budenholzer has the Hawks playing a selfless brand of basketball in which the ball moves frequently and crisply, and no one player's stats are drummed up by design. His rotations are bold, featuring one-in, four-out lineups that often become zero-in, five-out combinations, even if it means asking Al Horford to knock down corner three-pointers.
It's almost like Budenholzer is a clipboard-carrying genius who doubles as a juggler of egos and play-style expansion. We'll defer to Atlanta's Kyle Korver here, courtesy of USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt:
"I've always felt a majority of coaches are either players' coaches but they're not good X's and O's guys or they're super-heavy on the X's and O's but they have a hard time relating to players. There's some exceptions but not a lot. Bud is the best I've ever been around who gets both the locker room and X's and O's.
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What Korver's trying to say is this: Budenholzer is the NBA's Coach of the Year, minus the prospect of him being a one-hit wonder.
Runner-Up: Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors (5-2)
The Why: Kerr may have inherited a good team, but it's his offensive system and player balancing act that has made the Warriors great.
Most Valuable Player: James Harden, Houston Rockets
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Odds: 10-3
Flagrant shots to James' king jewels aside, Harden is the league MVP.
Never before has an MVP race been this tight this late into a season. Strong cases can be made for Harden, James, Westbrook and Stephen Curry, with a few others being mentioned as dark-horse fodder. But when factoring in the body of work to date, Harden has inched ahead of everyone else.
Part of this rise is statistical. In addition to leading the league in scoring and posting gaudy lines regularly, Harden ranks fourth in player efficiency rating and first in win shares. Five of the last six MVPs have led the league in win shares.
Context is the other, more important part of this.
Houston lost two of its top four scorers over the offseason in Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, and Dwight Howard has missed a career-high 27 games thus far, with more absences to come. And yet the Rockets, with Harden as their lifeline, remain in play for a top-three playoff spot, the importance of which cannot be overstated.
Injuries and roster subtractions can derail entire seasons. It wasn't until James got healthy that the Cavaliers began to dominate, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are left clinging to eighth-place postseason hopes in the wake of injuries to both Kevin Durant and Westbrook.
Of all other possible choices, Harden has done the most with the least. He has no superstar sidekick right now—no point guard he can defer to, no clear second in command he can count on. That the Rockets are still smack dab in the center of championship discussions can only be described as incredible—an extraordinary feat headlined by an extraordinary player.
Runner-Up: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (17-4)
The Why: This isn't about ensuring the Warriors win our unofficial Runner-Up of the Year award. It's about recognizing that Curry is still the one player Golden State can ill-afford to lose.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games for March 2.
