Projecting How the Miami Heat Roster Will Look After 2015 Season
Change is in the air in Miami.
After a summer that saw the four-time defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat effectively disassembled, most saliently with the departure of LeBron James, even more turnover—it appears—is on the way.
The roster, again, is already wildly dissimilar from the one that fell to the San Antonio Spurs in six games during last season’s NBA Finals. Shane Battier and Ray Allen are retired. LeBron has gone home. Michael Beasley is in China. Five of the 10 minutes leaders on the 2013-14 squad are no longer with the team.
The change, of course, wasn’t for the better. According to ESPN.com, the Heat had the second-best offense in the sport a season ago. Today, they sit at No. 17.
Their 11th-ranked defense has fallen to 26th, per ESPN.com. The Heat won 54 games in 2013-14—even that was a huge disappointment following a 66-win campaign—but this year the franchise is on pace for just 35.
But the changes that are on the horizon could bolster Miami significantly. It’s change we can believe in.
The Heat, according to whispers in the media—which are, in turn, reinforced by the team’s recent history—are angling to make a big splash in summer 2016.
"Pat Riley has put everything into 2016,” the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman told Miami radio station 560 WQAM. “His 2016 is like his 2010. He’s going to sit back, deal with the results and go for the big splash.”
It's a fine offseason for a cannonball. Superstars Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, near-stars Joakim Noah and Nicolas Batum and a coterie of other major difference-makers could be on the market. And the Heat are poised to strike.
Armed with the well-documented persuasive powers of Pat Riley, the pull of South Beach and enough cash to payroll a Star Wars reboot, Miami could—and is a good bet to—return the franchise to the top of the NBA hierarchy.
The Heat, according to HoopsHype.com, have only $28 million committed for the 2016-17 season—the entirety of it to Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts.
In a year when the salary cap is expected to balloon due to the TV money that will pour into the league—the cap, according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe, could jump all the way to $80 million as a result of the $2.7 billion broadcasting rights deal the league inked with ESPN and Turner—that leaves the Heat with a crazy amount of dough to throw around. And, again, a hell of a fine group of players to throw it at.
The Heat could, theoretically, sign two players to the full max and still have about $10 million to flesh out the rest of the roster. If they find a way to jettison McRoberts, who’s disappointed since coming to Miami from the Charlotte Hornets (nee Bobcats), they’ll have even more money to play with.
It’s not difficult to envisage a Miami starting five, entering 2016-17, of something like Chris Paul running the point, Dwyane Wade—signed for a hometown discount—manning the 2, Batum at 3, Bosh at 4 and Noah at center. That’s a lineup that, while a little long in the tooth, could fit under the cap and would almost certainly have the upper hand in an Eastern Conference that should still lag well behind its Western counterpart.
Granted, this is a long shot at best, but so was landing Chris Bosh and LeBron James in 2010. In the hothouse that is NBA free agency, anything is possible.
Incredibly Optimistic, Insanely Unlikely, But Technically Fiscally Possible Heat Lineup Projection for 2016-17
| Point Guard | Shooing Guard | Small Forward | Power Forward | Center |
| Chris Paul | Dwyane Wade | Nicolas Batum | Chris Bosh | Joakim Noah |
Alternatively, if a losing 2014-15 makes Miami management antsy, the Heat could strike this summer. Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs and Jimmy Butler of the Bulls—both nascent superstars on the right side of 25—are restricted free agents who failed to come to terms with their respective teams during the exclusive negotiating rights period.
Butler, for one, maintains he wants to return to Chicago, but with the Bulls already highly leveraged, and with the best offer they’ve made to him a reported four-year, $40-million pact, according to the Chicago Sun-Times, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could bolt.
This actually might be the better play for the Heat. If Miami can land one of Butler or Leonard this summer, not only would it gain a young piece to develop and build around, but it also would strengthen its case the following summer. A team with two stars—Butler/Leonard and Bosh—is a more appealing landing spot for a stud like Chris Paul than a squad with one.
There would, of course, be some cap gymnastics Miami would have to swing to free up spending money for the summer.
While the Heat will have relatively clean books in summer 2016, next year, according to HoopsHype.com, they’ll still be on the hook for almost $70 million.
But that could change. Luol Deng has a $10 million player option for next season, but the Memphis Grizzlies, according to ESPN, are considering a trade for the small forward.
If the Heat can clear Deng and, say, McRoberts' salary for next season, that frees up $15 million they could throw at one of Butler/Leonard. If Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen retire, that’s another $7.8 million. If they find a new home for Mario Chalmers, that’s $4.3 million more they can spend.
The Heat are down right now, but they won’t stay that way for long. Miami has stayed relevant in the past two decades by embracing change, not shying away from it.
And, even for a franchise that’s accustomed to turnover, some serious shifts are ahead.
Get ready, Heat fans. And get excited.
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