Upcoming Stretch Will Likely Decide Phoenix Suns' Playoff Fate
Postseason uncertainty has reached its climax for the Phoenix Suns. One way or the other, for better or worse, their playoff fate will be decided over the next 10 games.
Probably.
Clinging to eighth place in the Western Conference, the Suns find themselves once again trying to fend off the lottery. The surprising 48-win team from last season finished one game behind the Dallas Mavericks for that final postseason slot, and a similar ending was—and still is—supposed to await them now.
The Suns are operating on borrowed time in many ways. Once Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned, the Oklahoma City Thunder's surge became inevitable. Climbing any higher up the Western Conference ladder would be difficult, nigh impossible, but eighth place became theirs to lose.
"The Phoenix Suns hold eighth place for now, but their stay will be temporary, like those well-dressed seat-fillers at the Oscars," Bleacher Report's Howard Beck wrote ahead of the new year. "The stars of the Oklahoma City Thunder will be supplanting them soon enough."
Three games still separate the Suns from the Thunder (and New Orleans Pelicans), but prevailing thought hasn't changed. Though the Thunder have been playing .500 basketball over their last 15 contests, a miniature two-game winning streak that's included a 127-115 dismantling of the league-lording Golden State Warriors has put the NBA on notice.
Especially the Suns.
This is why these next 10 games will play a pivotal part in empowering or eviscerating their postseason hopes.
Here's a look at the road ahead:
| 1/19 | vs. Lakers |
| 1/21 | vs. Blazers |
| 1/23 | vs. Rockets |
| 1/25 | vs. Clippers |
| 1/28 | vs. Wizards |
| 1/30 | vs. Bulls |
| 1/31 | @ Warriors |
| 2/2 | vs. Grizzlies |
| 2/5 | @ Blazers |
| 2/6 | vs. Jazz |
Eight of the Suns' next 10 tilts see them face Western Conference squads, against which they're just 11-12. Matchups with the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz incite little angst yet project as trap games.
While the Suns are 3-0 against the Lakers this season, five of Los Angeles' 12 wins have come when facing playoff-bound squads. The Jazz, meanwhile, are already 1-0 against Phoenix. That game also comes on the tail end of a back-to-back, and the Suns are only 3-7 in such situations.
And those are the "gimme" opponents. Each of the Suns' other eight games come against above-.500 teams. They're 8-11 when going up against squads .500 or better this season.
Six of those eight drills have the Suns squaring off against West contingents specifically. They're 4-6 when facing fellow top-eight factions. If that sample is expanded to include the Pelicans and Thunder—the West's top 10 teams—they're an even worse 4-9.
Five different clubs make up that six-game portion: Portland Trail Blazers (twice), Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets and Warriors. The Suns are a combined 1-5 against those teams, their lone victory coming over Golden State early in the season, before the Warriors were, you know, historical and stuff.
All this will be unfolding while the Thunder enjoy a far more favorable schedule. They will play 10 games through Feb. 6 as well, only one of which comes against a Western Conference playoff team (Memphis). Six of their next 10 opponents also hail from the Eastern Conference. They're 9-5 against the East this season and a perfect 6-0 when Durant plays.
It's entirely feasible the Suns fall out of eighth place by the end of this 10-game span. If the Thunder go 7-3 or 8-2, Phoenix has to play .500 basketball just to maintain its standing.
None of which is an exact science. The Thunder could struggle or the Suns could rise. The latter seems likely, if not inevitable, after they bolstered their rotation with the additions of Brandan Wright and Reggie Bullock.
Wright is particularly valuable. The Suns already rank sixth in offensive efficiency, but their defense is 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in rim protection. Landing the athletic Wright gives them a chance at sneaking into the top half defensive efficiency overall.
Phoenix has also won 12 of its last 16 games and will play of the next 10 at home. Though the team is on pace to nab between 46 and 47 victories by season's end, its win-total ceiling threatens to explode should this hot streak continue.
But that's just the thing. Recent success hasn't catapulted the Suns light years ahead of their competition or, more importantly, themselves.
As AZ Central's Paul Coro previously pointed out:
"At 23-18, the Suns are just one win off of last season's midpoint record that came as Eric Bledsoe was out following knee surgery. They could feel good about the record and injury-free roster, considering they are 20-13 when point guards Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas all play and have played four more road games than at this stage last season.
They also have the NBA's fourth most difficult remaining schedule.
"
Following Friday's 110-99 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Suns are now 24-18. Forty-seven victories won't get them a playoff berth, even when you consider their main priority is warding off Oklahoma City, not improving by leaps and bounds.
The Thunder need only finish 28-14 to secure 48 victories and theoretically jump the Suns. That's hardly ambitious knowing they've won more than 70 percent (12-5) of the games in which Durant has played.
Said winning rate hits 75 percent (12-4) when removing the Thunder's Dec. 18 loss to Golden State from the equation. They led by as many as 17 points before bending and ultimately breaking once Durant was forced to leave the game with a sprained ankle.
Let's assume, then, the Thunder win 30 of their remaining 42 games for the sake of this argument. That's par for the Durant-led course and would mean the Suns must go 27-13 to finish one game (51-31) better than them.
Is that likely when the Suns are just 24-18? When they've already played one of the league's six easiest schedules, according to ESPN.com? When they have the fourth-most difficult schedule remaining? When the Pelicans are still hanging around
When the Suns have two bouts left against the Thunder themselves, whom they are already 0-2 against?
"We can nitpick all day about (our record)," Eric Bledsoe said, per Arizona Sports' Craig Grialou, "but at the end of the day we're sitting in a great position."
Great is such a strong word. Too strong.
Breathing room is paramount now, and the Suns don't have it. Three games worth of distance isn't even close to enough.
Coming out the other end of Feb. 6 still in eighth place, with 30 games left to play, puts them in position to drive the Thunder away for good. That may demand they go 5-5, 6-4, 7-3 or better. Whatever magic number allows them to keep their playoff buffer intact, the Suns need to, at minimum, reach it and go from there.
Anything less puts them at the behest of the Thunder, forcing them to play a game of catch-up that's mentally draining and a foredoomed failure.
Thriving—not just surviving—this 10-game blitzkrieg will be the only way the Suns remain in control of their fragile postseason fate.
Which, knowing how dangerous the whole-again Thunder can be, only means they'll retain the right to keep fighting from a position of pruning power.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Jan. 18, 2015.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
