Are the Warriors Still 1 Move Away from a Shot at the Title?
The Golden State Warriors have positioned themselves as the top dog in the Western Conference by having the NBA's best record and securing the top spots in offensive and defensive efficiency. Their production has blown expectations out of the water, but there is still half of the season remaining and anything can happen.
The biggest question that remains, (and Warriors’ fans and brass are holding their collective breaths), is whether center Andrew Bogut can remain healthy for the playoff run. The team holds a 32-4 record with him in the lineup, but the group doesn’t have the inside presence without the big Aussie leading to a 9-5 record with him missing.
Last season, the Warriors were very confident going into the campaign's final week until Bogut’s season ended during an 119-117 overtime loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on April 13, 2014. The Dubs fought hard in the first-round series vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, but they lost in Game 7 at Staples Center.
Bogut has already sat a month because of chondromalacia and bone edema in his right knee. He treated it with platelet-rich plasma (PRP) therapy and has responded with similar statistical results he had earlier in the season.
His shooting has actually improved from both the field and the free-throw line since his January return. His screen setting and facilitation have also been huge pluses for the offense.
His primary backup, Festus Ezeli, just recently returned from an extended absence because of a sprained left ankle. As you can remember, Ezeli missed the entire season in 2013-14 after having right knee surgery.
So, the big question is whether the Warriors are still one move away from a shot at the title, or are they content with the arsenal they possess? It is more complicated than it looks.
The Potential Questions
The number one question for Warriors' management is if they can afford to acquire another reserve big man. The team currently sits at a payroll of $73.4 million, and the luxury tax limit is $76.8 million.
With the upcoming payday set for Draymond Green, the Warriors look to be going over the luxury tax limit, even with the projected bump in next season’s salary cap.
Therefore, Golden State needs to be very economical in their search if they don’t want to receive the stiff penalty of becoming a “repeater” by going over in back-to-back seasons.
Per Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News:
Even with the past injuries to Bogut and Ezeli, do the Warriors make a move that might upset the rock-solid chemistry on this team? No major player would be on the move, but the shift may cause just enough of a rift to set things back.
Or the player they acquire may not seamlessly transition to the Coach Kerr style of play. They need an athletic big man who does the little things, sets screens and can play defense.
Unless a bottom feeder is willing to trade a player away on an expiring contract or has an excess at the center position, do the Warriors have enough to trade? With Leandro Barbosa back in the fold, only Brandon Rush and Ognjen Kuzmic look like they are fair game.
The Warriors could consider draft picks, since they will most likely be drafting in the later part of the first round for the next several years. However, they don’t want to limit their ability to upgrade in future years.
Staying the Course
Warriors brass may decide to ride out this run and hold on to all of their pieces. The team has a young nucleus that is growing, and general manager Bob Myers may not be excited with the potential selection of trade candidates.
With the NBA’s best record, Coach Kerr has the ability to rest Bogut, so he can avoid the wear and tear of the season's second half. The combination of lineups Kerr uses, especially with Marreese Speights at center, can fend off most of the challengers.
Per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle:
However, the David Lee and Speights pairing is not as fluid with the offense in that they settle for more jumpers and have less rim protection, per 82games.com. The ebb and flow of a Bogut-less offense or the absence of his rim protection on defense makes this a potential problem against teams with strong bigs like the Memphis Grizzlies or even the Utah Jazz.
Per Adam Lauridsen of the Mercury News:
"The Jazz exposed possibly the team’s only weakness — the inability to create offense when jump shots aren’t falling and penetration is cut off by an opposing defense packing the paint. It won’t be the last time the Warriors see this approach. The Warriors can hope to hide that weakness with better jump shooting, or they can try to fix it with greater toughness.
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Bogut is known for his history of injuries and freak accidents. He has not played every game in a season since his rookie year.
As a result, Ezeli needs time to develop his game and get comfortable with a bigger load in case the team needs him. He provides the necessary defensive element when Bogut is on the bench.
Per Kawakami of the Mercury News:
Ezeli has only appeared in 22 games during the past couple of years due to injuries, and he could very well be tutored by Bogut and the Warriors’ coaching staff to improve his offensive game. He won’t be as dynamic as Bogut in creating space with screens, but if he can begin to do some of the little things, it will significantly help.
Ezeli is currently averaging 4.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 0.8 BPG in 11.5 minutes.
Making the Trade
The Warriors don’t look like they are in any hurry to acquire a big man, but that could all change before the February 19 trade deadline. The team could also check to see if Jermaine O’Neal would like to return to the blue and gold, but he may be set to join the Dallas Mavericks.
With cap restrictions holding them back, there are very few big men that are on the market with the space Golden State has available. Realistically, the players available are either playing out the last year of their contract or stuck on the bottom of the depth chart.
Kevin Garnett has recently been mentioned as a possibility for the Warriors, as rumors are now persisting that the Brooklyn Nets may buy him out of his contract. He could be a fit, but chemistry issues or a reunion with his former coach, Doc Rivers, and the Los Angeles Clippers might prevent that.
So what is available in the $3 million-per-year range?
Kosta Koufos would be first in line, but he is the insurance policy for the Memphis Grizzlies’ starting center, Marc Gasol. If Myers could somehow pull off that deal, he would be a true magician.
They can also try to pry Aron Baynes out of San Antonio, who could be on his way out if the Spurs try to acquire Marc Gasol this offseason. He is another Australian big man like Bogut, and he is having somewhat of a breakout season.
A more realistic choice is the New Orleans Pelicans center Jeff Withey, who has a defensive presence and is currently stuck behind Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca. He currently averages 2.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG and 0.5 BPG in only 5.9 minutes.
Other low-cost options floating around could be Ryan Hollins of the Sacramento Kings, Justin Hamilton of the Miami Heat or Jerome Jordan of the Brooklyn Nets. These players are not upgrades to Ezeli but are healthy bodies.
But what about getting rid of Lee and his burdensome contract?
Even though Lee is being paid over $15 million this year and next, the Warriors wouldn't get a sound return for his services. Players like Channing Frye (who the Warriors pursued in free agency and is having a disappointing year), David West and Kevin Garnett (who will probably be bought out) are possibilities.
Per Kawakami of the Mercury News:
Since Lee can provide consistent scoring, rebounds and assists, the Warriors would be better off making a title run with him on the team. They can delay the trade possibilities until this summer, when Lee becomes an expiring contract and more marketable.
The Ultimate Decision
The Warriors are on pace to have the highest win total in franchise history. Unless the team falls apart during the second half of the season, Golden State will host most if not every series in the playoffs in front of arguably the most boisterous crowd in the Association.
The Warriors should try to acquire either Baynes or Withey for the right price, but they should not overpay. Myers doesn’t need to pick any available candidate, since the chemistry is so strong on the team.
Matt Steinmetz of The NBA Show on 95.7 FM The Game tweeted about how assistant general manager Travis Schlenk feels about which decisions are made and why chemistry plays a major part:
If Bogut starts to show any major signs of wear and tear, Coach Kerr needs to sit him immediately so he is fresh for the start of the second season. Ezeli needs to actually get on the court instead of sitting on the bench.
Teams with strong frontcourts like the Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs may be lying in wait for the Warriors. Bogut’s skills on both sides are necessary to advance to the later rounds.
So, unless the Warriors can find the right fit at the right price, fans need to start holding their breath in anticipation of Bogut making it through the remainder of this campaign with a clean bill of health.
If he is successful, the Warriors could be on their way to their first title run in 40 years.
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