2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stars
The 2015 fantasy football outlook for the stars in the Tampa Bay offense has to be brighter, because the dimmer doesn’t go much lower. The Buccaneers are set to add to a promising lineup as the clock ticks down on their No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.
The pre-combine consensus has either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston hoisting a pewter-and-red jersey come April 30. Both quarterbacks should count themselves fortunate to inherit an arsenal packed with Charles Sims, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, among others.
Tampa Bay’s fall to the worst record in 2014 was riddled with misfortune that saw a rank amateur unintentionally handed the reins to the Buccaneers offense. Marcus Arroyo said as much in his departing statement, according to Andrew Astleford of Fox Sports Florida.
"I appreciated the opportunity to come in as a QB coach, and I accepted the additional work and responsibilities for game planning placed upon me unexpectedly after Jeff [Tedford’s] illness. Despite these difficult circumstances, I enjoyed my time here very much.
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The Buccaneers expected Tedford to run the offense until he was hospitalized for blockages in his heart. The recovery took longer than expected, and Tedford was excused from the team when he attempted to retake his post late in the season, according to Joe Bucs Fan.
With the opportunity to revive the fourth-worst offense of 2014 up for grabs, Greg Roman, Marc Trestman and others passed through town before Tampa Bay chose former Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.
Koetter explained why he’s looking forward to his new job in an article by Astleford of Fox Sports Florida.
"There [are] some really talented players to work with there, number one, the young guys that were drafted this past year. And then I've always had a lot of respect for Lovie [Smith] and the job he does as a head coach as a defensive coach, going against him over the years. ... So I think it's a really good fit for me personally and also a good fit for the type of players they already have in place.
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Koetter’s words reiterate what head coach Lovie Smith said at the end of a forgettable first year in Tampa Bay, according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.
"The football season didn't turn out exactly the way we wanted it to. There's no way around that. I hadn't envisioned a 2-14 season. What I did know is that when you come in, you know sometimes you have to first establish a foundation, which I feel like we've done. You do have to crawl before you walk…
Our future is bright.
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Smith’s tenure in Tampa is already clouded considering his predecessor Greg Schiano (11-21) received just a two-year shot before his dismissal.
If he and Koetter can’t get the offense rolling, it will be another frustrating season for fantasy owners of Buccaneers talent.
Honorable Mention
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Robert Herron, WR
Herron—a sixth-round pick out of Wyoming…Go Cowboys!—only flashed his potential on game day while spending most of the season on the practice squad. The Buccaneers are taking a wait-and-see approach heading into his second year, as fantasy owners should too.
Brandon Myers, TE
Myers totaled 10 fewer catches (69) in the last two years than the 79 he nabbed with the Oakland Raiders in 2012 before joining the New York Giants in 2013. But Tampa Bay still likes him given the restructured contract the two sides agreed to in December.
Don’t expect Myers to garner any fantasy relevance with Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the roster, however.
Mike James, RB
James failed to build on the foundation he laid in his rookie year when he replaced an injured Doug Martin. The sixth-rounder out of Miami put up 158 yards (28 carries) on the eventual-champion Seattle Seahawks and then suffered a broken ankle the following week.
He earned just 20 touches in 2014, and he probably won’t see a significant role unless Tampa Bay’s backfield is plagued with injuries.
Bobby Rainey, RB
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Rainey entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent of the Baltimore Ravens in 2012. Apparently the Ravens still lament the one that got away.
The problem is the 5’8” 212-pound Western Kentucky-product—Go Hilltoppers!—lost three fumbles in the first three games. That’s not an endearing stat for a coaching staff with plenty of options at running back.
Rainey is a restricted free agent whom the Buccaneers would be likely to extend at least another year given Doug Martin’s injury troubles.
But Rainey has little fantasy value beyond an insurance play in deeper leagues.
Mike Glennon, QB
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Glennon outperformed Josh McCown in 2014—83.3 passer rating to 70.5—before returning to the bench after McCown recovered from a thumb injury. The second-year, third-rounder out of North Carolina State started five games in McCown’s absence.
Glennon also came off the bench admirably in his rookie year, leaving Josh Freeman expendable.
The only conceivable reason Glennon didn’t get a stronger look in 2014 is because he was Greg Schiano and Mark Dominik’s guy. McCown is Lovie Smith and Jason Licht’s guy.
If Tampa Bay drafts a quarterback No. 1 and doesn’t cut McCown, expect the 6’6” Glennon to find himself on the trading block. His fantasy prospects depend exclusively on where he lands and what position he attains on the depth chart.
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Josh McCown, QB
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Marc Trestman found a willing student in McCown during his eight appearances in Chicago where the veteran back up posted a 109.0 passer rating behind 13 touchdowns to just one interception.
McCown parlayed his success by signing two-year, $10 million contract with Tampa Bay at the start of free agency. It’s a team-friendly deal that carries no dead-money penalty into the 2015 season should the Buccaneers decide to cut McCown outright, according to Over the Cap.
Tampa Bay does not have a considerable amount of money tied up at quarterback between McCown ($5.25 million) and Mike Glennon ($846,563) in 2015, ranking 24th, according to Spotrac.
If the Buccaneers select Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 pick, the NFL rookie-wage scale will keep that four-year contract in the $5 million average per year. Blake Bortles—the first quarterback taken in 2014 at No. 3—averages $5.16 million, according to Over the Cap.
The financials dictate Tampa Bay could cut McCown with zero cap consequences. But it wouldn’t be cost-prohibitive to keep him around to groom Glennon and/or a rookie.
McCown seems open to that possibility, according to Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com.
"I know that they’re going to make a great decision to help this team moving forward. Regardless of what that is, I want to help that guy help our team win football games.
If that’s a defensive tackle, whatever I can do to help him. ... If it’s a quarterback, so be it. My mindset doesn’t change. I said when I got here that I want to see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers be successful. That’s my goal and I want to see the quarterback position play efficient football and we didn’t get that done this year. That’s what my five months will be about is how can I improve that as a player for myself and then help our group do that as well.
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Fantasy owners should take a hands-off approach with McCown even if he remains Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback in 2015.
Louis Murphy, WR
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Tampa Bay’s WR3 doesn’t carry the fanfare of the two starters ahead of him, but he could be poised for a surprise 2015 with the right quarterback and offense in place.
The NFL journeyman and native of St. Petersburg didn’t flinch when the Buccaneers added him to the list of final cuts at the end of preseason. Tampa Bay invited Murphy back in Week 4 after cutting Chris Owusu, who later signed with the New York Jets.
Murphy repaid the Buccaneers by catching six passes for 99 yards in an upset win at Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay signed Murphy to a three-year extension in December. It’s the first time since 2010 the six-year veteran out of Florida will enter training camp with the same team. Murphy expressed optimism despite ending 2014 on injured reserve, according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.
"I believe in this team, I believe in coach Lovie [Smith], I believe in the organization. I believe in all the guys in that locker room, regardless of what the record says. I believe we're going to be contenders in the future and I want to be a part of it. I want to see it turn around.
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Fantasy owners should exercise caution adding Murphy in 2015, but he could have value in points-per-reception leagues if Dirk Koetter properly unleashes Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
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Seferian-Jenkins dropped into the second round of the 2014 NFL draft due to injury and character concerns. The 6’6”, 258-pound monster out of Washington kept his nose clean in 2014, but injuries kept him off the fantasy radar.
A back injury eventually ended a muted NFL debut—21 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns.
Seferian-Jenkins is nothing more than a dynasty consideration for 2015 at this point.
Doug Martin, RB
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Martin’s fantasy outlook plummeted from an obvious RB1 in 2013, to a risky RB2 in 2014 to a buyer-beware special in 2015. Tampa Bay has until May 3—the day after the 2015 draft concludes—to decide if it wants to pick up the fifth-year option on Martin’s rookie contract.
If the Buccaneers decline, 2015 becomes a contract year for the 2012 first-rounder out of Boise State—Go Broncos!
Martin’s decline from a stellar rookie season is attributable to a poor offense and 17 missed starts due to various injuries. It appears Martin’s 5’9” 215-pound frame isn’t up to a full-time NFL pounding.
Martin will compete with Charles Sims for Tampa Bay’s RB1 if Jason Licht and Lovie Smith opt not to use an early-round draft pick on another running back prospect.
Martin will be a dicey fantasy pick regardless of his team or depth-chart position in 2015.
Charles Sims, RB
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Lovie Smith and general manager Jason Licht targeted Sims in the third round to be their Matt Forte, according to Ross Jones of Fox Sports.com.
At 6’1”, 215 pounds, the third-rounder out of West Virginia certainly looks the part. He averaged 50.1 catches per season during his college career at Houston and West Virginia combined, and has the physical stature to stand up to a RB1 workload, unlike Doug Martin.
Sims missed the first half of the season following ankle surgery. The rookie racked up 375 yards combined despite zero starts and double-digit touches in just four games.
If Sims can stay healthy in 2015, he’ll probably get a fair shot at Tampa Bay’s RB1, considering he’s already caught Smith’s eye.
Vincent Jackson, WR
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Jackson joined teammate Doug Martin as the focus of cascading trade rumors while the 2014 deadline approached. Nothing materialized while the nine-year veteran out of Northern Colorado—Go Bears!—powered through his sixth-career 1,000-yard season.
Perhaps the 6’5”, 241-pounder generated so much interest because his seventh-ranked contract among wide receivers is so cap friendly. Tampa Bay front-loaded the majority of Jackson’s guaranteed money, leaving little risk if it felt the need to trade or cut him for salary-cap reasons.
Moving Jackson would probably go against the wishes of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Koetter no doubt appreciates the value of a pair of elite wide receivers from his days with Julio Jones and Roddy White in Atlanta.
He indicated such appreciation when discussing why he took over a floundering offense in the first place, according to Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report.
"You mentioned Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and also Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Charles Sims, of course Doug Martin – there’s enough [to work with]. I realize that we need to improve our offensive line and have some things that we need to. We’re not a finished product yet. And if there’s some beauty to being 2-14 in that you do get the first pick on the clock a little bit to be able to add some good players to our football team.
So yes, I thought it would play out this way.
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Count on Jackson staying put in Tampa Bay and improving on his two-touchdown performance in 2014. He’s a mid-round consideration with upside heading into the 2015 fantasy draft.
Mike Evans, WR
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Tampa Bay made Evans the second wide receiver taken in the draft—the seventh player overall. The rookie out of Texas A&M emerged as a flag-bearer for the spectacular wide receiver class of 2014.
Evans exploded midseason after a slow start, tallying 68 catches for 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns by the end of the year. The 6’5”, 230-pounder towered over opposing defenders in stature and performance despite the fact he may have been drafted for a system that never materialized, according to the Tampa Bay Times' Rick Stroud.
"Unfortunately for the Bucs, [Jeff Tedford] was the guy who spent 2013 in Smith's basement at his home near Chicago, selling an offense that was up-tempo and made good use of speed and space. One has to assume he had a big impact on what became an exclusively offensive draft.
All that went out the window when Tedford failed to return from the heart procedure.
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Since Evans finished 11th among receivers in fantasy scoring—according to ESPN.com—just imagine what he could do in an offense with a plan.
Evans will be a top-20 pick regardless of who lines up under center for the Buccaneers in 2015.
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