Does Dirk Nowitzki Still Deserve a Spot on the 2015 NBA All-Star Team?
Dirk Nowitzki has been a regular attraction at the NBA All-Star Game for over a decade. The competition to represent the Western Conference in the exhibition is excruciating this year, but the German is still in the running.
Excluding an injury-riddled 2012-13 campaign, Nowitzki hasn't missed an All-Star game since 2002. In his 17 years in the league, the sharp-shooting big man has mesmerized the league with his fadeaway jumpers on his way to 12 All-Star appearances.
Nowitzki, 36, will eventually face the same fate as San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan (38), who missed out on the festivities last year and is unlikely to build on his 14 All-Star appearances. Dirk's numbers have declined this season, but there is no reason for him to make other plans for the February 13-15 weekend just yet.
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The competition is fierce in the West. Young players entering their primes have already established themselves as perennial All-Stars, while breakout stars are shaking up the field even more.
Before arguing Dirk's case, it's important to put his performances this season in perspective with the competition he will be facing.
Top Candidates
The third returns of the NBA All-Star ballot provided a pretty clear picture of whom the starters will be this year. There is still some wiggle room, and players can certainly catch up, but this starting five will most likely represent the West:
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans), Blake Griffin (Los Angeles Clippers), Marc Gasol (Memphis Grizzlies).
Backcourt: Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers), Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors).
The starters are voted in by the fans, so it's no surprise that Bryant, who is playing for one of the worst teams in the league this season, is one of the beneficiaries of this system.
Bryant might not have done enough to truly earn his spot the hard way this year, but his inevitable appearance will make the reserve selection process even harder.
NBA coaches will be nominating the reserves, picking three frontcourt players, two guards and two wild cards of any position. Some players can be considered virtual locks for the spots already, considering their team's position in the standings and their individual contributions so far.
The following have already made very strong cases and are unlikely to get snubbed, unless something drastically changes:
| Chris Paul | Los Angeles Clippers |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | Portland Trail Blazers |
| Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers |
| James Harden | Houston Rockets |
| Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder |
Winning teams are often heavily represented at the All-Star game, so it might not be a complete lock for the Thunder's dynamic duo to get the nod. Both Westbrook and Durant have missed time with injuries, but they have been fantastic when healthy. Even though Oklahoma City sits outside a playoff spot right with with an 18-19 record, they have been significantly better than that when their two superstars have played.
Assuming the aforementioned guys make the cut, the final reserve will have to be a frontcourt player. DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), Dwight Howard(Rockets) and Duncan (Spurs) should be the three primary candidates other than Nowitzki.
Howard hasn't missed a single All-Star game since 2007, but his case isn't as compelling this year. He has played just 25 games due to nagging injuries, and the Rockets have done just fine in his absence. On the flip side, if Houston remains a top-three seed in the West for another month, the team could very well send two All-Stars to Brooklyn.
Duncan missed the game last year, and he is putting up virtually the same numbers this season. The Spurs are currently seventh in the Western standings, so it's not inconceivable for the reigning champions to be without an All-Star if things don't improve soon.
Cousins is the true wild card that could make some noise. He has been the most dominant big man in the NBA and is an unstoppable force anywhere even remotely close to the basket. His injury woes and the Kings being out of playoff contention hurts his case, but individually he is a very deserving candidate.
While playing 33 minutes per game, Cousins is averaging 23.9 points and 12.3 rebounds, both career-highs. Cousins blows Dirk away in the statistical department, and he is well on his way to becoming a perennial All-Star. However, there are several other factors that the German has going in his favor that might delay the passing of the torch.
Nowitzki's Case
Dirk's numbers this season won't blow anyone away. He is scoring 18.6 points and grabbing 5.9 rebounds per game, while connecting on just 34.1 percent of his three-point shots (his worst accuracy since 2003-04 season).
Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has held his superstar on a tight leash, limiting Nowitzki to under 30 minutes per game for the first time since his rookie season.
When compared to Portland's Aldridge, Nowitzki's per-36 minutes adjusted numbers actually stack up relatively well. Dirk plays farther away from the basket and grabs fewer rebounds, but their scoring output is virtually the same.
Statistically, Nowitzki's case isn't the strongest, but there is more to his All-Star narrative.
Coaches generally credit winning teams when making their selections, and Dallas is currently just a half-game behind Houston and the third seed in the West. Assuming the Mavs manage to maintain a top-four position in their conference, it will be hard to deny the team at least one All-Star.
Monta Ellis has also made a solid case for himself, but he is competing against too many other elite guards (even Golden State's Klay Thompson was left out in the hypothetical reserve selection above).
So assuming the Mavs do send one representative, Nowitzki is the guy. What he has lacked in raw individual numbers this season, he has made up with his ever-present and unique impact on Dallas' league-leading offense. For instance, take a look at this possession:
Nowitzki finds himself in a mismatch in semi-transition, which causes complete chaos in the Clippers' defense. They have four bodies in position to rotate and help, and every single defender is looking at Dirk. Once Nowitzki catches the ball, J.J. Barea's defender completely ignores his baseline cut and joins in on a triple-team on Dirk, who eventually gets fouled.
This is no news. Nowitzki has been a double-team magnet for most of his career, and he remains a lethal post player even at the age of 36.
Carlisle has attempted to keep Dirk away from the post as much as possible this season, utilizing him as a pick-and-pop threat to save his body for the playoffs. That was an effective strategy when Dallas had the now-departed Jameer Nelson stretching the floor.
With Rajon Rondo on the Mavs' roster, Carlisle has tried to combat the cramped spacing by jump-starting possessions through Nowitzki in the post. Plays similar to the one in the video example above are relatively common as a result. Just by being on the floor, Dirk is able to single-handedly bend and compromise defenses around him.
Dallas' offensive numbers have taken a hit with Rondo, but any attacking unit built around Nowitzki will survive. His versatile presence in itself has allowed Dallas' new starting point guard to ease into the offense.
The competition for All-Star spots is as tough as it's ever been. Still, assuming the Mavs are able to maintain their win rate, Nowitzki is more than worthy of a nomination.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
