Patriots vs. Seahawks: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

The title to this article is a question, which would imply a level of uncertainty that needs an answer.  Of course, anyone who has tuned into any form of media over the past 10 days knows what the experts are saying about the New England Patriots, and it hasn't been flattering.

Indeed, with Deflategate sabotaging the Super Bowl XLIX storylines, the likes of Bill Nye have subverted the actual football expertise that typically fills the headlines.  Consequently, with a league investigation looming as a dark cloud over the game, it feels as though the Patriots are playing against more than just the Seattle Seahawks.

Much like the team itself, though, this article will be a deflation-free zone.  In reality, it's silly that the controversy continues to receive this much national coverage, given that the incident will have no effect on the Super Bowl's outcome.  Sunday's contest will occur in a totally neutral setting; even if you see the Patriots as a sleazy organization, a victory would validate New England as 2014's best team.

Fortunately, more of the analysis has shifted to an on-field focus as game day approaches.  Analyzing some of the top mainstream voices on the game, let's reveal how they currently view the Pats in the context of the Big Game.

Matt Bowen: Chancellor Can Contain Gronk

It's no secret that Rob Gronkowski has been the straw that stirs the drink for New England's offense.  Gronk is an irrepressible matchup nightmare against any player in the league, but as Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen opines, thumping Seattle safety Kam Chancellor could be the player best equipped to contain the All-Pro tight end, particularly at the line of scrimmage:

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With Chancellor, I’m looking for the safety to walk down over Gronkowski in both the Seahawks’ base and nickel fronts to get hands on the tight end at the release. Given his size (6’3”, 232 lbs) and physical style of play, Chancellor has the ability to attack Gronkowski's chest plate, slide his feet and stay square. Shut down the release, win at the point of attack and tell Brady to go somewhere else with the ball.

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Teams that have pressed Gronk at the line, such as the San Diego Chargers, have had success limiting his overall impact.  He will always make his share of plays—even against the Chargers, he had a 14-yard touchdown and a 35-yard catch-and-run—but defenses can win by taking him away in the most critical situations.

Chancellor will not be alone, of course, as the 'Hawks will play bracket coverage like every other team, likely with linebacker K.J. Wright.  New England might try splitting Gronk out wide more often than usual, which would force Seattle to cover him with Richard Sherman or Byron Maxwell.  Sherman (6'3") and Maxwell (6'1") both have the size and length to bother Gronk, but the New England tight end outweighs both foes by roughly 60 to 70 pounds.

We'll have more on this matchup in our Patriots Super Bowl preview, but the game's outcome may boil down to Gronk's efficacy in the red zone and on third down.  Given Seattle's estimable strength on the perimeter, Gronkowski is even more crucial than usual to New England's offensive sustainability.

Vincent Verhei: No "Magic Bullet" to Beat Pats

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The Pats have always been one of the league's most amorphous squads, infusing their roster with versatile skill sets and consequently becoming one of the toughest teams to game-plan for.  In examining New England's worst games this season, Football Outsiders' Vincent Verhei suggests that no single formula has emerged this season as a consistently successful deterrent against the Patriots:

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Anyway you look at it, though, the causes of New England's bad games are less predictable than those of Seattle. With the Seahawks, it came down to a very simple formula: if their pass defense played well (which it usually did, obviously), they won; on the rare occasions that the pass defense struggled, they lost. With the Patriots, though, every bad game seemed to have a different fatal flaw. This may be a reflection of New England's well-rounded, versatile team. When one aspect of the team fails, the Patriots are usually strong enough otherwise to overcome that failure

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Knowing one's own weaknesses is indispensable toward constructing a winning game plan.  So from a Patriots perspective, the Week 4 debacle against the Kansas City Chiefs serves as the likeliest blueprint for the Seahawks to replicate. 

Kansas City especially serves as a nice offensive doppelganger for Seattle, as the Seahawks also possess an exemplary running game to prop up underwhelming wide receiver talent.  The Chiefs also overwhelmed New England defensively by winning at the line of scrimmage without blitzing, a formula Seattle is capable of replicating.

That obviously isn't a perfect comparison, as the Patriots are a different team from the one that imploded that September night.  Nevertheless, when thinking about how Seattle might game-plan based on the Patriots' earlier 2014 games, the Chiefs contest serves as a nice starting point.

Bill Williamson: Pats Have 2nd Best "Farm System"

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Obviously, the Patriots and their fans have channeled their focus toward Sunday's championship tilt.  However, as ESPN's Bill Williamson "under-25" rankings reveal, the Patriots are well-positioned to compete for championships, even as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick enter their twilight years:

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Patriots Ranked #2 Team with Talent Under-25 http://t.co/kt5J3VzsIn pic.twitter.com/LPzgXlDhNU

— Rich Hill (@PP_Rich_Hill) January 26, 2015"

New England possesses a core four of Rob Gronkowski, Dont'a Hightower, Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins who all are all either 24 or 25 years old, though only Gronk is on his second contract.  Even though Brady's cap hit falls short of the likes of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, potentially pricey extensions for Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty could create a tight budget as Jones, Collins and Hightower reach the end of their rookie contracts.

That latter trio represents an extraordinary bargain at this point, as their combined 2015 cap hit is roughly $6 million, per Spotrac.com.  For reference, 23 defensive linemen and 20 linebackers had an individual cap hit exceeding that combined total.  All three are also under team control through 2016; Jones and Hightower were first-round picks, which means that the Pats hold an affordable fifth-year option on both. 

Thus, the Patriots could have as much cost-controlled talent as any team in the league.  Obviously, the primary factors in their success will be the longevity of Brady and Belichick, but for the next two seasons, the old standbys will have plenty of help.

Bill Barnwell: Chargers Are Blueprint for a Pats Win

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We already alluded to this earlier, but beating the Seahawks is actually a much neater formula than devising a game plan to take down the Patriots.  Winning against Seattle remains one of the league's toughest tasks, of course, but as Grantland's Bill Barnwell notes, the San Diego Chargers could provide a nice blueprint for a Pats Super Bowl victory:

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This is the exact sort of game Seattle fans should worry about, one in which the Seahawks are up against an incredibly accurate quarterback who is capable of finding the small crevices and holes in their defense with safe, concise passes. It’s the game plan New England ran against Seattle the last time they played, when Tom Brady threw 58 passes.

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The Chargers dominated time of possession in that game as well, holding the ball for an astounding 42 minutes, 15 seconds because of an uber-efficient 10-for-17 conversion rate on third down.  Much of that stemmed from Seattle's curious inability to run the ball—it's a safe bet that Marshawn Lynch will get more than six carries this Sunday—but Philip Rivers' pinpoint accuracy and exemplary pocket presence that day serve as a reasonable standard for Tom Brady to match.

The tougher part might be finding a defensive match.  The teams that had the most success stifling the Seattle offense, like the St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers (in the regular-season meeting), were anchored by strong front sevens.  The Green Bay Packers last week benefited from an uncharacteristic spate of Seattle turnovers, but needless to say, that's probably not a trend to bank upon.

The Patriots have the tools to move the ball on Seattle's defense, especially if the pass protection holds up.  However, the bigger question for New England will be how it stops the most flummoxing matchup on the Seahawks offense.

Andy Benoit: Template for the Pats to Contain Wilson

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No quarterback in the league plays with the controlled scrambling ability of Russell Wilson, as his ability to extend plays and crack initially sound defensive execution can wreck games.  As the MMQB's Andy Benoit opines in a must-read film review, the Patriots' personnel could play man-free lurk-spy concepts to contain Wilson's legs:

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Man-free lurk is what it sounds like: man-to-man across the board, a free safety in centerfield and a lurker underneath. It’s a great coverage against a mobile QB because the lurker helps eliminate the shallow crossing patterns (which Seattle uses often) and also acts as a spy on the quarterback...The Patriots can take this approach because inside linebacker Jamie Collins is more athletic than most strong safeties, and he’s especially deft in pursuit on the outside.

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Benoit highlights Collins as the likeliest player to spy Wilson on most downs, as his uncommon athleticism would present a challenge for the quarterback when he breaks the pocket.  But no linebacker, not even Collins, is quick or agile enough to consistently stay step-for-step with Wilson in space.

Thus, look for the Pats to give Wilson a variety of rush looks and rely on their secondary to plaster Seattle's wide receivers.  Benoit mentions other spy concepts that entail zone schemes and blitz looks.  Rushing Wilson is not nearly as necessary as ensuring that he does not wriggle out of pressure to set his feet for a clean throw after the secondary has gotten scrambled.

Wilson has been a relatively inefficient runner in the postseason, as he has scrambled 14 times for just 43 yards.  Carolina and Green Bay did an excellent job of maintaining gap discipline to contain him, and though he can still make plays with his arm, Seattle is unlikely to consistently crack New England's defense without the full diversity of its ground-game arsenal.