What Tom Thibodeau Must Do to Save Chicago Bulls' Season
Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has spent the past two (mostly) Derrick Rose-less seasons cementing his place among the NBA's great miracle workers.
With Rose back and his supporting cast as strong as it's ever been, the Bulls don't need a miracle. But they need some type of spark to keep this campaign from careening off the tracks.
It's too early to panic yet late enough to recognize that some things need to change. The Bulls are as cool as they've been all season—six losses in eight games, three of the double-digit variety—while several of their Eastern Conference contenders are starting to catch fire.
The Atlanta Hawks have ridden a 13-game winning streak to the top of the conference standings and haven't suffered a defeat since Dec. 26. The Washington Wizards are healthy and starting to build their own mountain of victories. The Cleveland Cavaliers have finally started showing signs of life, including Monday's 108-94 dismantling of Chicago.
And the return of All-Star swingman DeMar DeRozan is sure to help the Toronto Raptors, despite what their recent efforts suggest.
The Bulls have time to turn things around, but not if they keep up at this rate. Things need to improve quickly, especially with the competition set to rise on Chicago's upcoming schedule.
Thibs might need to get creative to find a solution, and these five areas deserve the bulk of his attention.
Rebuild the Rotation
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This might the be the riskiest hand in an NBA coach's deck, but it's also arguably the most powerful. If Thibodeau doesn't like what he has seen out of his current rotation, it's time to consider making some fairly significant tweaks.
"We have to find some continuity," Thibodeau said, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. "Maybe we look at different people. I'm going to think about it. Study the film and try to come up with some answers."
A quick dive into the numbers shows there are several options for the coach to consider.
He has to find a way to bring Jimmy Butler's minutes down. The fourth-year swingman has seen his statistics take a precipitous fall of late—17.0 points on 40.3 percent shooting in January, down from 21.7 and 48.1 respectively—and it isn't hard to figure out why. The 25-year-old leads the league in total minutes (1,590) and distance traveled (112.8 miles) despite having missed three games already.
Sparkplug scorer Aaron Brooks needs more playing time. This is an offensive machine when he's on the court (111.2 points per 100 possessions) and a pedestrian attack when he isn't (102.0). Kirk Hinrich, who turned 34 at the beginning of the month, no longer gives this team enough defensively to justify keeping him in front of an offensive injection like Brooks.
Rose is playing a little more than he should. His minutes have increased while his field-goal percentage has fallen each month of the season. It would be one thing if the Bulls needed Rose like they used to, but they've played better in Brooks' minutes (plus-7.6) than Rose's (1.5).
Taj Gibson is another reserve making a compelling case for more action. With the size and athleticism to fill either frontcourt spot, he is too talented to stay tethered to his 28.6 minutes-a-night leash. The fact that Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol have struggled to share the floor (plus-1.3 net rating together) only increases the volume of Gibson's argument for a larger role.
Put a Chip Back on This Team's Shoulder
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Between Rose's return and this roster's offseason overhaul, the Bulls were expected to look different. But who could have imagined they would be this hard to recognize?
And not in a good way.
"Injuries have contributed to the Bulls' inconsistent play this season, but no matter how banged up they have been before, they always guarded people," wrote Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune. "They always hustled. They always rotated. They always tried. Of late, pffft. Yawn. Zzzzz."
The Bulls used to fight even when the odds said they might as well surrender. Now, they are struggling to show any signs of resistance despite looking every bit like a heavyweight contender on paper.
Cleveland bullied Chicago on Monday. The Cavs grabbed 14 more rebounds, including 20 on the offensive end alone. Cleveland was plus-16 on points in the paint and plus-six on fast-break buckets (despite committing four more turnovers).
"All the hustle areas that the Bulls used to win regularly are going the other way, signs of a team that is lacking urgency at both ends," wrote K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
The Bulls don't seem like themselves. Their fuel tanks, which ran on seemingly endless supplies just last season, now look depleted. They are slow to loose balls, soft on the glass (22nd in defensive rebounding percentage) and committing previously unseen breakdowns on both ends of the floor.
"They appear to have their most talented roster, from top to bottom, of the Tom Thibodeau era," wrote Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "Yet they don't look anything like a Tom Thibodeau team."
Thibodeau has to figure out how to bring this group together. The Bulls have to find their old underdog mentality, even if so many still see them among the championship favorites.
Get Back to Defensive Roots
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If there's a particularly shocking element of Chicago's recent slide, it's the overly generous nature of this defense.
Nine of the Bulls' last 11 opponents have cleared the century mark, including each of the last five. Only 13 of Chicago's first 13 opponents reached 100 points, and two of those teams needed an extra session to get there.
Since Thibodeau took over in 2010-11, the Bulls have never finished lower than fifth in defensive efficiency. They currently sit 12th in the category and have been trapped in a downward spiral of late. Chicago has a 106.3 defensive rating in January, sixth-worst in the league.
The Bulls are defending like five individuals, not five players on a string. That has led to blown assignments, missed rotations and a ton of clean looks for the opposition.
"We're quiet when we're out there, and it's leading to them getting easy baskets," Rose said, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell. "We got to give a better effort. It seems like we're not even competing, and it's f---ing irritating."
Chicago has really been hurt by the absence of Noah. He has been sidelined with an ankle issue recently and also missed time due to lingering problems from offseason knee surgery. Without that interior presence, Chicago has been vulnerable at the basket and exploited in the pick-and-roll.
It's tough to mask Noah's absence, but the Bulls have to do a better job of meeting teams at the point of attack. These wing players must build a stronger wall around the perimeter, because once a dribble drive slips past it, this team has to rely on rotations that have been late or missed altogether.
Thibodeau needs to clean up the communication and have his players do more to help each other. Dialing back some of the aggressiveness in his scheme is something else to consider, as this team doesn't have the athleticism or rim protection some of his past ones did.
Use Passing and Pace to Create Better Shots
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The Bulls have the NBA's eighth most efficient offense overall, but even that side of the ball has started becoming a problem area.
Chicago has only hit triple digits twice over its past eight games. Three of this team's five worst shooting performances have come since the calendar changed, per ESPN Stats & Information.
Both Rose and Butler's field-goal conversion rates have nosedived in the new year. Rookie Nikola Mirotic seems to have lost whatever he'd found earlier this season (7.4 points on .318/.222/.756 shooting his last nine games). Chicago's floor spacing has taken a hit with Mike Dunleavy (foot) on the shelf.
All of that makes Thibodeau's job more difficult, but the Bulls are making themselves easier to stop than they should be. There isn't enough movement—of the players or the ball—to put defenses on their heels.
Instead, Chicago has been too content to ease into its offense, which has become overreliant on isolation plays. The Bulls have the athletes and finishers to pick up the pace. Playing with more speed and a better sense of urgency could bring benefits on both ends of the floor.
"If the Bulls were to play faster with more energy, pushing the ball into transition as players generally prefer, that also can lead to more spirited defense," wrote Bulls.com's Sam Smith. "It’s difficult to keep walking the ball up into set isolation plays, as the Bulls often do now, and then create the emotion and frenzy for great defense."
In January, the Bulls rank 10th in scoring (101.1 points) but only 19th in assists (21.2) and 25th in field-goal percentage (42.5). The scoring reflects this roster's talent. The other numbers highlight the fact this talent isn't being maximized.
Thibs needs to get Butler, Rose and Brooks out in the open floor. The Bulls need to make multiple passes to move the defense before feeding Gasol or Gibson underneath. There are so many willing setup men on this team that no one should stand in the same spot for long.
Ditch the Injury Bug
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Obviously, this is the area in which Thibodeau has the least amount of control. But it's impossible to discuss what has gone wrong with the Bulls without tying it back to their missing pieces. That doesn't excuse some of these lackluster performances, but it does explain some of the problems Chicago has encountered.
"The first, best thing Chicago needs is to get back Joakim Noah and Mike Dunleavy, the two starters missing these days," wrote NBA.com's Steve Aschburner. "Noah, the 2014 Defensive Player of the Year, in particular is missed for his pick-and-roll presence, his high-post facilitating of proper ball movement...and his contagious energy."
Just think about what the Bulls currently lack: defensive discipline, pinpoint passing, floor spacing, enthusiasm. Aren't those all things Noah and Dunleavy provide?
Without Noah, the Bulls don't have a vocal leader. Rose, Butler and Gasol are the lead-by-example types. No one else has a big enough spotlight to command real authority. Noah's passion—for his teammates and the game—rubs off on those around him. But he needs to be on the floor for it to have a real effect.
Defensively, Noah brings more size than Gibson and better mobility than Gasol. Offensively, Noah is the type of selfless, duct-tape contributor this group needs to bring the moving pieces together.
And don't undersell the importance of Dunleavy. His three-point cannon frees up driving lanes for Rose and Butler or low-post real estate for Gasol and Gibson. Dunleavy's also a good team defender, someone who makes up for a lack of athleticism with intelligence and instincts.
Granted, the Bulls can't afford to wait on their injured players. The East would bury them if they tried. But there is no reason to wait with so many different avenues to improvement in front of them.
One torrid run could launch Chicago back up the conference standings. The talent is in place to make such a push—it just needs to be utilized a little differently than it has been.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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