5 Keys Oklahoma City Thunder Must Unlock to Make 2015 NBA Playoffs
As the All-Star break nears, the Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff picture. With the battle for the final spot heating up, the team will have to make some key adjustments during the second half to make it into the postseason.
At 25-25, the Thunder stand three games behind the Phoenix Suns for the eighth seed in the West. The New Orleans Pelicans are also in the running, as they are only one-and-a-half games behind Jeff Hornacek's boys. OKC had an opportunity to gain some ground on the Pels, but the two teams split their back-to-back showdowns this week with victories on each other's home court.
With Kevin Durant in and out of the lineup due to injuries, Russell Westbrook has been doing everything in his power to keep the Thunder afloat. He's third in the NBA in scoring (26.1 points per game), sixth in assists (7.6) and first in steals (2.3).
In his last two games, the Long Beach blur has tallied a ridiculous 93 points, 17 assists, 15 rebounds and five steals. According to ESPN.com, only the Pelicans' Anthony Davis and Miami Heat breakout star Hassan Whiteside have a better player efficiency rating than Westbrook's 28.82.
Unfortunately, for the Thunder to be the last team standing in this Triple Threat match for the eighth seed, they'll need more than Russ' MVP-caliber numbers. The team will need better consistency from the rest of the squad and might want to do some shopping before the trade deadline to add another piece or two.
Here's how the Thunder can make it to the big dance.
Keep Kevin Durant Healthy
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Twelve games.
That's the longest stretch Kevin Durant has played this season without having to sit out with an injury. Of the team's 50 contests, the reigning MVP has suited up for just 23 of them. Whether it's his foot, ankle or toe, injuries have hindered the league's best rhythm scorer.
Of course, when KD has managed to step on the court, he's been productive. He's averaging 25.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He's also shooting 50 percent from the field, including 37.1 percent from downtown. Those numbers were good enough to earn an All-Star spot as a reserve.
Still, if the Thunder are going to have any prolonged success in the second half, they'll need Durant to channel his inner Taylor Swift and shake off the injury bug. Head coach Scott Brooks will also have to be careful not to run his best player ragged. In the last five games he's played, The Durantula has logged a combined 206 minutes (an average of 41.2 minutes per game).
He played the entire second half of a gut-wrenching loss to the Pelicans on Feb. 7 and had moments down the stretch where he looked a bit spent. To his credit, Durant refused to use fatigue as a reason he couldn't get key shots to fall in the fourth, per Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman.
"I'm not making no excuses. I should have made those shots," Durant said. "Got good looks, missed layups, some open threes. It ain't cause I was in and out of the lineup. I just missed them."
If we've learned anything this season, it's that Durant is, indeed, human. The combination of injuries and a heavy workload is bound to take its toll.
The Thunder would be wise to ease up on their Durant dependency.
Improve 3-Point Shooting
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The Thunder's accuracy from behind the arc has been a big part of their effectiveness on offense. The team hasn't finished worse than 14th in three-point percentage for the past three seasons, and while last year's 36.1 percent from downtown was the worst effort since the 2011-12 season (35.8), OKC still finished 14th in the league.
This season is a different story. The team is struggling from behind the arc, converting just 32 percent (tied for 26th) of its attempts from three.
How important is three-point shooting to a team's success? Some stats: The NBA's top five three-point shooting teams are a combined 175-79 this season. All five would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The bottom five are a combined 99-154. None have a winning record, and Oklahoma City accounts for 25 of those 99 total wins.
Injuries have played a role in the team's struggles from deep. A bigger reason is the dearth of shooters on the roster. Beyond Serge Ibaka (39.6 percent), Anthony Morrow (37.9), and Durant (37.1), the team doesn't have another consistent three-point threat that opponents need to fear.
The club brought in Dion Waiters in early January to provide an offensive spark. While he's had some moments, they haven't come from downtown. The Syracuse guard is shooting just 27.1 percent from three-point land this season.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Lamb, statistically the team's fourth-best outside shooter (36 percent), has been out of the rotation for the last two months.
Whether it means shopping for another shooter or getting better play from guys like Waiters or Westbrook (27.8 percent), the Thunder need a boost in the three-point department.
Find a Scoring Option in the Post
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In Durant and Westbrook, the Thunder have two dynamic weapons who can score from nearly anywhere on the court. Ibaka continues to evolve as the club's third wheel. On paper, this offense should be able to beat you in a variety of ways.
Unfortunately, that's not the case. For all of the talent on this roster, the biggest thing OKC lacks is an offensive presence in the post. Ibaka, once the team's key paint patrolman, has decided to become more Kevin Love than Kevin McHale. To his credit, he's 24th in the league in three-point accuracy.
Still, Ibaka drifting more towards the perimeter has left a void down low. Steven Adams has emerged as the team's best interior offensive weapon, but he's only contributing 7.5 points per game. At 21 years old and in the midst of his second pro season, it will take some time for the big Kiwi to develop into the scorer he needs to be.
Beyond Adams, the cupboard is bare. Kendrick Perkins has averaged double-digits in scoring just once in 12 years. That was during the 2009-10 season when with the Boston Celtics.
It's no wonder the team was willing to break the bank to trade for Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
With Ibaka's improved three-point shooting drawing defenders out of the paint, a good post scorer could do some damage with all of that extra space. The trick is finding someone capable of making the most of those opportunities.
Take Advantage of Home Cooking
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Obviously, the biggest key to the Thunder's playoff hopes is winning. Fortunately, the scheduling gods have done Oklahoma City a favor in the second half. The club will play 20 of its final 32 games in the friendly confines of Chesapeake Energy Arena.
The team is 14-8 at home this season and 11-17 on the road. The Thunder will play just six games on the road against squads with a winning record going forward. Unfortunately, two of those six come against the Phoenix Suns, which means they won't have the home advantage against their most important opponent.
Still, the skids are greased for OKC to make a late-season run. The Thunder come out of the All-Star break with a nice litmus test game at home against the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 19. From there, the next three should be relatively easy: at the Charlotte Hornets and home clashes with the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers.
They then finish the month with roadies against the Portland Trail Blazers and the Suns. They have a legitimate chance at going 8-4 in February before opening March against the lowly Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers.
There wasn't a lot that bounced the Thunder's way in the first half. Injuries and inconsistent play put them in a hole they'll spend the rest of the year crawling out of. The home-friendly second-half slate could be their first real break of the season.
If they can't take advantage, there will be no excuses for why this team missed the playoffs.
Trade Reggie Jackson
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The Thunder need to find Reggie Jackson a new home for a number of reasons. First, after being denied his chance to be a full-time starter and seeing his sixth-man role handed over to Waiters, it is pretty clear Jackson doesn't have a future in Oklahoma City.
Second, Jackson will be a restricted free agent at season's end. His combination of youth (will be 25 in April) and abilities as a scorer will likely lead to a substantial payday. Yahoo Sports' Wojnarowski reported in November that the Boston College product could command a deal worth in the "$13 million-$14 million-plus annual range."
Even if Jackson's price tag has come down since then, any potential deal will likely be too rich for the Thunder to consider. After all, they already have his replacement in Waiters, who is under contract until the end of next season. Jackson's teammates have stressed the need for the point guard to remain professional in the face of adversity.
"We're all professionals here, man. We know the nature of this game," said Durant, per NBA.com's David Aldridge. "We're not here to...this not day care. We're not babying anybody here."
Perkins is familiar with the distractions Jackson has endured.
"Like I tell Reggie, shoot, my name's been in a lot of trade rumors," Perkins said, per Aldridge. "My name's been out there for getting amnesty. You've just got to know, I'm here in this situation, that's where my heart is until something happens. You've just got to keep committed, keep professional, just know that the guys got your back."
According to USA Today's Sam Amick, Jackson is aware that basketball is a business.
"My ultimate goal is always to win a championship...(but) whatever is the next move is the next move," Jackson said. "I'm just going to be here and be the best player I can be, day in and day out. When I go on the court I hope it shows. I want to compete at the highest level, always trying to get better. But if you have to move, it is what it is."
The Thunder also have to know that Jackson is their best trade chip. If they are going to add one final piece before the Feb. 19 deadline, why not trade Jackson to do so?
By sending Jackson away, they'll remove the distraction that his presence presents while alleviating an overcrowded backcourt rotation.
Earlier in the year, it seemed wise for Oklahoma City to use Jackson's financial motivation to their benefit.
Now, much like Bridget Fonda, Jackson and the club appear to be at the point of no return. A change of scenery would allow everyone to move forward with their goals.
Note: All stats current as of the end of play on Feb. 7 and are courtesy of NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
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