Top 10 NFL Free-Agent Targets That the Atlanta Falcons Must Sign
Atlanta has a ton of holes on its team and needs to fill some of them with re-signings and outside free-agent signings. Quite a few players could help Atlanta turn around quite quickly.
Ten stand out above the rest, though.
The top 10 players for the Falcons will be ranked based on need level, injury and off-field history, All-Pro potential and scheme fit. For each category, the players will be given a ranking level of 1-10. The one with the most total points will end up as the No. 1 overall free-agent target for the Falcons this offseason.
You might notice a couple of guys missing, but that's because I'm projecting them to be franchise-tagged or just make way too much money to make sense for the Falcons. They include Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants, Justin Houston from the Chiefs, Dez Bryant from the Cowboys and Demaryius Thomas from the Broncos.
10. Antone Smith, Running Back
1 of 10
Need Level: 6
One of Atlanta's biggest needs is explosion from the offense and big plays. While Antone Smith isn't ideal as a running back on every down, he fits the need as a change-of-pace running back who can attack from the slot receiver role as well.
Injury/Off-Field History: 8
Before breaking a bone in his leg during the 2014 season, Smith had yet to miss a game from injury or off-field issues. He's a team leader on and off the field and was one of the Falcons captains during the 2014 season for his performance on special teams.
All-Pro Potential: 2
At 29 years old, it's unlikely that he'll become an All-Pro player right away. It's also unlikely that he can sustain his volume of 50-plus-yard scores. He's a great player, though, and could somehow be that explosive Darren Sproles-type option teamed with Devonta Freeman and/or a draft pick.
Scheme Fit: 7
Smith's vision makes him a much better running back fit for the zone-blocking scheme that new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan runs. He's not ideal as a primary back because of his size (5'9", 192 lbs), but if the Falcons get him the right lanes to cut through, he could be dangerous.
Total: 23
Smith isn't the most productive or best free agent that the Falcons need to re-sign, but he provides value and leadership to the team. If the Falcons could re-sign him to a three-year deal for something like $4.0 million total, it would be more than worth it.
Smith's big-play potential alone is worth that kind of money. His leadership and special teams prowess are just the icing on the cake. Keeping Smith in Atlanta should be one of the highest priorities for the Falcons during the 2015 offseason.
9. Dwight Lowery, Free Safety
2 of 10
Need Level: 8
For the Dan Quinn defensive scheme, free safety is almost as important as pass-rushers are. Without the umbrella helping to cover over the top, the scheme as a whole is vulnerable. Lowery would be familiar with the role, as it's similar to what he played in New York with Rex Ryan.
Injury/Off-Field History: 6
Lowery's biggest drawback comes from his injury history. He's had issues with concussions for the couple of seasons prior to his adventure to Atlanta. However, he does have the leadership that the Falcons need in the back end of the defense to help fill the void should William Moore go down again.
All-Pro Potential: 5
As a former cornerback, Lowery could be the ideal safety for Quinn's defense. He has great range at safety and would allow Quinn to vary schemes more than he did previously. Lowery also has playmaking potential as evidenced by his one sack, two forced fumbles, two interceptions and five pass deflections in 2014.
Scheme Fit: 6
The scheme requires a rangy, intelligent safety who can lead the team from the back end of the defense. Lowery has these traits, but the question of how long it would take for him to adjust is the real question. He does have the range and man-coverage ability to be effective, at least for the short term.
Total: 25
Lowery should be a high priority for the Falcons in the re-signing period. Getting him back would be helpful as they try to build their 2015 defense. The biggest spots missing from that defense are free safety, weak-side linebacker, strong-side linebacker and both defensive end spots.
Re-securing Lowery's services could take five holes and turn them into four with one strategic, cost-effective signing. Ideally, he would sign a contract similar to one that Adam "Pacman" Jones signed with the Bengals at around $3 million per year for three years.
8. Kenny Britt, Wide Receiver
3 of 10
Need Level: 5
Finding a great No. 2 receiver to play across from Julio Jones should be near the top of the priorities pile for Atlanta. Kenny Britt has the potential to be a great No. 2 receiver if he can get his head on straight and play with a great quarterback in a receiver-friendly scheme.
Injury/Off-Field History: 4
While Britt has missed a ton of games throughout his career due to injuries to his knee or issues with coaching staffs that have led to suspensions, the Falcons could have a much more mature version of him. Terry Robiskie and Roddy White could also be the ideal mentors to help him get his career back on track.
All-Pro Potential: 7
Athletically, Britt is like White in a lot of ways. He's fast enough to blow the top off a defense, and he's physical enough to make the catches over the middle. Combine that with 6'3", 230-pound size, and you could have a scary combination at receiver in Britt and Jones.
Scheme Fit: 10
Kyle Shanahan loves wide receivers. He will make sure that they get production, and with Matt Ryan flinging the ball around, the Falcons could easily give Britt enough targets to be a highly productive receiver. Britt wins with the deep ball and could be an ideal receiver to team with Jones in the offense.
Total: 26
So long as Britt's off-field issues don't pop up if he winds up with the Falcons, they would have an ideal No. 2 receiver who could give them at least 60 catches, 800 yards and six touchdowns every season. With that kind of production, a contract of three years and $15-17 million seems realistic to offer.
If he explodes statistically while still under contract, just let him play it out without any issues before re-signing him or letting him walk. Also, if you make the contract incentive- or salary-heavy, he would be forced to mind his P's and Q's or be cut quickly.
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7. Jordan Cameron, Tight End
4 of 10
Need Level: 7
Tight end is a huge component of the Kyle Shanahan offense. However, the Falcons have bigger needs at linebacker and defensive end that are causing this to be ranked a little bit lower. They also have someone who could break out in Levine Toilolo, if he can develop well under tight ends coach Wade Harman and Shanahan.
Injury/Off-Field History: 5
Off the field, Jordan Cameron is a great fit for the Falcons as he's a captain-type athlete who works his butt off. His injuries are scary, though. He has a concussion history that hurts the overall score. The Falcons were able to help Dwight Lowery with his concussions in 2014, but can lightning strike twice?
All-Pro Potential: 8
In Shanahan's offense, Cameron had his career high in yards per reception despite having just 24 receptions. If he could get his receptions up to around 65 again while having his average dip to around 15.0 yards per catch, the Falcons could easily have an All-Pro in 2015.
Scheme Fit: 7
The only drawback with Cameron in Shanahan's scheme is the lack of blocking ability. He wouldn't be ideal as a blocking tight end except on zone plays. Since he'd have experience in the scheme, he could help translate it, though.
Total: 27
Cameron would easily be the best tight end in Atlanta since Tony Gonzalez retired. The Toilolo experiment has failed, and Shanahan tends to love using multiple tight ends on the field. Atlanta should make sure it locks up a starter for the spot before the draft.
As good as Cameron is and can be, he would need a prove-it deal with a trigger into a bigger deal. Something like five years, $40 million would work, but the first year is for $4 million guaranteed, and then there is a huge second-year option bonus that works like a big signing bonus for a second deal.
6. Torrey Smith, Wide Receiver
5 of 10
Need Level: 5
Signing a No. 2 receiver across from Julio Jones isn't a top-tier need in 2015, but in 2016 and beyond, it will become one of the team's biggest needs. The Falcons should someone similar to a young Roddy White across from Jones, and Torrey Smith fits the bill.
Injury/Off-Field History: 10
Smith hasn't missed a single game in his entire career and has been productive because he meshes well with his quarterback both on and off the field. Off the field, he has also been a Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee for his charitable efforts.
All-Pro Potential: 7
Smith has been a model of consistency similar to what White was during the 2007 to 2012 seasons. However, he doesn't see the volume of targets that White saw during that period. Smith's value as a deep threat combined with his red-zone ability could make him a dark horse for an All-Pro spot as a Falcon.
Scheme Fit: 8
Whenever you give Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan a top-flight deep-ball receiver, you are giving him someone whom he will love to have for his scheme. Pairing Smith with Jones would give the Falcons two receivers who could destroy NFC South defenses in 2015.
Total: 30
Bringing in Smith may not be the smartest financial move as his contract would be something in the $7.5-to-8.5 million range, but the impact that he could make on games would be more than worth it. A four- or five-year deal would bring him past age 30 as well.
Smith is the receiver to get if the Falcons don't want to worry about a potential reclamation project but still want someone who can go up and get a deep ball. Atlanta has bigger needs for sure, but if it could land the former Maryland Terrapin, it could have a scary offense.
5. Sean Weatherspoon, Linebacker
6 of 10
Need Level: 9
Weak-side linebacker is the biggest need in the Falcons defense outside of the pass-rushing needs. Atlanta got demolished in 2014 on both the ground and through the air because of a lack of talent at the linebacker spots. The team's inability to cover tight ends and stuff the run properly shows the need here.
Injury/Off-Field History: 4
When it comes to his off-field history, Sean Weatherspoon is everything the Falcons want. He's a team captain for them and would fit in perfectly as the leader in the locker room, because that's the role he's held his entire career thus far with the Falcons.
All-Pro Potential: 10
When healthy, Weatherspoon is arguably the best 4-3 weak-side linebacker in the NFL. His 2011 season gave so much promise to his overall potential. But a scheme change and injuries throughout the 2012-2014 seasons have dampened a lot of hype on him. If he's 100 percent, he can be an All-Pro.
Scheme Fit: 9
Head coach Dan Quinn wants the Falcons to have speed, aggression and reckless abandon on defense. At weak-side linebacker, he needs someone who can cover receivers and play the run well. Weatherspoon would thrive in a role like this and should be a great fit if his speed has returned completely.
Total: 32
Weatherspoon is a great player and could be a superstar if he stayed healthy. He is worth keeping, but his overall contract situation dictates giving him a one-year deal and seeing what he can do based on a "prove-it" type of structure.
The Falcons do need to bring him back, though, even if it's just for his leadership. Weatherspoon is a smart, fiery leader for the Falcons who could turn the defense around just by his presence on the field. As Coach Quinn says, "We're trying to collect more great players, not the other way around."
4. Brandon Graham, Defensive End
7 of 10
Need Level: 10
Pass-rusher is easily the Falcons' biggest need. However, the team has to pick a side. Much like Jerry Hughes previously, Brandon Graham is an ideal fit for the "Leo" end role in head coach Dan Quinn's scheme. Graham would be a premier rusher for the Falcons in this scheme.
Injury/Off-Field History: 7
Graham's biggest risks come from his injury history. He's suffered too many knee injuries early in his career to say that there isn't any risk. The saving grace comes from the fact that he hasn't missed a game in three seasons and looks like he's finally 100 percent healthy.
All-Pro Potential: 8
Graham is just waiting for the right opportunity and role to take his game to the next level. He has 13-15 sack potential depending on usage, and that alone could make him an All-Pro. If he sets the edge effectively on top of that, he could be a perennial Pro Bowl talent.
Scheme Fit: 9
As a Leo in Coach Quinn's scheme, Graham would be able to set the edge and rush the passer from the weak side of the defense. He's intelligent enough to drop into coverage at times if need be as well. The Falcons could have their ideal John Abraham replacement in Graham.
Total: 34
Graham should look for a deal somewhere in the five-year, $35 million range that would allow him to be the No. 1 pass-rusher along a defensive line. With Ra'Shede Hageman and Jonathan Massaquoi already looking like solid pieces to the potential puzzle, Graham could excel in Atlanta more than he realizes.
The Falcons have talent to surround and complement Graham. If they can bring him in on a fair deal, they could have one of the biggest steals in free agency over the past decade. Graham's potential as a No. 1 rusher in the 4-3 is off the charts.
3. Matt Bryant, Kicker
8 of 10
Need Level: 6
No matter how good a kicker is, it's not anything more than a "six" on the need scale. That's perfectly fine, though. The Falcons don't currently even have a kicker under contract and could benefit from re-signing Matt Bryant for 2015 and even 2016.
Injury/Off-Field History: 10
Bryant has had few injuries and no off-field issues. He's always been a beloved member of his teams and could be a captain for the Falcons easily in future seasons. There are no issues or drawbacks here for Bryant outside of age. But kickers can be old and still thrive.
All-Pro Potential: 10
He should have been the Falcons' sole All-Pro in 2014. Bryant had one of the best seasons for a kicker and should be able to continue with the same kind of efficiency until his leg power starts to wane. As Morten Andersen showed, that may not be until he turns 45-46.
Scheme Fit: 10
Bryant is a kicker. There's no real scheme here. He kicks the ball through the uprights. He does it efficiently from inside of 50 yards, as he didn't miss a single kick inside of 50 yards throughout the entire 2014 season. He's also effective kicking 50-plus-yard field goals, missing just two in 2014.
Total: 36
Ideally, the contract that Bryant signs is in that three-year, $10 million range and allows the Falcons to keep his cap hit for the 2015 season closer to $2 million than $4 million. If he wants to come back, he would receive player options for the last two years of the deal.
Assuming he plays for the next two seasons, the Falcons could have a kicker that other NFL teams are envious of—not because he can boom it in from anywhere, but because he has ice water running through his veins that could freeze a volcano.
2. Devin McCourty, Free Safety
9 of 10
Need Level: 8
In head coach Dan Quinn's defense, the umbrella safety in the middle of the field is the most important spot. With someone who can effectively play Cover 1 or Cover 3, the Falcons could allow the rest of the defense to take more chances and create more turnovers.
Injury/Off-Field History: 10
In his five-year career, Devin McCourty has missed just three games due to injuries. He was also the defensive captain for the Patriots. Off the field, he's just as reliable as he is on it. He and his brother Devin run a foundation to help find a cure for sickle cell anemia called Tackle Sickle Cell.
All-Pro Potential: 10
This one is a no-brainer. Outside of already being a two-time All-Pro, McCourty is the ideal fit for the Falcons' new scheme. He could flourish and allow the defense to take its play to the next level. Putting him next to Kemal Ishmael and William Moore would be fun to watch.
Scheme Fit: 10
Only one player in the entire NFL can cover better deep than McCourty can: Seattle's Earl Thomas. Second-best playing the exact same role as the first would be interesting to see. McCourty would be an ideal fit, though, and could allow Atlanta to run some unique blitz concepts, especially on third downs.
Total: 38
When the only thing holding back a potential free agent is the need level of the position, the Falcons should just go after him and try to make him their big free-agent signing. McCourty is everything that owner Arthur Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Coach Quinn want in a safety.
His ideal deal would be something along the lines of a five-year, $50 million contract where he accounts for a lower cap hit the first season and his biggest cap hits during Years 2 and 3. McCourty could change Atlanta's defense for the better, and that alone makes him worth the cost.
1. Pernell McPhee, Defensive End
10 of 10
Need Level: 10
As noted before, pass-rusher is the Falcons' biggest need. However, unlike Brandon Graham or Jerry Hughes, who would be ideal "Leo" ends, Pernell McPhee fits best as a strong-side end. The Falcons need both and could end up having a steal if McPhee isn't ridiculously expensive.
Injury/Off-Field History: 9
Outside of some minor injuries that kept him out of four games in 2012, McPhee has been an excellent fit for the NFL both on and off the field. He doesn't get arrested or suspended but does play like a madman and would be a great presence in the Falcons' locker room.
All-Pro Potential: 10
McPhee is a diamond in the rough. He was used in a versatile role in 2014 along the front seven for the Ravens. He could be a 14-15 sack player if given the opportunity. Make him the lead rusher in Atlanta and he could truly flourish.
Scheme Fit: 10
Dan Quinn would use McPhee in a similar fashion to how he used Michael Bennett in Seattle. He'd line up as the base defensive end on the strong side in base sets and as a defensive tackle or even as a blitzing linebacker in others. McPhee's versatility and talent make him an ideal fit.
Total: 39
Ideally, McPhee takes a deal similar to Bennett's Seattle deal in a five-year, $45 million pact where he can earn a ton of money by producing effectively over the first few seasons of his deal. McPhee would be the instant premier pass-rusher for the Falcons in the new scheme too.
Atlanta could dramatically transform its defense with McPhee in it. That alone makes him worth signing. Adding the first premier pass-rusher since John Abraham left after the 2012 season would easily help the Falcons improve their worst unit.
All stats used are either from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN, CFBStats or the NFL. All combine and pro-day info is courtesy NFL Draft Scout. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, College Football, NFL and the NFL draft.
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