Houston Rockets' Playoff Hopes Hinge on Dwight Howard's Injured Knee

The Houston Rockets are built to win their first playoff series since 2009, but only if Dwight Howard’s knee can hold up. And with him sitting a prolonged period for the second time this season, that’s a growing concern.

However, according to ESPN.com’s Marc Stein, the Rockets feel he should be there for the playoffs:

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Yet sources told ESPN.com that the Rockets already acknowledge that a period of rest "likely measured in weeks" will be the minimum requirement before their defensive anchor is ready to the return to the lineup. But sources say Houston nonetheless remains confident that Howard will be able to come back "in plenty of time" to ramp up for the postseason, even if the absence stretches into the six-weeks range.

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Even if the Rockets do get Howard back, there’s the time frame of "up to six weeks" the Rockets could be without their superstar center. And they’ll need to find a way to survive without him. During the previous stint, Tarik Black filled in as the starter, but he was waived to make room for Josh Smith on Dec. 26.

BOB LEVEY/Associated Press

Now there’s a group of power forwards filling the spot but playing out of position: Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones, Smith and Joey Dorsey.

Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle quotes coach Kevin McHale as saying: "All those guys are going to have to step up for us. They all have to defend. They all have to rebound. They all have to play well. Dwight is just a strong, big-bodied, physical guy. Those guys are going to have to play bigger guys."

Motiejunas, at 7’0” and 255 pounds, is the only one of the group with a center’s size. And he is in harmony with his coach:

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With Dwight and without him are two different types of games we play. We have to contribute more when Dwight is out, and everyone knows that. So we can’t have games like the one we had in Detroit. We can’t relax. With Dwight, sometimes we do that, because he is behind us and he is going to clean everything up on the defensive end.

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The most intriguing thing about that statement is “two different types of games we play” because it’s very much true.

When Howard is on the court, 40.9 percent of Houston’s shots are within five feet of the rim, per the media version of NBA.com/Stats (subscription required). And the Rockets make 57.6 percent of them. When he sits, those numbers fall to 34.8 percent and 40.9 percent, respectively.

As a result of that, and because of the Morey Ball philosophy, which places a veritable prohibition on long twos (any shot between the inner semicircle and the outer one), the Rockets convert those would-be rim-rattlers into shots from deep. They attempt five more threes per 48 minutes but make only 33.8 percent of them, as opposed to the 37.2 percent when Howard is on the court.

Without Howard, the offense becomes more predictable and less viable. It works from the outside in rather than the inside out. Correspondingly, the Rockets score 1.9 fewer points per 100 possessions sans Howard.

The key to solving this may lie in Motiejunas, who, per Creech, has been working with Hakeem Olajuwon on his post moves. That’s evident from the vast improvement he’s shown as the season has progressed.

And his last two games have included the best (26 points) and third-best (21 points) scoring games of his career, according to Basketball-Reference.com. In the four games Howard has recently missed, Motiejunas is averaging 17.8 points with a 56.6 field-goal percentage and the added bonus of knocking down 1.5 threes per game at a 54.5 percent rate.

But Motiejunas’ big games have come against the Boston Celtics (Jan. 30) and the Detroit Pistons (Jan. 31). Doing that against weaker teams and doing it against premier defenses in the postseason are two entirely different things. Motiejunas is enough to get to the playoffs but not through them.

For the most part, the defense has also held up well in Howard’s absence, yielding just 96.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. Still, they felt Howard's absence in the 114 they gave up to Detroit, particularly because Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe combined for 30 of those.

The Rockets have enough to muddle through a stretch of regular season games without Howard and win. And they’re aided by the All-Star break, which means Howard will miss three or four fewer games than he normally would because of the week off.

But when the playoffs come, there won’t be the Bostons of the world to push around anymore, and opponents will be able to game-plan for Motiejunas. Howard’s health will be a must at that time.

The Rockets can legitimately advance with a healthy Howard, particularly if they make a move for a second shot creator. Currently, James Harden is bearing too much. In fact, the 36.9 percent of points Harden has generated, either through unassisted field goals, free throws or assists, is the highest of any player in the league for any team. 

That kind of dependence on one player has a way of biting teams in the postseason, as it did the Rockets last year. 

Their chances go up even more if they avoid the Golden State Warriors, who have swept the Rockets.

However, the Rockets are 8-3 against the rest of the field. Here’s how they've fared against the Western Conference playoff teams.

Team	Seed	Wins	Losses
Golden State	1	0	4
Memphis	2	2	1
Portland	4	1	0
LA Clippers	5	0	1
Dallas	6	2	0
San Antonio	7	1	1
Phoenix	8	2	0
TOTAL		8	7

Presently, they’re sitting on the No. 3 seed, which is great for avoiding Golden State as long as possible, if not entirely. Their road to the Finals would go through Dallas and Memphis, whom they are a combined 4-1 against.

They have enough to for a deep playoff push but only if they have what they have. (Please forgive the tautology.)

The rise of Motiejunas helps the Rockets to endure another loss of Howard for a time, but it’s not a permanent fix. The Rockets will need Howard’s rest to be sufficient. Without him in the playoffs, another first-round loss is likely, if not inevitable.