The 6 Most Dangerous Teams in Projected 2015 NBA Playoff Picture
The 2015 NBA playoffs are shaping up to be a real slobberknocker, with more than half of the projected field capable of bringing home the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Though the Eastern Conference's final few playoff squads won't drive fear into opponents' hearts, just about every other team could go on a deep run if they draw the right matchups. The West bracket figures to be particularly brutal, as all eight projected competitors could feasibly represent the conference in this year's NBA Finals.
Which teams have the most potential to wreak havoc during the postseason? Based on top-end talent, roster depth, season-long production and flexibility in playing styles, six stand out as the most dangerous at the beginning of March.
Though injuries figure to shake up this picture between now and the start of the playoffs, no team will be excited to draw one of these six in a first-round matchup.
Honorable Mentions
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All three of the following teams are missing one of their best players due to injuries at the moment. Each of those players is expected to return before the end of the regular season, but the uncertainty surrounding them is enough to bump their respective squads down a notch in this conversation.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls managed to dodge a serious bullet with Derrick Rose's torn meniscus. After undergoing surgery Friday morning, Bulls general manager Gar Forman announced the point guard should return within four to six weeks.
As Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin wrote following Rose's surgery, the Bulls can't stack up to the Atlanta Hawks or Cleveland Cavaliers if the 2011 Most Valuable Player isn't "healthy and playing consistently." Aaron Brooks and Kirk Hinrich aren't exactly Finals-caliber starting floor generals, to say the least.
Assuming Rose doesn't encounter any complications during the next month, however, no Eastern Conference powerhouse will enjoy drawing the Bulls on its side of the playoff bracket. In fact, the point guard's absence could help galvanize a deep postseason run for Chicago, as Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding suggests, by helping the team become more in tune with its desired style of play.
Houston Rockets
At the end of January, the Houston Rockets discovered edema (a fluid buildup) in Dwight Howard's right knee. At the time, Howard suggested he'd be back in six to eight weeks, putting his theoretical timetable somewhere between the middle and end of March.
Four weeks into that timetable, Jonathan Feigen of the Chronicle reports that Howard is still limited to work on a weight-controlled treadmill and swimming, noting he is "not yet scheduled to increase his rehabilitation to on-court drills." As BBallBreakdown's Nathan Walker notes, the Rockets likely aren't making it out of the West playoff gauntlet without a healthy Howard manning the middle.
With Howard on the court, the Rockets have a net rating of plus-6.9—which would be the league's second-best mark—and they give up nearly four more points per 100 possessions with him sidelined. If he returns to Houston's lineup without any complications, the prospect of battling him and top MVP candidate James Harden in a seven-game series should give opponents night terrors.
Indiana Pacers
Seven months after shattering his lower right leg in a horrific accident during a Team USA scrimmage, Indiana Pacers forward Paul George went through a full practice with his teammates at the end of February. He's targeting a mid-March return to action, according to Jared Wade of 8Points9Seconds.com.
At the moment, the Pacers are locked in a six-way battle for one of the East's final two playoff spots, so George's return could help push them over the top. As Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley notes, Indiana won't necessarily need him to regain his superstar form right away, as the team "has started learning how to play without him."
If George does hit the ground running, though, Godspeed to whichever Eastern Conference powerhouse draws Indiana as a first-round opponent. The Pacers might lack the firepower to knock off the Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks, but the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls would all be on upset alert.
Atlanta Hawks
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Despite holding a whopping 10-game lead over the Eastern Conference's next-closest team, the Atlanta Hawks still have their fair share of skeptics.
Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher and Howard Beck believe the Hawks' lack of size could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, especially given the other top teams' respective frontcourts. Eleven-year NBA veteran Brian Scalabrine suggested defense could be a potential stumbling block for Atlanta, highlighting subpar marks defending the restricted area and the three-point line in particular.
Here's a newsflash, nonbelievers: The Hawks aren't a fluke. They might not waltz their way into the NBA Finals—hell, they might not even make it to the NBA Finals—but they're not to be taken lightly.
Atlanta is just one of two teams to rank among the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, joining the Golden State Warriors. It should thus come as no surprise that the Hawks are tied for the league's second-best net rating (plus-6.5), trailing only the Splash Brothers and Co.
They might lack the requisite size to go toe-to-toe with Cleveland's Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins or Chicago's Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, but the same is true in reverse. No team is equipped to guard the five-out look Atlanta trots out routinely, as the Indiana Pacers so woefully demonstrated in their first-round series with the Hawks last year.
Atlanta doesn't have a LeBron James-esque superstar, but that's of no concern to forward Paul Millsap.
"Give me four or five really good players over one superstar," he told Michael Lee of The Washington Post. "I will take that any day. It gives you a lot of comfort."
With Millsap and Al Horford manning the middle, the scorching-hot Kyle Korver bombing away from deep, DeMarre Carroll's lockdown defense and Jeff Teague readying his Hulk-like transformation into "Playoff Teague," no team will want any part of Atlanta in the playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Remember when the Cleveland Cavaliers were 19-20 in mid-January, leading to no shortage of scorching-hot takes about the futures of Kevin Love and head coach David Blatt?
About that...
Cleveland proceeded to win 18 of its next 22 games—and one of those four losses came without LeBron James and Kyrie Irving—solidifying itself as a legitimate title contender. The midseason addition of Timofey Mozgov provides the team with some much-needed rim protection, while J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert both look invigorated since escaping the basketball prison known as the New York Knicks.
Since Jan. 15, the Cavaliers have the NBA's best offense and 11th-best defense, leading to a league-high net rating of plus-10.5. They've notched victories over the Los Angeles Clippers, Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors in that stretch, seemingly sending a message to the rest of the league with the latter victory.
As Smith told reporters following the win over Golden State, however, beating the team with the NBA's best record was just another day at the office for Cleveland:
"We don't really want to send a message to anybody right now. We just want to keep impressing ourselves. I'm sure the rest of the league looked at it like, 'Oh my God, they beat arguably the best team in the league,' but we feel as though we're the best team.
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As tends to be the case with LeBron's teams, everything starts and ends with the four-time MVP. And since taking off a career-high eight games to rest his body, he's been his typical world-crushing self, averaging 27.6 points on 49.1 percent shooting, 6.7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.8 treys over his past 21 contests.
There's no telling how the Cavs' complementary stars—namely Irving and Love—will react to the pressure of the playoffs, having never experienced it to date. So long as James keeps taking no prisoners, however, the Cavaliers are fully capable of blasting their way through the Eastern Conference playoff field and earning him his fifth straight NBA Finals berth.
Golden State Warriors
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Looking for a reason to doubt the Golden State Warriors' championship candidacy? Good luck. You're going to need a while.
Everything for Golden State starts with its Splash Brothers: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The former has been a top-three MVP candidate for a grand majority of the season, while the latter is making a fool of anyone who criticized the Dubs for not flipping him in a Kevin Love trade this past summer.
Curry and Thompson have combined for 355 triples this season—ranking first and third, respectively, in made threes across the league. They've been so prolific from downtown, they're ahead of five entire teams in terms of made treys.
In large part due to the Splash Brothers, Golden State touts the league's second-best offense, rattling home 109.5 points per 100 possessions on the year. As if that wasn't terrifying enough for any prospective playoff foe, the Warriors also allow a league-low 97.7 points per 100 possessions, making them the NBA's lone team with a top-three offense and defense.
Curry and Thompson generate most of the headlines, but Draymond Green's versatility as the starting 4 is what helped Golden State transform from a good team last season into a powerhouse this year. The Michigan State product has been a defensive nightmare this season, holding opponents to just 39.3 percent shooting overall and 26.0 percent from beyond the arc.
On the year, the Warriors' starting five of Curry, Thompson, Green, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut has a league-best plus-19.2 net rating, averaging 113.8 points per 100 possessions offensively while only conceding 94.7 points per 100. With reserves like Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Marreese Speights and David Lee at their disposal, the Dubs have no discernible weakness to exploit in the playoffs.
Ultimately, Golden State's title run will come down to health. If Bogut makes it through the postseason in one piece, the Warriors will be damn near impossible to stop in a seven-game series. Losing Curry, Thompson, Green or Bogut, however, could be a death knell to the Dubs' championship hopes.
Memphis Grizzlies
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If NBA championships were awarded based on style points, the Memphis Grizzlies wouldn't sniff the title this year. What they lack in flash, however, they make up for with grit and grind.
With 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol leading the way, the Grizzlies are once against smothering opponents, limiting them to just 100.1 points per 100 possessions. They're in line to have a top-10 defense for the fifth straight season, making them the only team that can make such a claim over that span.
Unlike past years, however, the Grizzlies aren't relying on a top-tier defense to compensate for their dismal offense. Their offensive rating of 103.8 puts them barely outside the league's top 10, although they're one of just six teams with top-12 ratings on both sides of the ball.
The biggest change is the man known as Big Spain. Gasol's averaging a career-high 18.2 points on 49.6 percent shooting in his contract year. With Zach Randolph routinely spitting out double-doubles and point guard Mike Conley putting up yet another sneaky-good year, the Grizzlies' Big Three isn't one to sneeze at.
Additionally, don't underrate the impact of Memphis' mid-January acquisition of Jeff Green, who is providing the team with a much-needed infusion of athleticism. The Georgetown product's presence makes the Grizzlies that much more versatile, as Sports Illustrated's Rohan Nadkarni writes:
"Variety especially is the spice of life in the playoffs. In seven-game series, the ones the Grizzlies have fell short in, offenses become more and more predictable as the games wear on. This season, Memphis is better equipped to mix up what they do. They can survive a three-point shootout, see if Green can create his own shot from the wing, or keep it at the elbow with Gasol.
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Memphis won't enter the postseason with the same fanfare as Atlanta, Cleveland or Golden State, but sleep on this team at your own peril. The grit-and-grind Grizzlies have become hellacious on both sides of the court, making them a nightmare matchup for just about every opponent.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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If the Oklahoma City Thunder wind up staving off all challengers and locking up a playoff bid, they could be one of the most terrifying No. 8 seeds in league history.
It all starts with Russell Westbrook, the walking triple-double who has somehow managed to keep this team afloat with Kevin Durant in and out of the lineup. During February, OKC's bottle rocket of a point guard averaged a preposterous 31.2 points on 45.7 percent shooting, 10.3 assists and 9.1 rebounds.
Once Durant returns from his latest foot ailment, the Thunder will have two of the league's best players at their disposal on a nightly basis. Having multiple superstars capable of dominating a game makes OKC a nightmarish draw for any playoff opponent, as defenses can't focus their attention solely on shutting down one main threat.
In addition, the moves OKC made at the trade deadline—acquiring Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin, Steve Novak and Kyle Singler—turned the team's biggest weakness (bench depth) into yet another strength.
ESPN.com's Royce Young can't help but wonder if this is the deepest Thunder squad yet, writing:
"They've always had two things going for them—No. 35 and No. 0—but since the trade of James Harden, they have had issues finding consistent second unit production. Reggie Jackson was that guy at times, but we all know how that turned out. So the Thunder have taken a new approach, not relying on a specific sixth man but a collection of high-level role players.
Kanter, Augustin, Singler, Dion Waiters, Nick Collison, Anthony Morrow, Mitch McGary—when Durant and starting center Steven Adams return, the Thunder could legitimately go 11 or 12 deep. That's Spurs-ian depth, combined with two of the top five players in the world. That makes the Thunder one potentially terrifying team.
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If Golden State's reward for earning the West's No. 1 seed is drawing the Thunder as a first-round matchup, the Warriors should already be lobbying NBA commissioner Adam Silver for a new playoff-seeding system.
Making a deep run won't be easy without home-court advantage in any round, but with Westbrook, Durant and a bevy of strong complementary players, OKC could still do it.
Portland Trail Blazers
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You likely haven't heard the Portland Trail Blazers frequently mentioned among the top-tier title contenders this season. In large part, their bench deserves the blame for that lack of recognition.
On the year, Portland's reserves rank 29th in points per game (25.9), per HoopsStats.com, ahead of only the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Blazers rely upon their bench for a paltry 15.8 minutes per night, tied with Cleveland and the Chicago Bulls for the league's second-lowest total.
When Chris Kaman and Steve Blake are your two most reliable options off the bench, it's not hard to see why Portland leans so heavily on its starting lineup. Those starters have a net rating of plus-11.5 on the year, tied for the fourth-best mark among any five-man lineup that has played at least 300 minutes.
That's what makes the Blazers' trade-deadline acquisition of former Denver Nuggets guard Arron Afflalo such a dangerous move. As Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley writes, Portland went all-in on championship contention by acquiring the prospective free agent:
"As good as Afflalo is, he'll be just another piece for the Blazers. The more weapons they can throw at a defense, the harder they'll be to contain.
Portland can shred teams from distance with its collection of shooters, bully them inside with Aldridge and Robin Lopez or beat them off the dribble with Lillard. Afflalo adds to that arsenal with a deadly in-between game that gives Portland a weapon it didn't have
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Just a handful of games into his Portland career, Afflalo is justifying the gamble. Look no further than the team-high 16 points he scored in the second half of the win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night.
Without the UCLA product, the Blazers figured to be one piece short of true title contention. With him in tow, however, few teams can match up against Portland's top six players, making the Blazers a dangerous playoff draw for any opponent.
All statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through games played March 1.
