9 Biggest Changes the San Francisco 49ers Must Still Make This Offseason
We’re now just over a week into the Jim Tomsula era, and the San Francisco 49ers are just beginning to take shape. Now that the team has a head coach in place, it can actually start shaping the 2015 roster.
Owner Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke are adamant that this is a “reload,” as opposed to a full rebuild. That’s a little hard to believe at first blush, considering that every assistant coach other than Tomsula and running backs coach Tom Rathman were fired, and that the team will have to replace not only ex-head coach Jim Harbaugh but also both the offensive and defensive coordinators.
The 2015 49ers will be fundamentally different than the previous four years’ editions, with an entirely different philosophy in place and almost all traces of the Harbaugh era shuffled out the door.
That being said, the coaching staff doesn’t line up on game day. Tomsula won’t be taking snaps from under center or shadowing the top receiver on the other team. The fate of the 2015 49ers will depend on how the new administration plugs the holes the 49ers have on the field. If the 49ers want to contend in 2015, they’re going to have to deliver solid answers to all the questions that still loom in this offseason.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the larger changes the 49ers still have to make over the rest of this offseason. There are still coaches to be hired, free agents to re-sign and the draft to navigate. If the 49ers want to be the NFC Championship team they were from 2011 through 2013, rather than the eight-win club that showed up in 2014, they’re going to need to have solid answers to each of these holes.
We’re going to look at the front office first, then the offense and finally the defense, rather than ranking them in order of need. This is because, in several cases, the need will depend on the direction the coaching staff leans in.
Will the new offensive coordinator want run-mauling offensive linemen or explosive receivers? Will the new defensive coordinator run a 3-4 defense or a 4-3? Until these very basic questions are answered, it’s hard to tell precisely which needs are most important. Consider this, then, to be a thorough list of the needs, rather than a priority list.
Here are the holes to fill, the free agents to make decisions on and the roster moves to ponder before the 2015 season gets underway.
Hole: Offensive and Defensive Coordinator
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I said that this list isn’t in order of priority, but it would be hard to argue that establishing the 49ers’ offensive and defensive philosophies isn’t the most important thing they can do this offseason.
Considering their new head coach has no coordinator experience and only one game of NFL head coaching experience, hiring veteran coordinators who can run the offense and defense will be incredibly crucial to the team’s success.
It looks almost certain that former Oakland Raiders defensive coordinator Jason Tarver will replace Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. The San Francisco Chronicle's Eric Branch reports that Tarver interviewed with Tomsula on Friday, with the only other reports mentioning Eric Mangini as a candidate, according to Matt Barrows.
Tarver worked with Tomsula when he was the 49ers’ outside linebackers coach from 2005 through 2010 and is one of Tomsula’s few league-wide connections.
The Raiders haven’t exactly been stellar on defense over the past three years with Tarver in charge, but he worked well with young players such as Khalil Mack and Sio Moore. Taking on a more talented 49ers defense, you’d expect his overall numbers to improve.
It would imply a move to a 4-3 alignment, as Tarver runs a hybrid system based in a 4-3 front. That would allow Chris Borland to stay in the starting lineup with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, while moving Aaron Lynch and Aldon Smith to pass-rushing end positions. The 49ers have some parts for this sort of front, so it’s actually a positive, intriguing move.
The offensive coordinator position is still, as of this writing, up in the air. The most positive spin might be that the team was waiting for the Indianapolis Colts to lose so they could grab Colts assistant Rob Chudzinski. It’s possible Tomsula hinted at this in his introductory press conference:
"If there's somebody that's doing something really interesting (and) you know that's it, but it's tampering, so you don't want to do that. So you have to wait, and that's just right. But then if there's somebody else you can get right now, what do you do there? Do you hedge your bet?
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Other candidates include Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (as reported by ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, via ESPN.com), former Washington head coach Mike Shanahan (as reported by CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco) or former Chicago head coach Marc Trestman (as reported by CBSSports.com's Chris Cwik). The hire is a crucial one to make soon, so possible fits can be scouted in both free agency and the draft.
Hole: Backup Quarterback
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The only quarterback on the 49ers’ roster for 2015 is Colin Kaepernick. Both Blaine Gabbert and Josh Johnson are unrestricted free agents, and, to be honest, neither are particularly inspiring. If Kaepernick goes down at some point in the 2015 season, it doesn’t feel like the 49ers could survive trotting out Blaine Gabbert.
Complicating the matter somewhat is the fact that Kaepernick’s contract is such that he could, in theory, be cut after 2015. This seemed laughable when Kaepernick signed his new deal last offseason, but a poor 2015, combined with a scheme change and a new coordinator, at least puts the move on the table for future consideration.
The 49ers' best strategy here is a two-pronged attack. First of all, they should take a developmental quarterback prospect on the final day of the draft. A player such as Cody Fajardo out of Nevada or Sean Mannion from Oregon State could learn on the bench for a few years, developing into an NFL-caliber quarterback under the watchful eye of a talented coordinator.
Secondly, they should sign a veteran quarterback to a two-year deal to be the immediate backup to Kaepernick. This would ideally be a talented player who could step in and win a few games if Kaepernick goes down but not a talented enough player to demand a massive contract or cause a preseason quarterback controversy.
Players who fit that general category include Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker and Mark Sanchez. I don’t think anyone would be clamoring for them to step in and replace Kaepernick immediately, but all have shown the ability to win games on a short-term basis at least.
In the best-case scenario, Kaepernick rebounds and remains the long-term starter, with the late-round rookie developing into his long-term backup. In the worst-case scenario, Kaepernick is released, and 2016 sees a quarterback competition between the veteran, the late-round rookie and a first-round pick in next year’s draft.
Free Agent: Frank Gore
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The 49ers have to make a decision on Frank Gore, who will be a free agent this offseason. Gore has been the 49ers workhorse back through thick and thin since 2006. Last year, however, saw Gore’s fewest carries per game since his rookie season, when he lined up behind Kevan Barlow on the depth chart.
He also averaged less than three yards per carry in six games. All that being said, though, Gore still topped 1,000 yards for the eighth time, and showed that while he may be on his last tank of gas, there’s still some gas left in the tank.
Gore will be 32 years old next May, and there’s not a great track record for backs that old. The best-case scenario for Gore is a time-share scenario behind Carlos Hyde, sort of how Buffalo splits carries between the aging Fred Jackson and the younger C.J. Spiller. Hyde is the future at the position; the only question is whether or not Gore serves as part of the backfield committee for another year or not.
One thing’s for certain—there’s no way the 49ers could afford to bring him back for the nearly $6.5 million cap hit he represented in 2014, according to Spotrac.
For his return to make sense for the 49ers, he’d have to take a massive pay cut, back to the sort of money he was making as a rookie, less than $3 million a year. If he agreed to do that, the 49ers could probably find use for the crafty veteran on a reduced workload. Otherwise, a late-round pick could be used to shore up the position behind Hyde and Kendall Hunter.
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Hole: Wide Receiving Corps
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Michael Crabtree is a free agent, and considering the fact that he hasn’t really had a great season since 2012, the 49ers will probably be letting him walk. Brandon Lloyd, as well, will probably hit the proverbial trail as well.
That actually leaves the 49ers with an interesting, if question-mark-pocked, receiving corps.
Anquan Boldin has been San Francisco’s leading receiver for two seasons, but he’ll be 35 next October. He likely has at least one more year left in him, but a long-term replacement is necessary.
Stevie Johnson would logically move into the starting lineup if Crabtree leaves, as he has years of experience as a starter in Buffalo.
Johnson suffered through 2014 with a knee injury and never quite looked right in the second half of the year, but he looked mighty sharp early on. His cap number for 2015 is over $6 million, according to Spotrac, however, and that number might be too large for the 49ers to swallow. He’s a potential target for a re-negotiation or extension.
Behind them, the 49ers have two interesting young players without much in the way of experience in Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton. That wouldn’t be the worst receiving corps in the NFL, though there’s not a No. 1 receiver there.
That leads us to the draft, where the 49ers could end up taking multiple players, depending on how the new offensive coordinator likes his receivers. A first-rounder such as West Virginia’s Kevin White or Louisville’s DeVante Parker seems more than likely. It would give a talent boost to the position and give Kaepernick a new threat to work with.
Cut or Keep: Vernon Davis
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Do the 49ers release Vernon Davis from his contract? He’s slated to count more than $7 million against the cap in 2015, according to Spotrac, and the 49ers could save nearly $5 million by giving him his walking papers.
Davis was a disaster this past season. He caught only 26 passes all year long and had five or six drops, per Sporting Charts, depending on who’s charting. He was blanked against Seattle in Week 15 entirely. He also stopped being the 49ers’ top deep threat, catching only one pass more than 20 yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.
Even worse, his blocking deteriorated as well. While Davis has been one of the top run-blocking tight ends in football over his career, that dropped off a cliff this season. Were injuries to blame, or at age 30, is he simply done?
If his cap hit was less than it actually is, it would probably be worth keeping him around for one more year. He was a Pro Bowler just last season and had at least 40 receptions and 500 yards a season from 2009 through 2013. He’s not that far removed from being a top-10 tight end. However, with the 49ers cash-strapped as it is, I’m not sure they can afford to see if this year really was a fluke for Davis.
That brings up the question as to who would start at the tight end position. Vance McDonald and Derek Carrier both showed some promise in limited snaps, but neither is exactly a great threat in the passing game so far. The 49ers could re-sign free agent Garrett Celek to compete as well or add someone such as Ohio State’s Jeff Heuerman in the middle of the draft.
Free Agent: Mike Iupati
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The hardest free-agent decision the 49ers have to make this offseason is what to do about Mike Iupati.
If the only job of an offensive lineman was to run block, Iupati would be one of the top three guards in the game. Iupati absolutely dominates at the line of scrimmage, and, combined with Joe Staley and Bruce Miller, he regularly carves out huge lanes for running backs on the left side of the line.
The 49ers averaged 5.13 yards per carry running to the left in 2014, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. Why would the new offensive coordinator want to break that up?
If the only job of an offensive lineman was to pass block, Iupati would be borderline un-startable. According to Pro Football Focus, Iupati allowed seven sacks, two quarterback hits and 22 hurries in 2014. That’s the most pressure of any lineman, on a team that allowed Colin Kaepernick to be sacked 52 times. That’s really, really not good.
Sadly, offensive guards need to do both of those things, making the decision hard. Iupati might be the best one-dimensional guard in football, but what is that worth?
That depends, in large part, on how the 49ers fill their offensive coordinator position. Will they want to run a power-running game? If so, Iupati should be kept. Will they want to keep Kaepernick in the pocket and throw the ball deep? If so, Iupati should be let go.
It also, of course, will depend on how much money Iupati and his agent are looking for. If they’re looking to be paid like one of the best guards in football—Jahri Evans money, in other words, or $8 million a season—the 49ers would be hard-pressed to justify that. If, on the other hand, the 49ers can make a deal around $5 million a season, then he’s still worth the investment.
If Iupati leaves, his position will be filled by either Brandon Thomas or the loser of the Daniel Kilgore/Marcus Martin battle at center.
Retire or Return: Justin Smith
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Justin Smith will be 36 years old in September. That’s more or less ancient for a defensive lineman; no one that old has started even half of their team’s games since 2010. With the shakeup in the coaching staff, it’d be no surprise if the Cowboy rode off into the sunset.
Hold on with the career retrospectives for just a moment, however. While there have been mixed reports indicating that Smith might retire, the 49ers aren’t ready to concede that point just yet. After all, they just promoted his position coach to the head job, and that just might be enough to entice Smith back for one last season.
After all, it’s not like Smith was exactly on his last legs this past season. Smith’s tackle numbers were down to 28, and he only recorded five sacks, but his impact on the game goes beyond what those numbers show.
With so many injuries and suspensions throughout the front seven, Smith served as the glue that held everything together. With new players cycling in and out of the lineup, Smith was a rock at defensive end, providing a force and continuity that was key to the 49ers’ success last season.
With Ray McDonald off the team, Smith’s return is even more important. Tank Carradine might finally be called upon to fill one of the two 5-technique positions, but he can’t fill them both. If Smith retires, the 49ers will have lost both of their starting defensive ends from a year ago.
Cut or Keep: Ahmad Brooks
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If the 49ers do decide to shift to a 4-3 defense this offseason, that leaves Ahmad Brooks as sort of a man without a position.
Brooks played in Cincinnati in a 4-3 defense in 2006 and 2007, but he was mostly a reserve middle linebacker. That’s not going to be possible in San Francisco, where they’re already overflowing with middle linebackers, from future Hall of Famers such as Patrick Willis to All-Pros such as NaVorro Bowman to rookie studs such as Chris Borland. He also doesn’t quite have the perfect frame to bulk up and play defensive end.
Even if he did, he may have been replaced by this year’s fifth-round rookie, Aaron Lynch. Lynch looked very good in a rotational role during Aldon Smith’s suspension and has played defensive end before at the college level.
Add into the fact that Brooks stands to have a $9.6 million cap hit in 2015, according to Over The Cap, and the fact that he was benched multiple times this last season, and it would seem like a no-brainer to move on from Brooks, right?
Well, remember that Brooks was a Pro Bowler in 2013, not too long ago. Also remember that this will be a new defensive staff coming in to deal with Brooks; it may have a better working relationship than Brooks had with Vic Fangio toward the end. Perhaps the staff may think it can find a way to maximize Brooks’ potential in the 49ers defense. That remains to be seen, based on who is brought in to run the defense.
Hole: Cornerback Depth
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The 49ers will get Tramaine Brock back from injury in 2015, which is a plus. After him, however, things get murky.
The cornerback who had the most snaps for the 49ers in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus, was Perrish Cox. He is a free agent.
The cornerback who had the second-most snaps for the 49ers in 2014 was Chris Culliver. He is a free agent.
Chris Cook, who served as a depth cornerback, is also a free agent entering 2015.
The 49ers need to re-sign a couple of them, or they’re not going to have enough warm bodies for next season. My gut, and a look at the 49ers’s salary situation, says that they may not be able to re-sign both Culliver and Cox, in which case they should focus on locking down Culliver, if possible. Cox had a great start to 2014, but he started to fade as the season went along.
Even if they re-sign two of the three, however, they’d probably need to add someone in the draft. If they can re-sign Culliver, that pushes the need down to the middle rounds, where someone such as Quandre Diggs of Texas could be a fit.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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