How Much Does Amar'e Stoudemire Have Left in the Tank?
Amar'e Stoudemire is once again a hot commodity, posing a question not at all dissimilar to the one asked nearly five years ago: Does he have enough basketball left in the tank to warrant such popularity?
After almost two weeks of fence-straddling, the New York Knicks reached a buyout agreement Sunday with the 32-year-old big man, according to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola, ending a marriage plagued by injuries, harmful haste and unmet expectations since it began in 2010.
On the Knicks, Stoudemire was a financial millstone, a cross the franchise needed to bear into this summer. Though his work ethic is well documented and appreciated across New York, he became a number.
His five-year, $99.7 million deal was a symptom of the Knicks' half-baked plot to become playoff staples. His $23.4 million salary this season was a final steppingstone, one last hurdle the Knicks needed to clear before their future could actually begin.
Update: Monday, Feb. 16 at 9:45 p.m. ET by Alec Nathan
According to Real GM's Shams Charania, Stoudemire is headed to the Dallas Mavericks:
-- End of Update --
Now that Stoudemire is officially gone, the Knicks start the process of moving on, still looking ahead to this summer and the cap relief it promises. As for Stoudemire himself, a free agent once more, there is no shortage of outside interest, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
In addition to the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns, Isola says the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors are expected to register interest.
It's amazing what can happen when a cap-crippling price tag is removed from the equation.
Stoudemire's abilities have seldom come under siege over the last half-decade. It's his body—more specifically, his surgically repaired knees—that anchored his superstar free fall.
The Knicks were 179-186 in the time since signing Stoudemire. Of those possible 365 regular-season games, he played in just 255, missing more than 100, accounting for almost one-third of his New York tenure.
While Stoudemire leaves having averaged 17.3 points in 29.1 minutes per game, his numbers are inflated thanks to a prolific 2010-11 campaign, during which he appeared in 78 of 82 tilts and pumped in 25.3 points a contest. It's the last three seasons that are a more accurate depiction of the player he is now.
Injuries, strategically placed rest, fumbled opportunities, reserve duty and sporadic offensive outbursts are all harbingers of his performance over that time. And yet, as a glorified reserved since 2012-13, Stoudemire has proved productive, averaging 12.4 points and 5.5 rebounds on 55.8 percent shooting, posting a player-efficiency rating of 19.8.
No other player logging under 25 minutes per game (minimum 125 appearances) cleared 12 points and five rebounds during this span. Stoudemire's PER also ranks third among all qualified players who averaged under 25 minutes over the last three seasons.
Allow us to also list all the players since 2012-13 who are shooting north of 55 percent from the floor while registering a usage rate greater than 20 percent:
- Amar'e Stoudemire
- Dwight Howard
So, yeah...
Some of what Stoudemire does at the power forward position is admittedly outdated. His mid-range jumper is no longer regarded as highly, and it's nowhere near as effective as it was in years past. Stoudemire is shooting 30.9 percent outside 10 feet on the season, and he's never developed a three-point shot the way fellow power forwards Serge Ibaka and LaMarcus Aldridge have.
Playing him also demands defensive sacrifice. Stoudemire is one of those players who often tries, but just cannot grasp the concept of rotating or defending off screens. He's wont to chase rebounds rather than contest shots as well. To his credit, though, he's toward the middle of the pack in rim protection among players facing at least five such field-goal attempts per night.
Still, this isn't about what Stoudemire has never done. It's about what he can still do. And he can still make an impact on the offensive end.
New York's offense actually approached respectable with him on the floor this season. Though the Knicks rank 27th in efficiency, tallying 101.9 points per 100 possessions, they're at 106.8 when he plays. That would rank 12th in league.
This is all despite being an iffy fit (at best) for the Knicks' triangle offense. Stoudemire is ill equipped to make passes out of the post in volume, nor is he at his best when he's not a pick-and-roll threat.
Only 10 percent of his offensive touches have come as the roll man this season. That's around the bottom quarter of the league among players with at least 10 such touches. But he's scoring 1.05 points per possession in those scenarios. That's just outside the top 50.
All five of the mentioned options—Clippers, Mavericks, Suns, Spurs and Warriors—run pick-and-rolls more frequently than the Knicks. Each offers an interesting fit if prepared to use Stoudemire primarily as a pick-and-pop and pick-and-roll option.
| Mavericks | 28.9 | 6.8 |
| Clippers | 22.7 | 7.4 |
| Spurs | 20.4 | 5.9 |
| Suns | 19.7 | 4.9 |
| Warriors | 18.7 | 6.6 |
| Knicks | 16.8 | 6.3 |
Both the Spurs and the Warriors project as long shots. The Warriors have the league's best record and numerous players who would see minutes ahead of Stoudemire up front, while the Spurs are unlikely to roll the dice on a contributor who doesn't move the ball particularly well.
The Suns are devoid of a post presence. Their screen-and-roll attack is strong, but its effectiveness is dwarfed by the absence of a legitimate roll man. A reunion with Stoudemire adds another dynamic to their already-potent offense.
But the Mavericks and Clippers need to be seen as front-runners. For one, ESPN New York's Ian Begley already has Dallas pegged as Stoudemire's top choice:
Mostly, though, both teams offer the right combination of playing time, offensive fit and postseason potential, the latter of which is extremely important to Stoudemire.
"Father Time is ticking," Stoudemire said after his final game with the Knicks, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. "You want to try to take advantage of good health when you can and try to win a championship when you can."
Immediately, the Clippers can promise Stoudemire more action. Blake Griffin is on the sidelines recovering from surgery on his right elbow, and Stoudemire is a significant offensive upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu and Glen Davis.
More long-term minutes will be available with the Mavericks, though. DeAndre Jordan and Griffin, when healthy, combine to soak up 72 percent (69.1) of the available 96 frontcourt minutes per game. Dallas' starting duo, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler, account for just 63 percent (60.5) of all possible burn up front.
Then again, while the Mavericks can promise more playing time, the role they can offer is uncertain. They run a lot of pick-and-rolls, but more than 75 percent of those plays are dedicated to the ball-handlers. Their primary playmaker, Rajon Rondo, is both injured and better in reputation than practice, and they don't rely on heavy usage rates from traditional bigs.
Chandler has fit so well with the Mavericks in large part because he fills a need on defense as a rim protector and help defender. Stoudemire is neither, and expecting him to adapt his skill set in any way is unrealistic, as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes writes:
"Stoudemire may not be able to diversify his game enough to have a real role on a team that has an up-to-date offensive approach.
No matter where he ends up, his role will have to be kept simple. He's always been turnover-prone, and his turnover rate is up to an alarming 14.7 percent this year, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Give him the ball in positions to score quickly, and good things happen. Ask him to make a decision, and you're begging for a mistake.
"
Piloted by a top-flight floor general in his prime (Chris Paul) and sitting in the top 10 of usage rate for roll men, the Clippers are, without question, Stoudemire's best chance at post-prime redemption.
That brings us back to our initial query: Does Stoudemire have enough left in the tank to make the most of that opportunity?
Perception is everything here.
Stoudemire has survived most of this season without any major setbacks. Sure, he's missed 17 games. But there's no telling how many of those absences were purely precautionary measures enacted by a Knicks team that, frankly, had little use for an established impact player.
Besides, Los Angeles isn't New York. Dallas isn't New York. Phoenix isn't New York.
Wherever Stoudemire goes, he'll finally be free from the shackles his contract became. That deal engendered expectations. And so long as he was on that deal, he would forever be held against its standards, no matter how unrealistic or blasphemous they became.
This next go-round, wherever it takes him, will be different. Stoudemire can log between 15 and 25 minutes and not be considered a failure. He can play the part of offensive specialist and not be deemed outdated, detrimental or disappointing.
What we're basically wondering is whether Stoudemire can remain the same persuasive scorer he is now, capable of not carrying an entire squad but of moving its needle in the right direction for stretches at a time.
An answer to the question was given long ago, and nothing has changed. Stoudemire has that much left in him. It's just that this time, outside of the Knicks' vacuum, what he has left will finally be enough for the team he's giving it to.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
